高空急流入口区次级环流在一次突发性强降水过程中的作用

通过对 1999年秋季一次突发性降水过程高空急流的分析 ,发现急流入口区南侧辐散 ,其低层辐合上升 ,当低层有印缅槽活动的时候 ,对流加强 ,印缅槽发展 ;急流入口区北侧辐合 ,其低层辐散下沉 ,有向南的非地转风     

吐鲁番一场罕见降雪天气个例分析

对“2000·2”罕见降雪天气过程分析表明,低层强烈的辐合上升运动和低空急流的突然增强是产生降雪的关键.     

丘陵山区低空急流特性分析

利用丘陵区边界层实测资料，分析了该地区８－９月份低空急流的特征及其演变规律；并从测站所处的地理环境，山凰 地形的力差异以及适中的风平流作用等，探讨了测站上空逆温的形成及其对低空急流的形成和维持作用，根据地形热力差所导致的气压斜压性，研究了低空急流的生消可能机制。     

台风“榴莲”暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析

分析 2 0 0 1年 7月 2 - 3日台风“榴莲”暴雨过程中湿位涡及其各分量的变化 ,发现对流层低层 85 0 h Pa湿位涡的负值中心、 70 0 h Pa湿位涡的正值区与强降水中心相对应 ;急流与层结稳定度的变化 ,影响着湿位涡的变化     

桩端土加固处理设计及检测方法的探讨

介绍了人工挖孔桩桩端土承载力不足进行旋喷桩处理的设计过程以及处理后检测过程中遇到的问题。桩端土处理设计可以遵循一般的地基处理设计方法和原则,并针对复合地基承载力检测和桩端土极限端阻力的检测中存在的差异和共同点,提出组合静载荷试验的思路和方法,并在工程中予以实施,并取得了较好的效果。     

Western Pacific Jet Stream Anomalies at 200 hPa in Winter Associated with Oceanic Surface Heating and Transient Eddy Activity

The relationships between the 200-hPa westerly jet stream anomalies over the East Asian coastal water- western Pacific(WPJS),and the oceanic surface heating and synoptic-scale transient eddy(STE)activity anomalies over the North Pacific in wintertime are examined by using ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The analysis demonstrates that the surface heating and the STE anomalies have different patterns, corresponding to the three WPJS anomalous modes,respectively.In the first WPJS anomalous mode,the WPJS main part shows no robust anomaly.The anomalous westerly wind,occurring over the mid-latitude central-eastern Pacific past the date line is associated with the anomalous heating presenting both in the tropical central-eastern Pacific past the date line and the center of the North Pacific basin.Meanwhile,the STE anomaly appears around the region of the anomalous zonal wind.The fluctuation in jet strength shown in the second WPJS mode is strongly related to the heating anomaly in the Kuroshio Current region and the STE anomaly in the jet exit region.The third mode demonstrates a northward/southward shift of the WPJS,which has a statistical connection with a south-north dipolar pattern of the heating anomaly in the western North Pacific separated at 35°N.Meanwhile,the STE spatial displacement is in conjunction with jet shifts in the same direction.The heating anomaly has a close connection with the atmospheric circulation, and thus changes the mid-latitude baroclinicity,leading to the STE anomaly,which then reinforces the WPJS anomaly via internal atmospheric dynamics.     

山东半岛南部一次沿海强降雨成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料和雷达探测等资料,对2012年9月21日山东半岛南部沿海强降雨过程的成因进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:1强降雨是在500hPa第1个西风槽过后第2个西风槽逼近的过程中产生的,850hPa以下为偏南的向岸风,且风速随时间增大,形成偏南的超低空急流,持续地向沿海输送水汽和能量,造成水汽辐合、湿度增大、对流有效位能升高。产生强降雨的水汽和不稳定能量条件远小于内陆地区。2在向岸的超低空急流的左侧产生中小尺度的涡旋和辐合上升,海岸地形抬升作用使得上升运动加强,触发对流不稳定能量释放,造成强降水。3在雷达回波中,小尺度的对流单体沿海岸线向西南方向发展,后期在日照附近的沿海形成弓状回波,向东南海区移动。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

Predictability of the summer East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet in ENSEMBLES multi-model forecasts

The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet(EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint,from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation,to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts,initiated from1 May,in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960–2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ,which reflects the models' performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally,the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast,the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis,associated with the meridional displacement,and interannual intensity change of the EAJ,the second leading EOF mode,meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and,subsequently,summer climate in East Asia,using current coupled models.     

一次西南低涡东移引发长江中下游暴雨的诊断研究

利用常规观测资料和NECP再分析资料,对2013年6月6—7日西南低涡东移加强发展造成长江中下游大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,重点探讨了西南低涡东移和发展维持的物理机制以及最强降水的变化特征。结果表明,沿着700 hPa高空切变线东移的西南低涡是造成此次长江中下游地区暴雨的直接影响系统,西南低涡沿着700 hPa切变线东移发展,深厚阶段正涡度柱伸展到400 hPa高度,自下而上呈近垂直结构。西南低涡附近低层辐合与高层辐散的大尺度环境条件、西南低涡与西南低空急流耦合发展动力结构、低空暖平流和高空槽前正涡度平流输送等条件是导致西南低涡东移到长江中下游后加强发展的主要因子。与西南低涡相伴随的强降雨区主要位于低涡南部3个纬距以内,该处的西南季风和副高西南侧东南气流两支水汽输送的汇合为暴雨发生提供了充沛的水汽和对流不稳定能量,而对流层中低层携带的冷空气侵入低层低涡的后部,不仅加强了低涡的斜压性,也促进了上冷下暖不稳定层结的产生和发展,为强降水的发生提供了不稳定对流触发条件。