海进体系域碳氧同位素地球化学响应——以黔西南地区三叠系为例

层序地层研究表明,位于扬子地块西南缘的黔西南地区在中三叠世末期(相当于Ladinian-Carnian期)出现了一次与全球同步的大规模海侵,形成了一个向上变深的碳酸盐岩台地淹没沉积层序。垄头组顶部和竹竿坡组分别是海进体系域(TST)的下、上部分。碳、氧同位素研究表明,垄头组顶部自下而上δ(18O)持续增大,而δ(13C)先逐渐增大,后在顶部界面附近快速下降,反映了垄头组顶部在暴露环境下氧化作用的结果。竹竿坡组δ(13C)自下而上逐渐增大,δ(18O)总体呈现逐渐减小趋势,反映了海平面变化特征。研究认为,海进体系域的δ(13C)和δ(18O)演化不但反映了海平面和沉积环境变化,同时对密集段(CS)、层序界面和古暴露面等也有很好的识别作用,在层序地层研究中具有重要的意义。     

华北夏季旱涝的前期环流异常及其与北太平洋海温的关系

文章分析了华北地区夏季旱涝的前期春季大气环流和北太平洋海温异常（SSTA）分布特征,探讨SSTA与异常环流的关系,并用OSU-AGCM进行黑潮地区热源异常强迫的数值试验。结果表明,当春季北极低涡明显减弱,欧亚大陆中高纬度地区纬向环流加强,西太平洋副高位置偏北偏西,且存在负PNA型异常环流时,华北地区夏季多雨涝;反之则少雨干旱。此时,西北太平洋和赤道东太平洋SST分别存在较大的正、负异常,它们与春季环流异常密切相关,黑潮区SSTA对北半球副热带及其以北的大气环流产生显著影响,正的SSTA是造成华北夏涝年的前期春季异常环流形势的重要因素。     

1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估

利用1901~2013年中国大陆地区的气象台站实测降水资料,对东英吉利（East Anglia）大学气候研究中心（Climatic Research Unit,CRU）和全球降水气候中心（Global Precipitation Climatology Centre,GPCC）的降水资料分别从季节、年际和年代际尺度上进行了评估。结果表明：1961~2013年CRU与GPCC降水资料均能较准确地描述中国大陆地区的降水特征,且在东部较西部地区、夏季较冬季与站点实测降水情况更为一致。将中国大陆划分为不同区域并在其季节、年际和年代际时间尺度上通过比较降水偏差绝对值的百分比、均方根误差和相关系数等统计量后发现：CRU在青藏高原和其它较大的山脉附近与站点实测降水的差别较大,且年均降水趋势在西北一带的阿尔金山脉、黄土高原、东南地区和长江下游地区,比实测降水的年均趋势小、甚至出现趋势相反的情况。此外,CRU降水的年代际变化趋势也偏小。而GPCC数据不论是降水量还是降水趋势都更接近实际情况。在1901~1961年,通过与65个长期气象观测站点的降水时间序列比较发现,CRU在110°E以西地区与站点观测的降水资料间的差别较大,而GPCC与站点观测资料的吻合较好。最后,利用1961~2013年两套降水资料和站点实测资料分别计算了标准化降水指数（SPI）,简单分析了中国大陆地区的干旱变化,发现GPCC对旱涝的时空变化特征的描述比CRU更接近站点实际观测;并且CRU也没有反映出1997年夏季中国地区出现的严重干旱情况,而GPCC较为准确地反映出了这一干旱事件特征。因此,本文的研究结果认为,就中国大陆地区长时期降水资料而言,GPCC的适用性优于CRU。     

PCVSAT单收站常见故障分析及处理

多年来,PCVSAT单收站为天气预报、气候研究、气象信息服务等工作作出了重要贡献.     

Application of High Energy Dynamic Compaction in Coastal Reclamation Areas

High energy dynamic compaction (HEDC) is adopted in a coastal reclamation area because the grain size of backfilled soil mostly ranges between 20 cm and 100 cm. The in situ tests for evaluating the effectiveness of HEDC were performed on the backfilled soil ground. The crater depth per drop and the whole test zone elevations before and after HEDC were measured and analyzed. Dynamic penetration tests and spectral analysis of surface wave (SASW) tests were used for investigating the improvement depth. Furthermore, the allowable bearing capacity of HEDC treated ground was determined based on the results of plate-load tests. It was found that HEDC did not cause the ground surface heave during construction, and was more effective than low energy dynamic compaction (LEDC) in terms of applied energy utilization. Based on the test results, the improvement depth of HEDC at this site was not less than 14 m, and there was no obvious weak layer within the range of improvement depth. The allowable bearing capacities were larger than 160 kPa. The investigation results indicate that the HEDC technique is an effective way for improving backfilled coarse-grained soil in coastal reclamation areas. This technique helps to achieve both greater improvement depths and higher ground bearing capacities as compared with LEDC.     

Prediction of creep characteristic of rock under varying environment

The strain developed due to creep is mainly proportional to the logarithm of the time under load, and is mostly proportional to the stress and temperature. At higher temperature the creep rate falls slowly with respect to time, and the creep strain is proportional to a fractional power of time, with the exponent increasing as the temperature increases and reaching a value approximately one-third at temperatures of about 0.5°C. At these temperatures, the creep increases with stress according to a power greater than unity and possibly exponentially. It increases with temperature as (−U/kT), where U is an activation energy and k is Boltzman’s constant. There are different methods to determine the creep strain and the energy of Jog (B) including experimental methods, multivariate regression analysis, and by numerical simulation. These methods are less cumbersome and time consuming. In the present investigation, artificial neural network technique has been used for prediction of the creep strain and energy of Jog (B). Two different networks have been tested and validated. Both the networks have four input neurons and one hidden layer with five neurons, and one output neuron. The data for different rocks at temperatures up to 750°C under conditions of compressive or tortional stress are taken from the literatures. The training and testing data sets used were 163 and 14, respectively. To deal with the problem of overfitting of data, Bayesian regulation has been used and network is trained with suitable training epochs. The coefficients of correlation among the predicted and observed values are found high and they improve the confidence of the users. The mean absolute percentage error obtained are also very low.     

灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用

在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,经过不同方式的残差修正,分别建立了一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型和二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型。根据滑坡的监测资料,对变形曲线为光滑型滑坡(如黄龙西村滑坡、某滑坡)和阶跃型滑坡(如新滩滑坡、洒勒山新滑坡)分别建立了传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶、二阶残差修正模型,并对不同滑坡各模型的预测精度进行了分析比较。结果表明,残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。对变形曲线为光滑型的滑坡,二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度一般高于一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度;对变形曲线为阶跃型的滑坡,一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。     

SROCC:海洋热含量变化评估

工业革命以来,大气中温室气体不断增加,驱动了全球变暖。IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)指出,人类排放的温室气体导致的地球系统能量增加中90%以上都被海洋吸收,使得海洋增暖,海洋热含量增加。IPCC最新发布的《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)发现：自1970年以来,几乎确定海洋上层2000 m在持续增暖。1993—2017年间的增暖速率至少为1969—1993年的2倍,体现出显著的变暖增强趋势。此外,在20世纪90年代以后,2000 m以下的深海也已观测到了变暖信号,尤其是在南大洋(30°S以南)。在1970—2017年间,南大洋上层2000 m储存了全球海洋约35%~43%的热量,在2005—2017年期间增加到45%~62%。基于耦合气候模型预估,几乎可确定海洋将在21世纪持续增暖,2018—2100年间海洋热含量上升幅度可能是1970—2017年间的5~7倍(RCP8.5情景)或2~4倍(RCP2.6情景)。变暖导致的热膨胀效应贡献了1993年以来全球海平面上升的约43%。     

Constraints of Mantle and Crustal Sources Interaction during Orogenesis of Pre- and Post-collision Granitoids from the Northern Arabian-Nubian Shield: A Case Study from Wadi El-Akhder Granitoids,Southern Sinai,Egypt

The Egyptian older and younger granitic rocks emplaced during pre- and post-collision stages of Neoproterozoic Pan-African orogeny, respectively, are widely distributed in the southern Sinai Peninsula, constituting 70% of the basement outcrops. The Wadi El-Akhder, southwestern Sinai, is a mountainous terrain exposing two granitoid suites, namely the Wadi El-Akhder Older Granites (AOG) and the Homra Younger Granites (HYG). The AOG (granodiorites with subordinate tonalite compositions) have geochemical characteristics of medium-K calc-alkaline, metaluminous to mildly peraluminous granitoids formed in an island-arc environment, which are conformable with well-known Egyptian older granitoids rocks, whereas the HYG display calc-alkaline to slightly alkaline nature, peraluminous syeno-, monzogranites and alkali feldspar granites matching well those of the Egyptian younger granites. With respect to the AOG granitoids, the HYG granites contain lower Al2O3, FeO*, MgO, MnO, CaO, TiO2, Sr, Ba, and V, but higher Na2O, K2O, Nb, Zr, Th, and Rb. The AOG are generally characterized by enrichment in LILE and LREE and depletion in HFSE relative to N-MORB values (e.g., negative Nb and Ta anomalies). The geochemical features of the AOG follow assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC) trends indicative of extensive crustal contamination of magma derived from a mantle source. The chemical characteristics of the AOG are remarkably similar to those of subduction-related granitoids from the Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS). The compositional variations from monzogranites through syenogranites to alkali feldspar granite within HYG could not be explained by fractional crystallization solely. Correlating the whole-rock composition of the HYG to melts generated by experimental dehydration melting of meta-sedimentary and magmatic rocks reveals that they appear to be derived by extended melting of psammitic and pelitic metasediments, which is similar to the most of younger granitic suites in the ANS.     

水与流体饱和孔隙介质界面上非镜面反射声场的实验研究

用光学法和发射-接收法研究了水与流体饱和孔隙介质界面上声波的非镜面反射声场．测量了入射角θ_i为16°－80°范围内的反射系数R，记录了θ_i在Rayleigh波临界角θ_c附近±4°范围内两束反射波的反射角、波束位移△、波形和频谱．实验发现：(1)在θ_c附近±4°范围内，观察到θ_i两束反射波A和B，其中波束B沿界面有波束位移△，实验测出△随θ_i增大而减小，并非在θ_i=θ_c时最大．(2)反射角等于θ_i的波束的频谱很接近于入射波的频谱，反射角等于θ_c的波束的频谱相对于入射波有频谱的负偏移．(3)波束A的相位与发射换能器直达波的相位一致，波束B的相位与波束A相反