Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions

One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated.     

Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) between 1956 and 1997 / Estimation par photogrammétrie de la récession glaciaire sur le Volcan Cotopaxi (Equateur) entre 1956 et 1997

Abstract

Aerial photographs of the Cotopaxi Volcano ice cap dating from 1956 to 1997 were used to quantify the evolution of the surface area. Results were obtained using precise stereoscopic methods that give the most accurate information. In addition four specific glacier tongues were investigated in detail to measure the ice mass lost between 1976 and 1997. Surprisingly, the bedrock morphology is shown to be very irregular and this explains a large extent of the variability found in the ice losses. The results show that glaciers stagnated from 1956 to 1976 and lost about 30% of their surface area between 1976 and 1997. Slope exposure did not seem to have any significant effect since all the glaciers of the volcano retreated in the same proportion. In accordance with specific measurements performed on the nearby Antizana 15 Glacier, it is suggested that the strong recession observed after 1976 was associated with increasing melting conditions which have occurred repeatedly during the intense/long-duration warm ENSO phases.     

Emplacement of xenolith nodules in the Kaupulehu lava flow,Hualalai Volcano,Hawaii

The basaltic Kaupulehu 1800–1801 lava flow of Hualalai Volcano, Hawaii contains abundant ultramafix xenoliths. Many of these xenoliths occur as bedded layers of semi-rounded nodules, each thinly coated with a veneer (typically 1 mm thick) of lava. The nodule beds are analogous to cobble deposits of fluvial sedimentary systems. Although several mechanisms have been proposed for the formation of the nodule beds, it was found that, at more than one locality, the nodule beds are overbank levee deposits. The geological occurrence of the nodules, certain diagnostic aspects of the flow morphology and consideration of the inferred emplacement process indicate that the Kaupulehu flow had an exceptionally low viscosity on eruption and that the flow of the lava stream was extremely rapid, with flow velocities of at least 10 m s^-1 (more than 40 km h^-1). This flow is the youngest on Hualalai Volcano and future eruptions of a similar type would pose considerable hazard to life as well as property.     

Late Pleistocene to Holocene eruptive activity of Pico de Orizaba,Eastern Mexico

The Late Pleistocene to Holocene eruptive history of Pico de Orizaba can be divided into 11 eurptive episodes. Each eruptive episode lasted several hundred years, the longest recorded being about 1000 years (the Xilomich episode). Intervals of dormancy range from millenia during the late Pleistocene to about 500 years, the shortest interval recorded in the Holocene. This difference could reflect either changes in the volcano's activity or that the older stratigraphic record is less complete than the younger. Eruptive mechanisms during the late Pleistocene were characterized by dome extrusions, lava flows and ash-and-scoria-flow generating eruptive columns. However, in Holocene time plinian activity became increasingly important. The increase in dacitic plinian eruptions over time is related to increased volumes of dacitic magma beneath Pico de Orizaba. We suggest that the magma reservoir under Pico de Orizaba is stratified. The last eruptive episode, which lasted from about 690 years bp until ad 1687, was initiated by a dacitic plinian eruption and was followed by effusive lava-forming eruptions. For the last 5,000 years the activity of the volcano has been gradually evolving towards such a trend, underlining the increasing importance of dacitic magma and stratification of the magma reservoir. Independent observations of Pico de Orizaba's glacier early this century indicate that some increase in volcanic activity occurred between 1906 and 1947, and that it was probably fumarolic.     

Rift zone reorganization through flank instability in ocean island volcanoes: an example from Tenerife, Canary Islands

The relationship between rift zones and flank instability in ocean island volcanoes is often inferred but rarely documented. Our field data, aerial image analysis, and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronology from Anaga basaltic shield volcano on Tenerife, Canary Islands, support a rift zone—flank instability relationship. A single rift zone dominated the early stage of the Anaga edifice (~6–4.5 Ma). Destabilization of the northern sector led to partial seaward collapse at about ~4.5 Ma, resulting in a giant landslide. The remnant highly fractured northern flank is part of the destabilized sector. A curved rift zone developed within and around this unstable sector between 4.5 and 3.5 Ma. Induced by the dilatation of the curved rift, a further rift-arm developed to the south, generating a three-armed rift system. This evolutionary sequence is supported by elastic dislocation models that illustrate how a curved rift zone accelerates flank instability on one side of a rift, and facilitates dike intrusions on the opposite side. Our study demonstrates a feedback relationship between flank instability and intrusive development, a scenario probably common in ocean island volcanoes. We therefore propose that ocean island rift zones represent geologically unsteady structures that migrate and reorganize in response to volcano flank instability.Editorial responsibility: T. DruittThis revised version was published online in February 2005 with typographical corrections and a changed wording.     

The Characteristics of Seismic Activity Before the Devastating Earthquake with M_W9.0 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra

INTRODUCTIONMeasured bythe China Earthquake Networks Center ,a great earthquake withMS8·7 occurred offthe west coast of Northern Sumatra at Beijing Time 08 :58 :55·2 on December 26 , 2004·Themagnitude of the earthquake determined by the National Earthquake Information Center of USA(NEIC) wasMW9·0 .The earthquakeisthe biggestinthe world afterthe 1964 Prince WilliamSound,Alaska earthquake .The tsunami triggered bythe Sumatra earthquake brought about severe devastationfor ten …     

长白山天池火山地震类型及火山活动性的初步研究

2002年以来，长白山天池火山区出现了地震活动增强、地形变加剧和多种地球化学异常等现象，火山口附近发生的多次有感地震在社会上产生了较大影响。本文利用2002年以来的流动地震观测资料，采用频谱分析、时频分析和多台站资料对比的方法，对火山区地震事件的类型进行了分析；对火山活动的危险性进行了初步研究。结果表明，目前天池火山区出现的大量地震活动仍然属于火山构造地震，少量台站地震记录中表现出的低频特征主要是由于局部介质影响造成的，排除了长周期地震引起的可能。尽管长白山天池火山地震活动明最增强，震群活动较为频繁，但仍属于岩浆活动的早期阶段，短期内发生火山喷发的危险性较小。     

基于地下电性结构探讨中国东北活动火山形成机制

东北地区是我国现代火山活动最强烈的地区之一，也是许多学者十分关注的地区。本文回顾了前人提出的关于该地区火山成因的研究成果；通过分析在东北活动火山区大地电磁观测研究的地壳上地幔结构和采用大地电磁网观测研究的地幔1000km以上的电性结构成果，发现长白山天池火山区存在地壳岩浆囊，其它活动火山没有发现地壳岩浆囊，但都存在通往地幔的岩浆通道；东北地区在80～120km左右和200～250km可能存在与地幔岩浆囊相关的地幔高温流体。基于电性结构的研究成果，作者提出了一种东北地区可能的活动火山成因假说。认为东北火山的成因可能与西太平洋板块俯冲到中国东北地区的地幔过渡带后产生脱水有密切关系。这种水以矿物组分或流体方式向上运移，在地幔200-250km和80～120km左右聚集，80～120km的聚集区可能是火山喷发的物质来源。     

意大利埃特纳火山的三维速度结构与地震活动性

本文的研究工作,得到了埃特纳火山下面的一组新的三维速度模型。作者们用１９８０年以来地方性地震在永久和临时地震台网在４个或更多台记录到的１２４９次地震的Ｐ和Ｓ波,被选来作走时反演。选择了几种判别标志与参数化办法以显示其类似的基本特征。表明在火山的东南象限在浅层,有Ｐ波的高速分怖,它同布格重力高异常有密切关系。在该区存在低的Ｖｐ／Ｖｓ比值;沿着中央火山管道,分布有高速Ｐ波和高的Ｖｐ／Ｖｓ比值;建议该处存在有稠密的侵入的岩浆体,延伸到２０千米左右的深度,该区附近有低速的Ｐ波速度。对震源的重新定位也显示出向外倾斜的易碎区,与中央火山管道延伸出一段Ｐ波高速异常区,位于中央火山口的附近。沿着中央火山口附近,有Ｐ波的低速区,它同次生的火山锥的分布有关,与部份熔融的深部岩浆库有联系。     

Late Holocene eruptive activity at Nevado Cayambe Volcano, Ecuador

 Four Late Holocene pyroclastic units composed of block and ash flows, surges, ashfalls of silicic andesite and dacite composition, and associated lahar deposits represent the recent products emitted by domes on the upper part of Nevado Cayambe, a large ice-capped volcano 60 km northeast of Quito. These units are correlated stratigraphically with fallout deposits (ash and lapilli) exposed in a peat bog. Based on ¹⁴C dating of the peat and charcoal, the following ages were obtained: ∼910 years BP for the oldest unit, 680–650 years BP for the second, and 400–360 years BP for the two youngest units. Moreover, the detailed tephrochronology observed in the peat bog and in other sections implies at least 21 volcanic events during the last 4000 years, comprising three principal eruptive phases of activity that are ∼300, 800, and 900 years in duration and separated by repose intervals of 600–1000 years. The last phase, to which the four pyroclastic units belong, has probably not ended, as suggested by an eruption in 1785–1786. Thus, Cayambe, previously thought to have been dormant for a long time, should be considered active and potentially dangerous to the nearby population of the Interandean Valley. Received: 5 July 1997 / Accepted: 21 October 1997