新疆地震预报研究

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。     

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.     

地震短临综合预报方法的研究

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用     

Scattering of elastic waves by a fracture zone containing randomly distributed cracks

We theoretically study the scattering ofP, SV andSH waves by a zonal distribution of cracks, which simulates a fault fracture zone. An investigation is conducted how the geometrical properties of the crack distribution and the frictional characteristics of the crack surface are reflected in the attenuation and dispersion of incident waves, as well as in the amplitudes of the transmitted and reflected waves from the zone. If the crack distribution within the fault zone changes temporally during the preparation process of the expected earthquake, it will be important for earthquake prediction to monitor it, utilizing the scattering-induced wave phenomena.We consider the two-dimensional problem. Aligned cracks with the same length are assumed to be randomly distributed in a zone with a finite width, on which elastic waves are assumed to be incident. The distribution of cracks is assumed to be homogeneous and sparse. The crack surface is assumed to be stress-free, or to undergo viscous friction; the latter case simulates fluid-filled cracks. The opening displacement of the crack is assumed to be negligibly small. The idea of the mean wave formalism is employed in the analysis, and Foldy's approximation is assumed.When the crack surface is stress-free, it is commonly observed for every wave mode (P, SV andSH) that the attenuation coefficientQ ^–1 peaks aroundka1, the phase velocity is almost independent ofk in the rangeka<1 and it increases monotonically withk in the rangeka>1, wherek is the intrinsicS wavenumber anda is the half length of the crack. The effect of the friction is to shift the peak ofQ ^–1 and the corner of the phase velocity curve to the low wavenumber range. The high wavenumber asymptote ofQ ^–1 is proportional tok ^–1 independently of model parameters and the wave modes. If the seismological observation thatQ ^–1 ofS waves has a peak at around 0.5 Hz in the earth's crust is combined with our results, the upper limit of crack size within the crust is estimated about 4 km. The information regarding the transmitted and reflected waves, such as the high wavenumber limit of the amplitude of the transmitted wave etc., allows estimation of the strength of the friction.     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

“煤特征指数”与矿井瓦斯危险类型的关系

矿井瓦斯危险程度与煤层中瓦斯赋存状况及其泄出方式有关,并取决于多种地质条件和采掘工艺。其中,煤特征条件特别重要。本文分析了湖南省的5种矿井瓦斯危险类型以及相应的煤特征条件,提出了“煤特征指数(I_c)”这一概念。I_c是一项评价矿井瓦斯危险程度的综合指标。研究表明,矿井瓦斯危险愈严重,则其I_c值愈高。应用该项成果预测了16对矿井的瓦斯危险类型,取得了满意的效果。     

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.     

Transmission and reflection of Rayleigh waves at a thin low velocity vertical layer: A laboratory and theoretical study

A three-dimensional ultrasonic modelling was used to study the Rayleigh waves reflected from a thin low velocity vertical layer and those transmitted through the same zone. The reflection and transmission coefficients of the Rayleigh waves have been calculated by an approximate method based on the Green function technique. Nonrigid contact boundary conditions were used for the low velocity layer modelling. A rather good correspondence between the theoretical and experimental absolute values of the reflection and the transmission coefficients was obtained. Some discrepancies between experimental and theoretical results, in particular with regard to phase shifts, may be explained by a certain inadequacy of the theoretical model to the low velocity layer investigated by the ultrasonic modelling.     

FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用

本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.     

弹性波的三维有限元模拟

本文讨论了弹性波瞬态传播问题的三维有限元计算方法及当前存在的实际困难.针对要求计算机内存大和计算时间长的问题,采取了改进措施.由于采用了集中质量矩阵和修正的中心差分时间积分显格式相结合的方法,可以使计算机内存和计算时间大为减少;由于采用结点定位法,最适合用于目前发展的并行计算机系统,可使计算速度大大增快;还采用了有效激发震源法,有效激发区是随时间步进的增加而逐步增大,这不仅能节省计算时间,而且使波场的传播过程一目了然,本文计算了由两种介质组成的三维楔形问题,得到若干典型剖面的瞬时波场图及随时间变化的合成地震图.