Sea‐level rise impact on fresh groundwater lenses in two‐layer small islands

The fresh groundwater lenses (FGLs) of small islands can be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea‐level rise (SLR). Many real cases of atoll or sandy islands involve two‐layer hydrogeological conceptualizations. In this paper, the influential factors that affect FGLs in two‐layer small islands subject to SLR are investigated. An analytical solution describing FGLs in circular islands, composed of two geological layers, is developed for the simplified case of steady‐state and sharp‐interface conditions. An application of the developed model is demonstrated to estimate the FGL thickness of some real‐world islands by comparison with existing FGL thickness data. Furthermore, numerical modelling is applied to extend the analysis to consider dispersion effects and to confirm comparable results for both cases. Sensitivity analyses are used to assess the importance of land‐surface inundation caused by SLR, relative to other parameters (i.e. thickness of aquifer layers, hydraulic conductivity, recharge rate and land‐surface slope) that influence the FGL. Dimensionless parameters are used to generalize the findings. The results demonstrate that land‐surface inundation has a considerable impact on a FGL influenced by SLR, as expected, although the FGL volume is more sensitive to recharge, aquifer thickness and hydraulic conductivity than SLR impacts, considering typical parameter ranges. The methodology presented in this study provides water resource managers with a rapid‐assessment tool for evaluating the likely impacts of SLR and accompanying LSI on FGLs.     

多维邻近下浙江城市创新网络演化及其机制研究

以浙江90个县级城市（城区）为对象,基于大数据专利文本挖掘析取城市间合作申请专利数,构建创新网络,采用空间网络模型和负二项回归模型分析2007—2017年浙江城市创新网络的网络结构、时空演化及创新合作强度的影响机制。研究发现：① 浙江城市创新网络规模逐渐扩张,“小世界性”显著,通达性较好,整体呈以杭州湾区为核心的“网络局部化、辐射中心化”特征,等级层次性清晰;② 浙江城市创新合作强度与经济规模、教育水平、政策支持、技术势差、城市行政等级、技术邻近性、边界相邻效应显著正相关且受地理距离约束,认知邻近性和制度邻近性与创新合作间分别呈“U”型和倒“U”型曲线关系,网络效应更多在整体网层面上促进了创新合作。在特定省份县级城市层面探讨了如何加强城市创新网络协同效应,以促进地方城市间的创新联系。     

数字经济增长动力与区域收入的空间分布规律

为探究数字经济增长的动力构成、地域差异以及与区域收入之间的空间分布规律,本文以中国数字经济创新高地浙江省为样本,构建了数字经济增长动力要素指标体系,并首先提出了数字经济“增长动力指数”构想。借助Weaver-Thomas模型、灰色关联分析以及GIS分层设色法,从地级市层面对浙江省数字经济增长的主导动力构成进行空间可视化分析,并验证了其与区域收入的关联性。结果表明：① 浙江省数字经济增长动力类型特征呈弱波动状态。② 从整体空间格局来看,数字经济增长呈现以杭州和宁波为核心的“双核心”空间格局现象,产业供给动力主导型主要分布在浙西南地区;市场需求动力主导型、信息应用动力主导型及创新驱动动力主导型主要分布在浙西北地区。③ 数字经济“增长动力指数”与区域收入之间存在较强的关联性,较高的数字经济增长动力指数对应的地区收入也处于较高水平,反之亦然。数字经济主导动力结构的变化正在形成一种复杂多样的区域经济增长行为模式。     

不同人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响:以浙江省为例

应用大气化学模式WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecast-Chemistry),分别选用亚洲排放源清单INTEX-B(Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B)、REASv2.1(Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2.1)以及全球排放源清单HTAP_v2(Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version 2),对浙江省2013年12月进行模拟,分别记为IN、RE和HT试验,研究人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响。结果表明,3组试验合理的反映出PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)和NO_2近地面浓度的时空分布特征,相关系数为0.5~0.8,85%以上的模拟值落在观测值的0.5~2倍范围内,但对SO_2近地面浓度模拟较差。IN、RE、HT试验对PM2.5和PM10的模拟偏差均成递减趋势,约为30%、16%和6%,HT试验的模拟值更加接近观测。INTEX-B清单中PM2.5的一次排放与二次气溶胶前提物SO_2均高于REAS与HTAP清单,因此会导致更多的硫酸盐生成,从而进一步增加PM2.5浓度。HTAP_v2清单中较低的NH3排放会抑制硝酸盐的生成,从而有助于降低PM2.5浓度。3个清单的基准年与模拟年的差异对SO_2浓度模拟的准确性影响更大,INTEX-B清单中SO_2排放量明显高于REASv2.1与HTAP_v2清单,尤其在浙北和沿海工业发达地区,导致IN试验模拟的SO_2在这些地区存在明显高估。3组试验模拟的NO_2浓度偏差最小且更为接近(-8%~4%),主要原因是3个清单在浙江省的NOx排放十分一致。从3组试验结果之间的差异程度来看,浙江省范围内PM2.5、PM10、SO_2和NO_2逐日浓度模拟值之间的平均差异程度分别约为14%、15%、51%和16%,最大差异程度分别为69%、78%、137%和132%。月均浓度与逐日浓度的平均差异程度基本一致,但最大差异程度明显更低。总体来看3组试验模拟的PM2.5、PM10与NO_2的差异程度明显低于SO_2。     

一种浙江省冻雨落区的推算方法

2008年初浙江省出现全省性的大范围强冻雨天气,在输电线路上形成很厚的覆冰,致使浙江电网遭受巨大的损失。然而,浙江省却仅有三分之一的气象站观测到冻雨,持续时间也很短。本文利用全球再分析资料ERA-Interim结合浙江电网覆冰灾情资料,分析了2008和2013年的两次强冻雨过程。研究表明浙江省强冻雨发生时具备冷暖冷的层结结构,且中间暖层气温0℃,但相比湖南省,浙江省的暖层中心气温稍低,下层冷层厚度略厚,暖层中的液态水进人到下层冷层后易被冻结,落到低海拔地面为冰粒,或者低海拔地面层气温高于0℃,冻雨落到地面为降雨,所以冻雨期间浙江省绝大多数气象站(海拔在200 m以下)观测不到雨凇,观测到的多是冰粒或降雨;而在海拔较高的山区,冷层厚度变薄,液态水被冻结的概率大大降低,而且山区地面气温多低于0℃,有利于冻雨落在山区地面形成雨凇,因此浙江省冻雨多出现在浙中海拔400 m以上和浙南海拔600 m以上的山区。根据浙江省冻雨的特点,采用全球再分析资料进行冻雨落区推算,结果与浙江电网实际的覆冰灾情吻合得较好。本研究利用输电线路覆冰厚度确定冻雨强弱和分布,采用再分析资料推算冻雨落区,为地形起伏度较大的省份开展冻雨研究,进行冻雨监测和预报提供一条新的思路。     

《更路簿》及其南沙群岛古地名释义

《更路簿》是一本海南渔民往来南海诸岛礁的航海手册,记录了海南岛渔民命名南海岛礁的地理名称136处,这些南海地名生动地反映了南海岛礁的自然地理及文化特征。该文论述了《更路簿》与《针路簿》的起源与差别,探讨了《更路簿》中的岛礁分类与命名方式,将《更路簿》中的南沙岛礁的名称及其释义集成在一起,并对照谷歌地球进行定位与校核。依据名从主人的地名学规则,海南渔民是最早探索、发现、命名南海岛礁并对其不间断地开发的经营者,因此为南海诸岛是中国的固有领土提供有力佐证。该文从南海的季风洋流对航海的影响分析,探讨了帆船时代居住在季风海流两侧国家的人民探索发现南海诸岛的局限性。     

浙江省城市化与生态环境协调度及其胁迫关系探讨

运用交互胁迫、耦合协调模型,结合主观均方差分析法和客观结构熵值法确定指标权重,通过建立指标体系研究2000-2014年浙江省生态环境和城市化的交互胁迫关系和协调类型.结果表明:浙江省生态环境和城市化之间存在交互胁迫关系,演变状态符合双指数函数;前者对后者有显著的约束作用,后者对前者有显著的胁迫作用.对城市化综合水平影响程度大小依次为经济、社会与人口城市化,对生态环境综合水平影响程度大小依次为生态环境压力、状态与响应.2000-2014年浙江省综合协调耦合类型分为磨合协调阶段(2000-2003年)、基本协调阶段(2003-2005年)、拮抗协调阶段(2005-2010年)和良好协调阶段(2010-2014)4个阶段.     

Conservation of the Important Agricultural Heritage Systems in the Economically Developed Area：Experiences,Problems and Solutions—A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

Zhejiang Province, located in the Yangtze River Delta region, is representative of China's economically developed areas. It enjoys superior natural conditions and a long history of agriculture, and is a comprehensive agricultural area with integrated development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. It has nurtured the farming culture represented by Hemudu culture and Liangzhu culture, which have given rise to numerous precious Agricultural Heritage Systems. At present, Zhejiang Province has three of the world’s Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) and 12 China Nationally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (China-NIAHS), so it not only has the largest number of heritages in China, but it has also attained remarkable achievements in heritage conservation. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example in combination with the rural revitalization strategy, this paper summarizes the achievements in the protection of Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS) in Zhejiang Province during the past 15 years from the aspects of increasing farmers’ income, cultural Inheritance and industrial upgrading, as well as the conservation experiences in government promotion, community initiative, enterprise participation, technology driving and social linkage. Further, in view of the problems that exist in the current heritage protection,such as imperfect management of heritage sites, low participation of community residents, lack of special protection funds, and imperfect provincial management system,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: (1) Improve the management mechanism for the conservation and development of Agricultural Heritage Systems; (2) Develop regional public branding of agricultural products in Agricultural Heritage System sites; (3) Increase the Agricultural Heritage System science education as well as cultural and creative product development; (4) Carry out the evaluation and recognition of IAHS at the provincial level; and (5) Provide substantial support and input to the conservation and utilization of IAHS. This study can provide some guidance for the conservation of IAHS in Zhejiang Province and it provides important reference for IAHS in the economically developed areas in China.     

苏浙皖边界地区苏皖运动的有关问题

苏皖运动的存在于否,对研究苏浙皖边界地区的地质发展史和正确认识长兴阶地层有重要意义。笔者论证了长兴组的厚度变化、界线粘土层的性质与成因、底砾岩的确认和地层接触关系、古生物群的突变等问题,认为:1)区内苏皖运动是存在的;2)砺山-江阴海堤不可否定;将安徽广德牛头山经江苏宜兴至江阴条带内的龙潭组上部地层作为长兴组的相变产物是不妥的。      

东海台风出现次数以及在我省沿海登陆的分析与预测

根据３７年（１９５３～１９８９年）的有关气象资料分析表明,浙北地区当年３月温度,上年４～６月降水量,秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋（指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风）出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系,并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看,效果令人满意。