风暴潮灾与月相

本文以实测资料为依据,统计分析了风暴潮灾、风暴潮、登陆台风、天文高潮等与月相的关系。统计资料表明,登陆台风和台风风暴潮发生在大(小)潮期的次数相对较多,略大于平均数,但它们与月相没有明显的因果关系,它们相对于月相的分布大致上是随机的,如果台风在天文大潮期间登陆,台风引起的暴潮与天文潮叠加后成灾的概率明显增大,但也不一定成灾;成了灾的,往往是风暴潮峰值适逢当日的天文高潮所致。     

青岛地区的台风暴潮与潮灾

本文分析了青岛沿海地区的台风暴潮灾害状况，给出了潮位与海浪的联合作用对灾的影响关系式，提出了今后风暴潮预报的思路。     

Biochemical Mechanism of the Eutrophication and Its Prevention—the Deep Treatment of Waste Water and Its Denitrification and Dephosphorization

Biochemical mechanism of forming the red tide is discussed in this paper.The existence of a large number of nitrates and phosphates in the eutrophic water is the prerequisite of explosive increase of algae and the forming of red tide.Reduction of eutrophication is an important approach to preventing the red tide.The method of deep treatment of the waste water and its denitrification and dephosphorization are introduced,and a new opinion on the red tide formation and fundamental prevention is put forward.     

Third order contribution to the wave-making resistance of a ship at finite depth of water

This paper presents a potential based boundary element method for solving a nonlinear free surface flow problem for a ship moving with a uniform speed in finite depth of water. The free surface boundary condition is linearized by the systematic method of perturbation in terms of a small parameter up to third order. The surfaces are discretized into flat quadrilateral elements and the influence coefficients are calculated by Morino's analytical formula. Dawson's upstream finite difference operator is used in order to satisfy the radiation condition. The second order solution gives better result than the first or third order solution. So the present method with the second order solution can be adopted as a powerful tool for the hydrodynamic analysis of the thin ship in finite depth of water.     

南海东北部台风潮的数值后报及极值增水估计

本研究对近40年来影响南海东北部陆架海区的28次台风引起的风暴潮进行了数值后报,其中8个过程的沿岸后报增水值与实测值进行了比较,表明后报值与实测值符合良好,90%以上的最大增水值偏差在30厘米以下。为了得出本海区多年一遇的台风增水极值,在后报台风路径密集处选择了9个不同水深点,对每点取出各次台风下的最大增水值,然后用Weibull分布进行拟合,得出了各点的极值分布。     

Wave group statistics from numerical simulations of a random sea

Two commonly used methods of simulating random time series, given a target power spectrum, are discussed. Wave group statistics, such as the mean length of runs of high waves, produced by the different simulation schemes are compared. The target spectra used are obtained from ocean measurements, and cover a wide range of ocean conditions. For a sufficiently large number of spectral components, no significant differences are found in the wave group statistics produced by the two simulation techniques.     

杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.     

地形变化对青岛地区风暴潮灾影响的一次模拟

本文以8509台风为例，模拟了因地形变化而对青岛地区风暴潮灾的影响。结果显示，如果胶州湾口外局部地形变深，在8509台风的情况下，风暴增水会造成一定程度的增加，而且对底层风暴潮流会造成更大的影响。     

Ocean tide loading (OTL) displacements from global and local grids: comparisons to GPS estimates over the shelf of Brittany, France

In this paper we examine OTL displacements detected by GPS stations of a dedicated campaign and validate ocean tide models. Our area of study is the continental shelf of Brittany and Cotentin in France. Brittany is one of the few places in the world where tides provoke loading displacements of ∼10–12 cm vertically and a few cm horizontally. Ocean tide models suffer from important discrepancies in this region. Seven global and regional ocean tide models were tested: FES2004 corrected for K2, TPXO.7.0, TPXO.6.2, GOT00.2, CSR4.0, NAO.99b and the most recent regional grids of the North East Atlantic (NEA2004). These gridded amplitudes and phases of ocean tides were convolved in order to get the predicted OTL displacements using two different algorithms. Data over a period of 3.5 months of 8 GPS campaign stations located on the north coast of Brittany are used, in order to evaluate the geographical distribution of the OTL effect. We have modified and implemented new algorithms in our GPS software, GINS 7.1. GPS OTL constituents are estimated based on 1-day batch solutions. We compare the observed GPS OTL constituents of M₂, S₂, N₂ and K₁ waves with the selected ocean tide models on global and regional grids. Large phase-lag and amplitude discrepancies over 20° and 1.5 cm in the vertical direction in the semi-diurnal band of M₂ between predictions and GPS/models are detected in the Bay of Mont St-Michel. From a least squares spectral analysis of the GPS time-series, significant harmonic peaks in the integer multiples of the orbital periods of the GPS satellites are observed, indicating the existence of multipath effects in the GPS OTL constituents. The GPS OTL observations agree best with FES2004, NEA2004, GOT00.2 and CSR4.0 tide models.     

用褶积滤波处理井水位对固体潮响应的滞后

本文给出了一种用褶积滤波处理井水位对固体潮响应滞后的新方法。鲁07井水位观测资料用这种方法处理比一般回归方法的平均中误差少4.6mm。文中讨论了褶积滤波积分区间长度与水井含水层渗透系数的关系及褶积滤波比别尔采夫滤波的优越性。