西太平洋暖池热含量变化与东亚冬季风关系

利用 1955-2003 年 NCEP\NCAR 再分析资料和美国 Scripps 海洋研究所环境数据分析中心 ( JEDAC ) 提供的冬季热含量资料,采用小波分析、相关及合成分析等方法, 分析了西太平洋暖池热含量变化特征及其与东亚冬季风关系.结果表明,西太平洋暖池热含量与东亚冬季风有着非常密切的联系,当西太平洋暖池热含量异常偏高时,对流层低层在菲律宾及以东洋面形成一个异常的气旋性环流,中国大陆上空形成一个异常的反气旋性环流,从而使得东亚冬季风在东南区加强,西北区减弱.     

影响山东热带气旋活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系

利用1949～2003年热带气旋年鉴资料,对55年来影响山东热带气旋(TC)活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系进行了分析.结果表明:(1)在厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC频数较常年明显偏少.厄尔尼诺次年TC频数较常年稍有增加;拉尼娜年影响山东的TC频数较常年显著偏多,增加明显的月份主要是8月和9月,拉尼娜次年,影响山东TC频数偏少.厄尔尼诺事件强度越大,影响山东的TC频数越少;(2)影响山东的TC数和菲律宾以东洋面的海温呈正相关,并具有很好的持续性.影响山东的TC多年,赤道中东太平洋有较强的负距平区,影响山东的TC少年,赤道中东太平洋为正距平区;(3)厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC强度偏强.拉尼娜年,影响山东的TC强度明显偏弱.影响山东的TC强度厄尔尼诺年要比拉尼娜年强很多;(4)影响山东TC偏强年在赤道中东太平洋有较强的正距平区,影响山东TC偏弱年在赤道中东太平洋地区有较强的负距平.综上说明赤道中东太平洋的海温高低对影响山东的TC频数和强度有较好的指示作用.     

上海海洋邮轮旅游的发展策略研究

海洋邮轮旅游产业在现代旅游业的发展中有极大的潜力。近些年来,邮轮旅游产业被誉为"漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业"。随着中国经济的发展,我国邮轮旅游业迅速兴起,使多级邮轮市场开始向中国倾斜,成为带动中国经济发展的新动力。文章首先对比了邮轮旅游业国内外的研究现状和理论分析方法,并介绍了上海海洋邮轮旅游业目前的发展现状;其次用"SWOT"分析法的角度讨论了上海邮轮旅游业面临的机会和威胁;最后针对上海海洋邮轮旅游产业,分别从改善环境、扩大宣传、丰富航线和完善港口设施等方面提出了邮轮旅游业的长期发展方向。     

Coral assemblages and reef growth in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (Western Pacific Ocean)

Reef development varies considerably around the high, raised‐limestone islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Here we examine the modern assemblages at 30 sites for coral composition, colony density, colony size, and fidelity. We defined four reef types and hypothesize the presence of environmentally driven ecological stasis, whereby the environment continuously selects for coral species membership, defines colony sizes, and over time creates the noted reef types. Our results show that constructional spur‐and‐groove reefs supported significantly larger coral‐colony sizes and higher coral species richness compared with high‐relief interstitial framework, low‐relief incipient, and non‐constructional coral assemblages. Non‐constructional reefs supported much smaller coral colony sizes, despite similar population densities, and were consistently found in association with high wave exposure. The distinct coral assemblages found on interstitial framework and low‐relief incipient reefs were not affiliated with any wave exposure regime, but were located adjacent to large watersheds and on islands with unique geological history. These assemblages were nested within the spur‐and‐groove species pool. Overall, modern coral cover was well predicted by bathymetric slope and watershed size, while species richness was additively influenced by two proxies of pollution, suggesting the latter is better suited for establishing management targets. In contrast with previous studies that suggested modern assemblages were biologically controlled in the CNMI, we show reef assemblages and reef development are highly influenced by long‐term environmental forcing.     

基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

5月南极涛动对青藏高原西部夏季气温影响的诊断分析

青藏高原是全球气候变暖最敏感的地区之一,是北半球夏季最大的热源,其气候响应受到广泛关注。然而,有关南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系和机理知之甚少。为了研究南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系,基于1979—2020年英国东安哥拉大学气候研究中心（CRU）的逐月气温、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的逐月海表面温度和大气环流再分析数据以及南极涛动指数等数据,采用相关、回归、合成分析等方法进行研究。结果表明,北半球夏季青藏高原西部气温与5月南极涛动存在显著负相关,即当5月南极涛动异常偏弱时,夏季青藏高原西部气温异常偏高。其影响过程为,南极涛动为正位相时,在南印度洋中高纬地区出现“负-正-负”的经向“三极子”海温模态,该模态可持续到夏季,在印度洋形成异常的纬向-垂直环流,相应在热带西印度洋和东印度洋-海洋性大陆之间的降水异常导致热带正“偶极子”降水模态,通过该降水模态在青藏高原西部引起异常反气旋环流和下沉运动,有利于高原西部气温偏高。研究结果显示,海洋的热惯性在“延长”南极涛动影响过程中起着重要的桥梁作用,可为青藏高原夏季气温预测提供科学依据。     

中原城市群公路网络建设与城市化水平相关性研究

分析了中原城市群地区1994～2004年公路交通网络和城市化的发展及现状,寻求区域内公路网络发展和城市化水平相关性,得出二者无论是在时间序列还是在空间系列上都具有显著的线性相关性.证明陈彦光提出的线性相关模型不仅可应用于铁路交通网络分析,而且还能适用于公路交通网络分析.在市场经济条件下,交通网络与城市化是同步发展、相互促进的,且相关性更强.     

湘鄂西奥陶纪宝塔组灰岩网纹构造成因及沉积环境探讨

网纹构造是宝塔组石灰岩地层中非常发育且分布广泛的一种构造形态 ,其成因一直存在争论和疑问。对湘鄂西地区宝塔组灰岩的研究表明 ,网纹构造的形成不是由于胶体凝缩、水下沉积物收缩或生物遗迹等原因 ,而是一种成岩早期形成的准同生变形构造。根据岩石性质及生物特征推断 ,宝塔组网纹状灰岩沉积于正常浪基面以下、风暴浪基面之上 (水深大约 5 0～ 15 0 m)的陆棚或台盆环境     

中亚独联体五国铀成矿的大地构造背景

中亚独联体五国 :哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯坦、土库曼斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的中亚大陆地壳构造单元 ,其中分布着大批砂岩型铀矿床和碱交代岩型、含铀煤岩型、含鱼残骸泥岩型和碳酸盐岩型铀矿床 ,计百余个。这些矿床的铀储量约占全球总工业铀储量的30 %。文中划分出8个铀矿域 ,编制了各铀矿域的成矿大地构造剖面 ,并进行了对比研究 ;对上述五种主要铀矿床类型的成矿学特征作了概述 ;归纳出四种铀成矿大地构造模式 ,指出除地台型模式外 ,其余的地槽 +地洼型、地台 +地洼型、地洼型等三种模式均与地洼阶段的构造—岩浆活化作用密切相关 ,甚至是形成工业铀矿床最至关重要的背景因素。文中最后还对中亚型和华夏型地洼铀成矿学的异同特点 ,作了对比分析。     

Late quaternary glacial stades in the Cordillera Central,Colombia, based on glacial geomorphology,tephra–soil stratigraphy,palynology, and radiocarbon dating

Using data from glacial geomorphology, tephra–soil stratigraphy and mineralogy, palynology, and radiocarbon dating, a sequence of glacial and bioclimatic stades and interstades has been identified for the last ca. 50000 yr in the Ruiz-Tolima massif, Cordillera Central, Colombia. Six Pleistocene cold stades separated by warmer interstades occurred: before 48000, between 48000 and 33000, between 28000 and 21000, from ≥16000 to ca. 14000, ca. 13000–12400, and ca. 11000–10000 yr BP. Although these radiocarbon ages are minimum-limiting ages obtained from tephra layers on top of tills, the tills are not significantly older because most are bracketed by dated tephra sets in measured stratigraphic sections. Two minor moraine stages likely reflect glacier standstill during cold intervals ca. 7400 yr BP and slightly earlier. Finally, glaciers readvanced between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. In contrast to the ice-clad volcanoes of the massif, ca. 34 km² in area above an altitude of ca. 4800 m, the ice cover expanded to 1200 km² during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and was still 800 km² during Late-glacial time (LGT). Glacier reconstructions based on the moraines suggest depression of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) by ca. 1100 m during the LGM and 500–600 m during LGT relative to the modern ELA, which lies at ca. 5100 m in the Cordillera Central. Glaciers in this region apparently reached their greatest extent when the climate was cold and wet, e.g. during stades corresponding to Oxygen Isotope Stage 3; glaciers were still expanding during the LGM ca. 28000–21000 yr BP, but they shrank considerably after 21000 yr BP because of greatly reduced precipitation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.