The relationship of Irgarol and its major metabolite to resident phytoplankton communities in a Maryland marina, river and reference area

The objectives of this study were to: (1) measure water column concentrations of Irgarol 1051 and its major metabolite GS26575 annually (2004-2006) during mid-June and mid-August at 14 sites in a study area comprised of three sub-regions chosen to reflect a gradient in Irgarol exposure (Port Annapolis marina, Severn River and Severn River reference area); (2) use a probabilistic approach to determine ecological risk of Irgarol and its major metabolite in the study area by comparing the distribution of exposure data with toxicity-effects endpoints; and (3) measure both functional and structural resident phytoplankton parameters concurrently with Irgarol and metabolite concentrations to assess relationships and determine ecological risk at six selected sites in the three study areas described above. The three-year summer mean Irgarol concentrations by site clearly showed a gradient in concentrations with greater values in Back Creek (400-500 ng/L range), lower values in the Severn River sites near the confluence with Back Creek (generally values less than 100 ng/L) and still lower values (<10 ng/L) at the Severn River reference sites at the confluence with Chesapeake Bay. A similar spatial trend, but with much lower concentrations, was also reported for GS26575. The probability of exceeding the Irgarol plant 10th centile of 193 ng/L and the microcosm NOEC (323 ng/L) suggested high ecological risk from Irgarol exposure at Port Annapolis marina sites but much lower risk at the other sites. There were no statistically significant differences among the three site types (marina, river and reference) with all years combined or among years within a site type for the following functional and structural phytoplankton endpoints: algal biomass, gross photosynthesis, biomass normalized photosynthesis, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll a normalized photosynthesis and taxa richness. Therefore, based on the above results, Irgarol adverse effects predicted from the plant 10th centile and the microcosm NOEC in the high Irgarol exposure area (Back Creek/Port Annapolis marina) were not confirmed with the actual field data for the receptor species (phytoplankton). These results also highlight the importance of unconfined field studies with a chemical gradient in providing valuable information regarding the responses of resident phytoplankton to herbicides.     

Wind-driven diversion of summer river runoff preconditions the Laptev Sea coastal polynya hydrography: Evidence from summer-to-winter hydrographic records of 2007–2009

This paper examines the role of atmospheric forcing in modifying the pathways of riverine water on the Laptev Sea shelf, using summer-to-winter hydrographic surveys from 2007 to 2009. Over the two consecutive winter seasons of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009 in the area of the winter coastal polynya, our data clearly link winter surface salinity fields to the previous summer conditions, with substantially different winter salinity patterns preconditioned by summer atmospheric forcing. In the summer of 2007, dominant along-shore westerly winds in the cyclonic regime force the Lena River runoff to flow eastward. In contrast, in the summer of 2008, dominant along-shore easterly winds over the East Siberian Sea and on-shore northerly winds over the Laptev Sea in the anticyclonic regime lock the riverine water in the vicinity of the Lena Delta. Over the coastal polynya area in the southeastern Laptev Sea these patterns precondition a surface salinity difference of 8–16 psu between the winters of 2008 and 2009. Overall, this indicates a residence time of at least half a year for riverine water on the Laptev Sea shelf. Future climate change associated with an enhanced summer cyclonicity over the eastern Arctic may turn more riverine water eastward along the eastern Siberian coast, resulting in weaker vertical density stratification over the Laptev Sea shelf, with possible impact on the efficiency of vertical mixing and polynya dense water production.     

地震前兆复杂性成因机理研究的讨论（一）：地震前兆复杂性的表现形式

通过国内外成功与失败的震例分析,介绍了地震前兆共性的一面,如在台网具有一定监测能力的地区,如果发生６级以上地震,震前总能或多或少地观测到异常现象。地震越大震前异常越多,分布越广,持续时间越长,异常幅度也较大,同时章着重对前兆复杂性的表现形式进行了较系统的归纳,整理,主要从以下几方面进行了分析,异常与地震关系的不确定性,主要表现在除了“有异常有地震”和“无异常无地震”的理论情况外,还存在“有异常无     

Ekman drift and vortical structures

In this article, the authors study the influence of a constant wind on the displacement of a vortex. The well known Ekman current develops in the surface layer and is responsible for a transport perpendicular to the wind: the Ekman drift.An additional process is, however, evidenced, whose importance is as strong as the Ekman drift. There indeed exists a curl of the wind-driven acceleration along isopycnic surfaces when they are spatially variable (they enter and leave the depth where the wind stress acts), which generates potential vorticity anomalies. This diabatic effect is shown to generate potential vorticity anomalies which acts on the propagation of vortical waves and non linear vortices.It is shown that this effect drastically reduces the effect of the Ekman drift for linear waves and surface intensified vortices, while extending its effect to subsurface vortices. It also generates along wind propagation, whose sign depends on the vortex characteristics.     

双雷达风场反演拼图在登陆台风“莫兰蒂”(1614)强降水精细预报中的同化应用试验

利用福建龙岩、漳州、泉州新一代多普勒天气雷达和厦门海沧双偏振雷达探测资料,采用动态地球坐标系下双雷达三维风场反演与拼图技术,基于天气研究和预报模式（Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF）及其资料同化系统,对登陆台风“莫兰蒂”（1614）引起的2016年9月14—15日福建强降水过程进行了双雷达风场反演拼图资料检验及其三维变分同化对强降水精细预报影响的数值试验,结果发现:（1）动态地球坐标系下双雷达反演风场能合理反映实际风场分布状况,其误差相对较小。相较厦门翔安风廓线雷达及厦门探空秒级测风数据,反演风风向（风速）平均绝对误差分别为7.8°（2.6 m/s）及3.4°（1.1 m/s）;（2）反演风场水平方向稀疏化对同化及预报结果极为重要,过密的反演风场资料会给同化及预报结果带来负效果。文中采用18、6、2 km 3重嵌套,在3重嵌套区域均进行同化以及仅在2 km区域进行同化两种情况下,均表现为当反演风场资料水平分辨率提高到0.1°时,同化分析及预报的台风环流开始受到负影响;且当反演风场资料水平分辨率越高时,负效果越明显。敏感性试验结果显示,分辨率取0.2°时数值预报效果最好;（3）以美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System,NCEP/GFS）0.5°×0.5°分析场为初值,基于3个不同起报时刻（2016年9月14日14时、20时及15日02时）（北京时,下同）模拟的福建省境内台风内核雨带和螺旋雨带逐时演变、台风路径与强度、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关差异显著,其中14日14时起报试验效果最好;而14日20时起报试验效果最差,这与该试验初始台风大风轴风速明显偏大有关;（4）在上述3个不同起报时刻试验基础上,分别增加双雷达反演风场资料的三维变分同化后,福建境内地面风场和台风内核雨带、螺旋雨带逐时分布、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关、台风环流结构以及U、V风垂直廓线分布均有明显改善,最大正影响时效可达24 h;但仅对1—6 h时效内台风路径有改善。      

ERS-2 SAR反演海洋风矢量的研究

SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar)反演海洋风矢量是当今微波遥感领域非常有意义的前沿课题. 本文首先介绍了星载SAR估算海面风向、风速的基本原理和三种主流反演算法,接着给出反演的流程图以及重要步骤. 然后,以2002年5月7日香港地区ERS-2 SAR海洋图像为例,对经典的SWDA (SAR Wind Direction Algorithm)－谱分析方法加以改进,求得具有180°模糊度的风向,并用香港天文台气象浮标实测数据消除了风向不确定性. 最后,利用CMOD4 GMF（Geophysical Model Function,地球物理模式函数）计算得到海面上10m高的风速. 与气象浮标站实测资料相比,利用ERS-2 SAR图像获取的海面风向、风速的精度均较高. 这一结果表明：如果对SAR预先进行ADC(Analog to Digital Converter)改正以及精确校准,结合改进的SWDA和CMOD4,可以获得高精度的风矢量.     

地磁场长期变化的自洽正态统计模型

从地磁场时间变化尺度可分的理论考虑和观测事实出发,建立地磁场Reynolds分解,强调地磁场时均部分和长期变化部分均包含所有的多极子分量;重新解释Constabe和Paker关于规一化Gduss系数的统计结果,从而将地磁场长期变化自洽正态模型自洽化．在这一结构最简单的统计模型中,地磁角度要素和总强度的统计分布均为非正态．地磁场方向及其等价表示虚偶极磁矩方向服从广义Fisher分布,可以解释地磁场方向和虚磁偶极矩方向的椭圆分布长轴大致正交的观测事实．模型的VGP角散布不能解释古地磁观测,意味着时均场中显著存在非轴向偶极子分量．解析结果加强了Egbert关于VGP路径优势经度为不均匀采样所致的推论．     

南黄海辐射沙脊群西洋潮流通道的浅部沉积层序及其形成演化再认识

晚第四纪以来,黄河、长江都曾经江苏中部海岸注入南黄海,河海交互作用形成一系列沉积,全新世海侵后发育岸外辐射沙脊群。沙脊群西北部、由岸滩与沙脊所夹持的西洋潮流通道,位于北侧废黄河三角洲和南侧长江三角洲两大地貌单元间的过渡区,成为揭示不同大河交互作用下的海岸、陆架晚第四纪沉积层序模式的重要窗口。最近通过更多晚第四纪钻孔对比和浅层地震剖面集成研究发现：① 由于混乱的测年结果和陆相硬黏土层对比不当,造成之前基于07SR01孔和Y1孔构建的辐射沙脊群西洋潮流通道浅部沉积（标高−60 m以内）的年代框架有误,其主体应是晚更新世沉积且发育两个沉积旋回,末次冰盛期硬黏土层多被潮流侵蚀而缺失,表层全新世沉积厚度在水下沙脊处基本不足10 m,其余普遍不足5 m,甚至缺失;② 仅在西洋西北段稳定分布的浅层地震单元U3指示了MIS 3古黄河三角洲的南缘,自晚更新世以来西洋所在的江苏中部海岸可能深受古黄河物源的影响,这尚需在西洋西北段的关键位置钻取新孔,并结合已有浅层地震剖面和东南段钻孔来进一步研究证实。提出下一步工作将基于层序地层学方法,通过对已有控制性浅层地震剖面进行地震层序格架的三维可视化、提取地震单元和反射界面的空间分布特征,结合已有及新增控制性钻孔的沉积学和年代学研究,构建可靠年代框架、判识大河物源,并参考邻区钻孔资料,来探明西洋潮流通道的浅部沉积层序,反演其形成演化。     

用变分法修正黑河试验数据的初步研究

为了对黑河试验观测资料进行订正,利用一个一维边界层垂直扩散模式和以拟牛顿极小化算法为基础的最优化方法建立了一个变分同化系统,其中,目标函数相对于控制变量的梯度用扰动法求取.并利用模式资料和黑河试验若干时刻的观测资料进行了一些数值试验.试验证明,将初始场变量与模式误差系数同时作为控制变量加以调整,能够有效调整初始场观测资料.并且,用变分同化方法能够较线性插值(时间、空间)方法更有效、合理的修正黑河试验观测资料场的种种缺陷.