A critical analysis of processes governing the nutrient profiles in the ocean

We have theoretically considered the problem of interpretation of nutrient profiles in the upper ocean (100–2000m). We compare the experimental depth profiles of nonconservative tracers, both stable and radioactive, with solutions of one-dimensional steady state transport equations of increasing complexity including situations not encountered in the real oceans. Apart from gaining insight into the nutrient transport processes, this analysis is useful in offering a way to obtain operational estimates of depth dependent/independent eddy diffusivity and dissolution fluxes in the ocean. These parameters are essential for estimating new production, total production and burial of carbon in the sediments.     

Lower Tropospheric Warm Air Advection Patterns Associated with Heavy Rainfall over the Appalachian Region*

A synoptic climatology of warm season heavy rainfall is developed from patterns of 850 mb thermal advection over the Appalachian region. Heavy rain events are categorized according to the position and orientation of a warm air advection (WAA) ridge, a feature found in nearly two-thirds of the events. Numerous study events occur within the conditionally unstable region of the WAA ridge. In fact, numerous occurrences of heavy rainfall are tied to a superpositioning of a WAA and air mass instability ridge in the vicinity or upstream of the heavy rain area.     

望儿山金矿生产勘探超前期限与范围合理性的选择和应用

望儿山金矿浅部生产已接近尾声,其生产正向深部转移,但望儿山金矿深部地质条件十分复杂,为使其生产能更好的延续下去,通过对生产勘探的超前期限与范围合理性的研究和探讨,在总结前人经验的基础上,根据望儿山金矿实际,采用价值法的分析,得出其现有生产勘探合理的超前期限与范围.     

The numerical solution of the Advection-Dispersion Equation: A review of some basic principles

The simulation of solute transport in rivers is frequently based on numerical models of the Advection-Dispersion Equation. The construction of reliable computational schemes, however, is not necessarily easy. The paper reviews some of the most important issues in this regard, taking the finite volume method as the basis of the simulation, and compares the performance of several types of scheme for a simple case of the transport of a patch of solute along a uniform river. The results illustrate some typical (and well known) deficiencies of explicit schemes and compare the contrasting performance of implicit and semi-Lagrangian versions of the same schemes. It is concluded that the latter have several benefits over the other types of scheme.     

A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.     

Long‐term landscape evolution: linking tectonics and surface processes

Research in landscape evolution over millions to tens of millions of years slowed considerably in the mid‐20th century, when Davisian and other approaches to geomorphology were replaced by functional, morphometric and ultimately process‐based approaches. Hack's scheme of dynamic equilibrium in landscape evolution was perhaps the major theoretical contribution to long‐term landscape evolution between the 1950s and about 1990, but it essentially ‘looked back’ to Davis for its springboard to a viewpoint contrary to that of Davis, as did less widely known schemes, such as Crickmay's hypothesis of unequal activity. Since about 1990, the field of long‐term landscape evolution has blossomed again, stimulated by the plate tectonics revolution and its re‐forging of the link between tectonics and topography, and by the development of numerical models that explore the links between tectonic processes and surface processes. This numerical modelling of landscape evolution has been built around formulation of bedrock river processes and slope processes, and has mostly focused on high‐elevation passive continental margins and convergent zones; these models now routinely include flexural and denudational isostasy. Major breakthroughs in analytical and geochronological techniques have been of profound relevance to all of the above. Low‐temperature thermochronology, and in particular apatite fission track analysis and (U–Th)/He analysis in apatite, have enabled rates of rock uplift and denudational exhumation from relatively shallow crustal depths (up to about 4 km) to be determined directly from, in effect, rock hand specimens. In a few situations, (U–Th)/He analysis has been used to determine the antiquity of major, long‐wavelength topography. Cosmogenic isotope analysis has enabled the determination of the ‘ages’ of bedrock and sedimentary surfaces, and/or the rates of denudation of these surfaces. These latter advances represent in some ways a ‘holy grail’ in geomorphology in that they enable determination of ‘dates and rates’ of geomorphological processes directly from rock surfaces. The increasing availability of analytical techniques such as cosmogenic isotope analysis should mean that much larger data sets become possible and lead to more sophisticated analyses, such as probability density functions (PDFs) of cosmogenic ages and even of cosmogenic isotope concentrations (CICs). PDFs of isotope concentrations must be a function of catchment area geomorphology (including tectonics) and it is at least theoretically possible to infer aspects of source area geomorphology and geomorphological processes from PDFs of CICs in sediments (‘detrital CICs’). Thus it may be possible to use PDFs of detrital CICs in basin sediments as a tool to infer aspects of the sediments' source area geomorphology and tectonics, complementing the standard sedimentological textural and compositional approaches to such issues. One of the most stimulating of recent conceptual advances has followed the considerations of the relationships between tectonics, climate and surface processes and especially the recognition of the importance of denudational isostasy in driving rock uplift (i.e. in driving tectonics and crustal processes). Attention has been focused very directly on surface processes and on the ways in which they may ‘drive’ rock uplift and thus even influence sub‐surface crustal conditions, such as pressure and temperature. Consequently, the broader geoscience communities are looking to geomorphologists to provide more detailed information on rates and processes of bedrock channel incision, as well as on catchment responses to such bedrock channel processes. More sophisticated numerical models of processes in bedrock channels and on their flanking hillslopes are required. In current numerical models of long‐term evolution of hillslopes and interfluves, for example, the simple dependency on slope of both the fluvial and hillslope components of these models means that a Davisian‐type of landscape evolution characterized by slope lowering is inevitably ‘confirmed’ by the models. In numerical modelling, the next advances will require better parameterized algorithms for hillslope processes, and more sophisticated formulations of bedrock channel incision processes, incorporating, for example, the effects of sediment shielding of the bed. Such increasing sophistication must be matched by careful assessment and testing of model outputs using pre‐established criteria and tests. Confirmation by these more sophisticated Davisian‐type numerical models of slope lowering under conditions of tectonic stability (no active rock uplift), and of constant slope angle and steady‐state landscape under conditions of ongoing rock uplift, will indicate that the Davis and Hack models are not mutually exclusive. A Hack‐type model (or a variant of it, incorporating slope adjustment to rock strength rather than to regolith strength) will apply to active settings where there is sufficient stream power and/or sediment flux for channels to incise at the rate of rock uplift. Post‐orogenic settings of decreased (or zero) active rock uplift would be characterized by a Davisian scheme of declining slope angles and non‐steady‐state (or transient) landscapes. Such post‐orogenic landscapes deserve much more attention than they have received of late, not least because the intriguing questions they pose about the preservation of ancient landscapes were hinted at in passing in the 1960s and have recently re‐surfaced. As we begin to ask again some of the grand questions that lay at the heart of geomorphology in its earliest days, large‐scale geomorphology is on the threshold of another ‘golden’ era to match that of the first half of the 20th century, when cyclical approaches underpinned virtually all geomorphological work. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

辽宁岫岩5.4级地震临震预测

简要介绍了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩Ms5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析，确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律，判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析，进一步论述了震前预测地震三要素的基本依据。     

利用地磁场总强度预测地震三要素初探

计算了河南省6个台站的相邻时段的地磁场总强度观测资料的自相关系数分析了各台自相关系数的变化与地震的关系，各台的自相关系数曲线对应地震的效果较好，发震时间一般在异常低值后1-8个月，统计得出了各台所对应的地震震级与自相关系数异常面积和震中距的经验公式，利用3个以上台站的经验公式和交汇法，即可以求出震中位置和地震震级，经震例检验，该方法基本可行。     

随州-信阳ML4.2地震前定点形变异常特征

分析了2000年1月28日随州和信阳交界处发生的ML4．2地震前，信阳地震台（△＝35km)定点形变中短期及临震异常特征。分析研究表明：该次地震前信阳台目视水管倾斜仪EW向测值从1999年6开始出现反向变化，NS向测值从1999年3月开始出现加速变化；水平摆倾余仪EW向和NS向测值分别从1999年2月和1999年6月开始出现反向变化。这些异常于2000年下半年结束。震前3天水管倾斜仪EW向测值出现加速变化；震前5－8天NS向测值除了出现加速变化外，还出现突跳。城前约20天，水平摆倾斜仪2个方向测值构出现了准周期性波动变化。另外，形变固体潮潮汐因子也有明显异常。     

地震非均匀度在华北地震中短期预报中的应用

利用空间扫描方法研究了华北地区中强以上地震前地震非均匀度GL值的中短期异常变化特征，结果表明在中强地震前1年左右，未来震中周围的GL值中期异常区通常出现明显的收缩或消失，一些地震临震前数月还再次出现GL值异常区，讨论了使用GL值进行地震中短期预报的有关问题。