Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

同步辐射软X射线吸收谱与发射谱测定天然针铁矿能带结构

天然半导体矿物由于成分、缺陷复杂,传统测试方法如紫外可见漫反射等难以准确测定其禁带宽度.本文以针铁矿为例,通过第一性原理计算得到纯针铁矿及掺Al针铁矿的电子结构.计算结果显示,纯针铁矿导带底与价带顶均由Fe3d与O2p轨道组成,而当含杂质Al时,Al2p与O2p发生杂化参与了价带组成.在此基础上,利用同步辐射X射线氧的K边吸收谱与发射谱对纯针铁矿及天然针铁矿的能带结构进行了测定.结果表明,天然含Al的针铁矿禁带宽度为2.30eV,小于纯针铁矿(2.57eV).本研究提供了一种测定天然氧化物矿物禁带宽度的新方法,为深入研究天然半导体可见光催化活性产生机制提供了理论依据.     

北京某山坡湿陷性土层地基处理可行性分析与建议

北京市密云区某拟建别墅工程,属于山体边坡地基基础工程,任务要求对湿陷性地基土层进行湿陷性消除,并将其地基土承载力特征值提高到fak≥130 kPa。此外,还需要考虑边坡稳定性及其永久性加固问题。对该项目进行了深入分析、研究,并采用概念设计方法,对其进行设计预演,发现该项目存在工序复杂、不易实施、在永久性使用方面存在一定隐患、并具有责任不当等问题。对该地基基础工程进行了重新分析,建议取消地基处理措施,改用嵌岩桩作为拟建物的基础。     

固相吸附毒素跟踪技术(SPATT)在浙江南麂海域的应用

浙江南麂岛海域是我国近岸贝类的重点养殖区,近年来一直遭受脂溶性贝类毒素(lipophilic shellfish toxins,LSTs)的污染,威胁着人类健康。为了建立有效的食品安全预警方法,本研究利用固相吸附毒素跟踪技术(solid phase adsorption toxin tracking,SPATT)在该海域进行了为期一年的野外监测和LSTs毒素分析。结果表明:7种LSTs毒素在SPATT(DIAION?HP20)中被检出,分别是大田软海绵酸(okadaic acid,OA)、鳍藻毒素-1(dinophysistoxin-1,DTX-1)、虾夷扇贝毒素(yessotoxin,YTX)及其衍生物homo YTX、扇贝毒素-2(pectenotoxin-2,PTX-2)及其衍生物7-epi-PTX2sa和环亚胺毒素(gymnodimine,GYM);有8种毒素在厚壳贻贝(Mytilus galloprovincialis)中被检出,分别是OA、DTX1、homo YTX、PTX2、7-epi-PTX2sa、GYM、原多甲藻酸贝类毒素-3(azaspiracid-3,AZA-3)和虾夷扇贝毒素衍生物45-OH-homo YTX。整体而言,SPATT(HP20)中吸附的毒素种类与贝肉中监测出的毒素种类大体上一致,且两者间OA、DTX1和PTX2的浓度在时间上具有较好的相关性,可见SPATT(HP20)对这些LSTs毒素具有较高的灵敏度,有望作为水体中LSTs毒素的预警监测材料。南麂岛海域LSTs分布特征明显,夏季最高,其次是春秋季,冬季最低,其中2014年夏季贝肉中OA毒素含量高达77.19ng/g贝肉,超出国家限量标准(45ng/g贝肉)比例达11.76%,为浙江南麂海域贻贝的食用安全带来隐患。     

围填海对海洋水动力与生态环境的影响

近10年来,中国海岸带围填海活动呈现出规模大、速度快的发展态势。围填海能带来显著的经济效益,但对海洋环境与生态的负面影响也不可忽视。针对围填海对海洋环境和生态的影响及作用机制,分别从水动力和生态系统两个方面进行了概述。围填海改变了海洋的自然几何属性(原始岸线、地形地貌、海湾面积),引起水动力环境的变化(潮汐系统和海湾水交换能力),进而影响了海湾的环境容量;围填海破坏了生物栖息地、导致生物多样性的丧失,影响到生态系统结构与功能的稳定性;水动力与生物多样性的变化可显著影响到生物地球化学过程,加速富营养化进程,恶化水质,增加生态灾害风险。目前,围填海后的生态修复策略主要有增加生物量、建设自然保护区、退陆还海3种方式;而生态补偿策略则多基于“生态系统服务功能与生境面积的大小为线性关系”,通过对其经济价值的量化后进行生态补偿与实施相关政策。国际上,生态系统服务功能的量化参数逐步纳入实际管理,并在线性关系研究的基础上,逐步纳入一些非线性的理念,使生态补偿机制更为合理化;而我国对于围填海生态效应的定量化研究及科学理论在管理政策中的实际应用仍亟待提高。整体而言,全面、准确地评估围填海对海洋环境与生态的影响离不开自然科学与社会科学的交叉与融合。     

Geological control factors of micro oil distribution in tight reservoirs

Understanding the oil distribution characteristics in unconventional tight reservoirs is crucial for hydrocarbon evaluation and oil/gas extraction from such reservoirs. Previous studies on tight oil distribution characteristics are mostly concerned with the basin scale. Based on Lucaogou core samples, geochemical approaches including Soxhlet extraction, total organic carbon (TOC), and Rock-Eval are combined with reservoir physical approaches including mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) and porosity-permeability analysis, to quantitatively evaluate oil distribution of tight reservoirs on micro scale. The emphasis is to identify the key geological control factors of micro oil distribution in such tight reservoirs. Dolomicrites and non-detrital mudstones have excellent hydrocarbon generation capacity while detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones have higher porosity and oil content, and coarser pore throat radius. Oil content is mainly controlled by porosity, pore throat radius, and hydrocarbon generation capacity. Porosity is positively correlated with oil content in almost all samples including various lithologies, indicating that it is a primary constraint for providing storage space. Pore throat radius is also an important factor, as oil migration is inhibited by the capillary pressure which must be overcome. If the reservoir rock with suitable porosity has no hydrocarbon generation capacity, pore throat radius will be decisive. As tight reservoirs are generally characterized by widely distributed nanoscale pore throats and high capillary pressure, hydrocarbon generation capacity plays an important role in reservoir rocks with suitable porosity and fine pore throats. Because such reservoir rocks cannot be charged completely. The positive correlation between hydrocarbon generation capacity and oil content in three types of high porosity lithologies (detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones) supports this assertion.     

Microstructural characteristics of the Whitby Mudstone Formation (UK)

When trying to improve gas productivity from unconventional sources a first aim is to understand gas storage and gas flow potential through the rock by investigating the microstructure, mineralogy and matrix porosity of unfractured shale. The porosity and mineralogy of the Mulgrave Shale member of the Whitby Mudstone Formation (UK) were characterized using a combination of microscopy, X-ray diffraction and gas adsorption methods on samples collected from outcrops. The Whitby Mudstone is an analogue for the Dutch Posidonia Shale which is a possible unconventional source for gas. The Mulgrave shale member of the Whitby Mudstone Formation can microstructurally be subdivided into a fossil rich (>15%) upper half and a sub-mm mineralogically laminated lower half. All clasts are embedded within a fine-grained matrix (all grains < 2 μm) implying that any possible flow of gas will depend on the porosity and the pore network present within this matrix. The visible SEM porosity (pore diameter > 100 nm) is in the order of 0.5–2.5% and shows a non-connected pore network in 2D. Gas adsorption (N2, Ar, He) porosity (pore diameters down to 2 nm) has been measured to be 0.3–7%. Overall more than 40% of the visible porosity is present within the matrix. Comparing the Whitby Mudstone Formation to other (producing) gas shales shows that the rock plots in the low porosity and high clay mineral content range, which could imply that Whitby Mudstone shales could be less favourable to mechanical fracturing than other gas shales. Estimated permeability indicates values in the micro-to nano-darcy range.     

基于高效生态农业布局导向性的资源环境承载力评价—以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例

该文在对研究区资源环境本底基本了解的基础上,建立了包括耕地资源、水资源、社会经济资源、土壤环境、极端气候发生率和地质环境6个二级指标的资源环境承载力评价指标体系,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,利用层次分析法确定相关指标权重,分别对6个要素进行承载力评价。在各单元要素评价基础上,结合黄河三角洲高效生态经济区农业发展要求,划分出了沿海湿地生态系统保护带、北部盐渍化土质特色种植区、南部优质粮食生产区和果蔬集中种植区4个生态农业布局适宜区,并提出发展建议。     

基于主成分分析的济宁市环境承载力研究

该文以济宁市环境承载力为研究对象,运用主成分分析法,从影响环境污染状况、环境治理状况、人口状况、经济发展状况、自然资源状况、物耗能耗状况等19个指标中,提取出影响环境承载力动态变化的3个主成分,对济宁市环境承载力年际变化进行了综合评价。结果表明:2006—2010年,济宁市环境承载力呈现逐年上升的趋势。该研究评价结果较好,可以为该地区的可持续开发规划提供理论参考。     

腐蚀管道在内压和轴向压力影响下的弯曲破坏

运行在恶劣环境中的海底管道,往往受到内压、轴力和弯矩等复杂荷载的联合作用。腐蚀会导致管壁局部变薄,降低管道极限承载力。为保证管道安全高效运行,准确预测和分析复杂荷载作用下的塑性极限承载力和变形行为就显得尤为重要。考虑大应变和大变形、应力强化和材料非线性,运用数值仿真软件建立腐蚀缺陷管道的三维实体有限元模型,在全尺寸管道破坏试验验证的基础上,对腐蚀管道在内压、轴向压力和弯矩相互作用下的失效模式和极限弯矩承载力进行了相关研究,并进行了腐蚀缺陷几何参数的敏感性分析。研究结果表明:初始内压和初始轴向压力会显著降低腐蚀管道的极限弯矩承载力,并且影响最终的失效模式;在腐蚀缺陷几何尺寸参数中,腐蚀宽度比腐蚀深度和腐蚀长度的影响更大。