长江口附近海域台风浪的数值模拟--以鹿沙台风和森拉克台风为例

利用SWAN波浪模型计算长江口附近海域的台风浪,鉴于长江河口岸界和地形复杂,拟采用曲线网格.为证实曲线网格下的SWAN模型对于复杂地形的有效性,首先选用美国特拉华大学波浪水池实验资料对SWAN模型进行检验,结果表明利用曲线网格能不过多增加计算量而提高关键区域的计算精度.以0215号鹿沙台风和0216号森拉克台风为例,将SWAN模型应用到长江口附近海域,进行台风浪的数值模拟.通过浮标测站实测资料验证,表明有效波高计算值与实测值符合良好.通过综合分析模型计算的波浪场,说明SWAN模型能合理地反映长江口附近海域台风浪的分布.     

Non-linear fluid dynamics of eccentric discs

A new theory of eccentric accretion discs is presented. Starting from the basic fluid-dynamical equations in three dimensions, I derive the fundamental set of one-dimensional equations that describe how the mass, angular momentum and eccentricity vector of a thin disc evolve as a result of internal stresses and external forcing. The analysis is asymptotically exact in the limit of a thin disc, and allows for slowly varying eccentricities of arbitrary magnitude. The theory is worked out in detail for a Maxwellian viscoelastic model of the turbulent stress in an accretion disc. This generalizes the conventional alpha viscosity model to account for the non-zero relaxation time of the turbulence, and is physically motivated by a consideration of the nature of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. It is confirmed that circular discs are typically viscously unstable to eccentric perturbations, as found by Lyubarskij, Postnov & Prokhorov, if the conventional alpha viscosity model is adopted. However, the instability can usually be suppressed by introducing a sufficient relaxation time and/or bulk viscosity. It is then shown that an initially uniformly eccentric disc does not retain its eccentricity as had been suggested by previous analyses. The evolutionary equations should be useful in many applications, including understanding the origin of planetary eccentricities and testing theories of quasi-periodic oscillations in X-ray binaries.     

共转换点道集的抽取与转换波时变静校正

纵横波速度比固定时,同一地震道中各时间采样点对应不同的转换点位置,因此,常规的整体抽道方法只能抽取特定深度或特定层位条件下的共转换点道集,它不能保证所有P-SV转换波的反射点位置都在同一水平位置处。提出了一种精确抽取共转换点道集的新方法,运用这种方法抽取的共转换点道集中所有数据对应的转换点在地面的投影都对应于同一位置,因此,该道集是一种真正意义上的共转换点道集,在此基础上提出了一种解决短波长问题的转换波时变静校正方法,实际资料处理取得了好的效果。     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

四川省茂县风能资源初步分析

采用1971~2000年气候整编资料数据,初步分析了茂县的风能资源状况。结果表明:(1)由于特定的地理地形条件所致,其风能资源在四川为最大值地区之一,在横断山地区也为最大值地区之一。虽然年平均风能密度仅为27.44 W/m²(县气象局观测资料计算)。但当地风具有一年四季风速较大、风向稳定、定时起风等特点,其风能应具有较大的开发利用价值。(2)茂县的风有如下特点:一年四季都有风,冬春季最大(12月~次年5月平均风速达4.1m/s),秋季次之(10~11月平均风速达3.6m/s),夏季最小(6~9月平均风速达3.4m/s),以3月最大,平均风速达4.6m/s,以9月最小,平均风速只有3.2m/s。据茂县局3次观测的2分钟的平均风速来看,早上多为静风,在这种情况下多年平均风速仍然达到了3.8m/s,为全省最大。(3)根据茂县本站的风观测资料计算该县属于风能资源较贫乏地区,但该县由于地形复杂,县气象局观测资料不能完全代表该县的特殊风能分布情况,需要在实地调查的基础上,选择风速较大的地区建立风能观测点积累风能实测资料,为该县开发风能资源造福当地人民提供更科学、更具有说服力的数据。     

Nonstationary pearl pulsations as a signature of magnetospheric disturbances

We analyse long-lasting (several hours) Pc1 pearl pulsations with decreasing, increasing or constant central frequencies. We show that nonstationary pearl events (those with either decreasing or increasing central frequency) are observed simultaneously with increasing auroral magnetic activity at the nightside magnetosphere while the stationary events (constant central frequency) correspond to quiet magnetic conditions. Events with decreasing central frequency are observed mostly in the late morning and daytime whereas events with increasing central frequency appear either early in the morning or in the afternoon. We explain the diurnal distribution of the nonstationary pearl pulsations in terms of proton drifts depending on magnetic activity, and evaluate the magnetospheric electric field based on the variation of the central frequency of pearl pulsations.     

On the formation of cluster radio relics

In several merging clusters of galaxies so-called cluster radio relics have been observed. These are extended radio sources which do not seem to be associated with any radio galaxies. Two competing physical mechanisms to accelerate the radio-emitting electrons have been proposed: (i) diffusive shock acceleration and (ii) adiabatic compression of fossil radio plasma by merger shock waves. Here the second scenario is investigated. We present detailed three-dimensional magneto-hydrodynamical simulations of the passage of a radio plasma cocoon filled with turbulent magnetic fields through a shock wave. Taking into account synchrotron, inverse Compton and adiabatic energy losses and gains, we evolved the relativistic electron population to produce synthetic polarization radio maps. On contact with the shock wave the radio cocoons are first compressed and finally torn into filamentary structures, as is observed in several cluster radio relics. In the synthetic radio maps the electric polarization vectors are mostly perpendicular to the filamentary radio structures. If the magnetic field inside the cocoon is not too strong, the initially spherical radio cocoon is transformed into a torus after the passage of the shock wave. Very recent, high-resolution radio maps of cluster radio relics seem to exhibit such toroidal geometries in some cases. This supports the hypothesis that cluster radio relics are fossil radio cocoons that have been revived by a shock wave. For a late-stage relic the ratio of its global diameter to the filament diameter should correlate with the shock strength. Finally, we argue that the total radio polarization of a radio relic should be well correlated with the three-dimensional orientation of the shock wave that produced the relic.     

Equations for transfer of radiation in plasma at decay interactions with ionacoustic waves

Equations for spectral energy densities of waves are obtained describing transfer of high frequency radiation through plasma without magnetic field at the decay of electromagnetic waves into electromagnetic and ionacoustic ones, as well as the decay of Langmuir waves into Langmuir and ionacoustic ones in case of isotropic distributions of all the above waves.