Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.     

国家之间经济发展水平比较与中国的差距

为了促进现代化的实现,作者试图找出中国与发达国家之间的经济差距,并选取了世界银行公布数据的三个指标,代入自己设计的简便公式,测得中国与韩国、希腊的经济差距为26年(以2000年基准)。于是作者将发达国家分为一般发达国家和高度发达国家,把发展中国家分为一般发展中国家和发展中的发达国家。作者预计2020年中国将达到发展中的发达国家水平。并预测中国将在2007年经济总量超英国;中国与英国的人均水平差距约为34年。中国与美国经济总量的差距约为35年,中美之间的人均水平差距约为44年,动态差距将在50年以上。结论,中国在2030年将可达到一般发达国家水平,即可实现现代化。     

Methane Abundance on Titan, Measured by the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph

Although methane is the dominant absorber in Titan's reflection spectrum, the amount of methane in the atmosphere has only been determined to an order of magnitude. We analyzed spectra from the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph, looking at both a bright surface region (700-km radius) and a dark surface region. The difference between the spectra of the two regions is attributed to light that has scattered off the surface, and therefore made a round-trip through all of Titan's methane. Considering only absorption, the shape of the difference spectrum provides an upper limit on methane abundance of 3.5 km-am. Modeling the multiple scattering in the atmosphere further constrains the methane abundance to 2.63±0.17 km-am. In the absence of supersaturation and with a simplified methane vertical profile, this corresponds to a surface methane-mole fraction near 3.8% and a relative humidity of 0.32. With supersaturation near the tropopause, the surface methane mole fraction could be as low as 3%.     

History of Star Formation and Chemical Enrichment in the Milky Way Disk

Based on a physical treatment of the star formation law similar to that given by Efstathiou, we have improved our two-component chemical evolution model for the Milky Way disk. Two gas infall rates are compared, one exponential, one Gaussian. It is shown that the star formation law adopted in this paper depends more strongly on the gas surface density than that in Chang et al. It has large effects on the history of star formation and gas evolution of the whole disk. In the solar neighborhood, the history of chemical evolution and star formation is not sensitive to whether the infall rate is Gaussian or exponential. For the same infall time scale, both forms predict the same behavior for the current properties of the Galactic disk. The model predictions do depend on whether or not the infall time scale varies with the radius, but current available observations cannot decide which case is the more realistic. Our results also show that it would be inadequate to describe the gradient evolution along the Gala     

新疆西准噶尔表壳元素地球化学特征的地质意义

根据西准噶尔地区1∶20万化探均匀采集的780余个岩石样品分析结果,基于全样本统计和迭代剔除方法,得到新疆西准噶尔地区表壳(出露地壳)的36种元素丰度值.同时对其中的SiO2、TiO2、Al2O3、TFe2O3、MgO、MnO、CaO、Na2O、K2O、P2O5 10种常量元素氧化物,按氧化物之和为100%进行了归算.西准噶尔地区表壳在化学成份上相当于花岗闪长岩.与日本岛弧上地壳元素丰度值相比,西准噶尔地区表壳富集TFe2O3、Na2O、TiO2、P2O5和Cu、Sr,而亏损CaO和Co、Cr、Nb、Ni、Pb、Sb、Th等元素.从元素比值来看,西准噶尔地区表壳的K/La、K/Th、Nb/La、Th/La、La/As、La/Sb等比值与日本岛弧上地壳相应元素比值相当;而K/Na比值低于岛弧上地壳,La/Cr比值高于岛弧上地壳.西准噶尔地区表壳在成分特征上与典型的岛弧造山带上地壳相近.加里东期和海西期岛弧造山作用是影响和制约西准噶尔地区表壳元素地球化学特征的重要地质因素.     

A high-resolution reconstruction of Storglaciären mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring data and circulation indices

Storglaciären in northernmost Sweden has the world's longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record, starting in 1946. To extend this mass-balance record, we have reconstructed summer (b_S) and winter (b_W) mass balances separately back to the mass balance year 1780/81 with annual resolution. We used tree-ring data for b_S and a set of circulation indices, based on the sea-level pressure, for b_W. Both proxies have correlation coefficients with respective mass balance components of ca. 0.7. The reconstructed net balance (b_N) of Storglaciären was well correlated to the observations during 1946-1980 (r = 0.8, p < 0.05). Our reconstruction agrees well with previously obtained results of northern Sweden glacier variability, where the predominantly positive b_N years between 1890 and 1910 correspond to the well documented post-Little Ice Age advance of Storglaciären. Furthermore, the results suggest that b_S, as a function of summer temperatures, is more important than b_W in determining the b_N, which is contrary to glaciers in the maritime parts of western Scandinavia. In general, b_N has been negative over the last 220 yr, suggesting a predomination of continental conditions over northern Sweden. However, the influence of b_W increased in the late twentieth century, indicating a shift to a more oceanic climate regime.     

金矿的地质地球化学找矿标志

地层和岩浆岩含金高丰度是金矿赋集的物质来源,断裂构造是容矿、储矿的空间。一般说来,金成矿物质越丰富,就越有利于形成大矿、富矿。以江西金矿找矿为例,阐述正确圈定金异常,合理布置探矿工程,获得找金成果新突破的实际意义。     

A review on reflective remote sensing and data assimilation techniques for enhanced agroecosystem modeling

During the last 50 years, the management of agroecosystems has been undergoing major changes to meet the growing demand for food, timber, fibre and fuel. As a result of this intensified use, the ecological status of many agroecosystems has been severely deteriorated. Modeling the behavior of agroecosystems is, therefore, of great help since it allows the definition of management strategies that maximize (crop) production while minimizing the environmental impacts. Remote sensing can support such modeling by offering information on the spatial and temporal variation of important canopy state variables which would be very difficult to obtain otherwise.In this paper, we present an overview of different methods that can be used to derive biophysical and biochemical canopy state variables from optical remote sensing data in the VNIR-SWIR regions. The overview is based on an extensive literature review where both statistical–empirical and physically based methods are discussed. Subsequently, the prevailing techniques of assimilating remote sensing data into agroecosystem models are outlined. The increasing complexity of data assimilation methods and of models describing agroecosystem functioning has significantly increased computational demands. For this reason, we include a short section on the potential of parallel processing to deal with the complex and computationally intensive algorithms described in the preceding sections.The studied literature reveals that many valuable techniques have been developed both for the retrieval of canopy state variables from reflective remote sensing data as for assimilating the retrieved variables in agroecosystem models. However, for agroecosystem modeling and remote sensing data assimilation to be commonly employed on a global operational basis, emphasis will have to be put on bridging the mismatch between data availability and accuracy on one hand, and model and user requirements on the other. This could be achieved by integrating imagery with different spatial, temporal, spectral, and angular resolutions, and the fusion of optical data with data of different origin, such as LIDAR and radar/microwave.     

长江中下游及邻区基底和花岗岩成矿元素丰度背景的研究

本文系统地研究了长江中下游及邻区的结晶基底,褶皱基底及花岗岩岩基成矿元素丰度背景,从而为区域Ｃｕ、Ａｕ,Ｗ、Ｓｎ等成矿作用提供了一套完整的基础地球化学数据,用此来作为窥视地壳组成及成矿作用时空演变的窗口。