1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件气候变化特征

利用辽宁省52个气象台站逐日平均气温、 最高气温和最低气温数据, 使用国际通用的10种极端气候指数, 研究了1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件的气候变化特征. 结果表明: 年平均极端气温事件空间分布存在明显的地区差异. 时间尺度上, 1961-2012年辽宁省年及四季极端暖事件(暖昼日数、 暖夜日数、 夏季日数、 热带夜数和热浪持续指数)呈增加趋势, 极端冷事件(冷昼日数、 冷夜日数、 结冰日数、 霜冻日数和寒潮持续指数)呈减少趋势; 极端暖事件在20世纪90年代中期开始明显增加, 极端冷事件在20世纪80年代末期开始显著减少; 极端暖事件的变化速率要小于极端冷事件. 辽宁省气温日较差有增大的趋势, 极端暖(冷)事件的增加(减少)在秋季(冬季)最为显著. 空间变化上, 极端气温事件在全省基本都呈一致的增加或减少的分布. 多数极端气温事件均存在8 a左右的周期, 检测到的突变的时间大致在20世纪80年代中期到90年代末期. 20世纪80年代末期辽宁省气候变暖后, 极端暖事件和冷事件均有明显的增加和减少.     

羌塘盆地石炭—二叠系烃源岩地球化学特征讨论

长期以来,羌塘盆地烃源岩的研究一直限于中生代地层,而对其古生代地层生烃能力一直缺乏系统研究。针对这一问题,本文选择羌塘盆地石炭—二叠系8条剖面的暗色泥岩及碳酸盐岩样品,对其从有机质丰度、有机质类型和热演化程度等方面进行了有机地球化学特征的分析。研究发现,石炭—二叠系可能烃源岩类型包括泥岩和碳酸盐岩两种,其分布总体上受沉积相的控制,碳酸盐岩烃源岩可能为局限台地相发育的泥晶灰岩,而泥质烃源岩主要为三角洲及斜坡相发育的暗色泥岩及凝灰质泥岩。石炭—二叠纪泥岩有机碳含量较高,具有较好生烃能力,大多达到烃源岩标准,尤其是刻莫石炭系剖面及贡日二叠系剖面,大多为中等—好烃源岩。碳酸盐岩有机碳含量总体比较低,为非烃源岩。石炭—二叠系碳酸盐岩烃源岩有机质类型为Ⅱ1型,泥质烃源岩有机质类型主要为Ⅱ2-Ⅲ型。石炭—二叠系烃源岩热演化程度总体较高,除盆地东部刻莫石炭系剖面处在成熟阶段外,大都处在高成熟—过成熟阶段,非常有利于天然气的生成,具备良好的天然气勘探前景。     

Landsat时序变化检测综述

时序变化检测已成为当前Landsat数据主流的变化检测方法。本文从检测算法对比、时序数据构建和精度评价等方面对Landsat时序变化检测进行回顾和评述,进而提出Landsat时序变化检测当前所存在的问题,及其所面临的挑战。Landsat时序变化检测算法可大致归纳为轨迹拟合法、光谱-时间轨迹法、基于模型的方法3大类,这些算法大多基于森林扰动提出;变化检测常用指标有波段型、植被指数型、线性变换型、组合型4大类,每类指标的优势不同,可综合多类指标以更全面地检测不同扰动类型。尽管Landsat时序变化检测已取得长足发展,但仍然面临诸多挑战,其中最大挑战是缺少一致性的参考数据集进行变化检测精度评价。     

An insight into the performance of benthic classification indices tested in Eastern Mediterranean coastal waters

This work evaluates four indices that have been used for benthic macroinvertebrate ecological quality classification in the Mediterranean Sea. Our study was based on the data obtained from the participation of Greece and Cyprus in the Mediterranean Geographical Intercalibration group. The indices AMBI, M-AMBI, MEDOCC and BENTIX were applied to the available benthic species data, and the succession of the ecological groups along the graded values of each index was plotted. The level of agreement among methods was calculated, and the performance of each method in estimating ecological quality status was evaluated. AMBI, based on the Atlantic model, and its derivative M-AMBI overestimated the statuses, while MEDOCC showed the best level of agreement with BENTIX. BENTIX gives equal weight to tolerant and opportunistic species groups, which correlates them more closely than the other indices and makes BENTIX the most sensitive in detecting ecological disturbances in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, where tolerant and opportunistic groups seem to play an equally important role in the response of benthic communities to stressors.     

Towards the application of the Water Framework Directive in Italy: Assessing the potential of benthic tools in Adriatic coastal transitional ecosystems

The potential of four benthic indices (AMBI/M-AMBI, BENTIX, BITS) was assessed in Italian coastal transitional ecosystems. The community composition showed a strong dominance of lagoonal, tolerant species, and out of more of 400 species found, only about 40 taxa were dominant. The full agreement of the four indices on an undegraded (Good or better) or degraded (Moderate or worse) status occurred only in 32.3% of stations. This study evidenced that BENTIX is inappropriate for eutrophic Adriatic lagoons, and that in such environments M-AMBI classification is actually too much dependent on diversity and richness, and seems unable to capture some peculiarities of benthic assemblages in transitional waters. AMBI and BITS gave similar classifications despite the different level of taxonomic identification needed. The unmodified use of these indices might impair accurate assessment of ecological quality status and decision-making on the managers’ point of view.     

Multi-scale variation characteristics of polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere

By use of 1948-2007 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly geopotential data, a set of circulation indices are defined to characterize the polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere, including area-(S), intensity-(P) and centre position-(λc , φc) indices. Sea-sonal variation, interannual anomalies and their possible causes of 10 hPa polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere are analyzed by using these indices, the relationship between 10 hPa polar vortex strength and the Antarctic Oscillation are analyzed as well. The results show that: (1) the polar region at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere is controlled by anticyclone (cyclone) from Dec. to Jan. (from Mar. to Oct.), Feb. and Nov. are circulation transition seasons. (2) Intensity index (P) and area index (S) of anticy-clone (cyclone) in Jan. (Jul.) show a significant spike in the late 1970s, the anticyclone (cyclone) enhances (weakens) from ex-tremely weak (strong) oscillation to near the climatic mean before a spike, anticyclone tends to the mean state from very strong oscillation and cyclone oscillates in the weaker state after the spike. (3) There is significant interdecadal change for the anticyclone center in Jan., while markedly interannual variation for cyclone center in July. (4) The ozone anomalies can cause the interannual anomaly of the polar anticyclone at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere in Jan. (positive correlation between them), but it is not related to the polar cyclone anomalies. (5) There is notable negative correlation between the polar vortex intensity index P and the Antarctic Oscillation index (AAOI), thus AAOI can be represented by P.     

Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula

This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021–2050) and a distant-future (2069–2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961–1990).Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95th percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: linear trends for the entire period (1961–2098) estimated by the Theil-Sen method with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Kendall test, and climate-median differences between the two future climates and the past climate with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Whitney test. Significant inferences of climate change spatial patterns are made after these non-parametric statistics of the multi-model ensemble median, while the associated uncertainties are quantified by the spread of these statistics across the multi-model ensemble. Significant and robust climate change inferences of the spatial patterns are then obtained by building the climate change patterns using only the grid points where a significant climate change is found with a predefined low uncertainty.Results highlight the importance of taking into account the spread across an ensemble of climate simulations when making inferences on climate change from the ensemble-mean or ensemble-median. This is specially true for climate projections of extreme indices such CDD and R95T. For PRCTOT, a decrease in annual precipitation over the entire peninsula is projected, specially in the north and northwest where it can decrease down to 400 mm by the middle of the 21st century. This decrease is expected to occur throughout the year except in winter. Annual CDD is projected to increase till the middle of the 21st century overall the peninsula, reaching more than three weeks in the southwest. This increase is projected to occur in summer and spring. For Rx5day, a decrease is projected to occur during spring and autumn in the major part of the peninsula, and during summer in northern Iberia. Finally, R95T is projected to decrease around 20% in northern Iberia in summer, and around 15% in the south-southwest in autumn.     

Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results

Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change.This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation.The annual trends estimated for the 1986–2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal.Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains, in spring, and in Galicia, in autumn. For the CDD index, negative statistically significant trends were seen in Valencia, in the spring, and, in Galicia and Portugal (north and centre), in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index were found: in the east of the IP, in the winter; in the Cantabrian Mountain, in the spring; and, in the south of the IP, in summer. Regarding to the R75p index, negative statistically significant trends were found in Galicia, in winter and positive statistically significant trends in the north of Portugal, in spring and in the Central Mountains Chain and north of Portugal, in autumn. For the R95pTOT index, negative statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cuenca and Sierra Cazorla, in winter and positive statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cebollera, in winter and in Castile-la Mancha region, in spring.The results of the annual and seasonal trends of the extreme precipitation indices performed for observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim, are similar. The results obtained for the simulation forced by MPI-ESM are not satisfactory, and can be a source of criticism for the use of simulation forced by MPI-ESM in this type of climate change studies. Even for the relatively short period used, the WRF model, when properly forced is a useful tool due to the similar results of Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim.     

高液限土路堤填筑的双指标控制方法研究

对于高液限土（包括改良的高液限土）填筑的路堤只用单一的压实度指标控制常常易导致质量隐患。通过试验研究提出一个采用空气率Va和压实度Dc双指标控制高液限土路堤填筑质量的方法,并给出了具体的控制标准。当压实度控制指标Dc≥93%时,高液限黏土和粉土空气率控制标准为4%≤Va≤8%,含砂高液限黏土和粉土空气率控制标准为6%≤Va≤13%。通过系统的试验研究,验证了双指标质量控制的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明,采用空气率和压实度双指标控制,不仅可以保证高液限土填筑路堤的强度和刚度,而且具有较好的水稳定性,为进一步充分利用高液限土作为路堤填料提供了技术支持。     

中国煤中微量元素锡（Sn）的研究进展

锡（Sn）被认为是具有环境负效应的元素。近年来,不同地区的沉积物样品显示近几十年来地壳中的Sn明显快速上升,并认为煤炭的燃烧可能是导致环境中Sn含量增加的重要途径。锡在中国煤中的平均含量约为3.38 μg/g,略高于世界煤中Sn的均值,与上地壳的含量基本持平。由于煤中Sn的含量在10-6量级,因此,在测试过程中可以考虑选择利用ICP MS和高精度AAS结合微波消解技术对Sn进行测定。因为该元素本身在煤中含量微少,几乎不以独立的矿物相存在,因此鲜少有文献报道。但在本文中,还是提出了几种Sn在煤中的可能存在方式：锡石态、硫化物态、钽铌矿物中的类质同象、有机结合态、硅酸盐矿物中的类质同象,以及非紧密结合的可交换离子态。并以中国典型的高Sn煤层为例,分析了高Sn煤出现的可能原因。此外,当煤中Sn的赋存状态为可交换离子态与有机质结合态时,部分Sn可以在煤的开采和燃烧中迁移并进入环境,应当予以关注。