西部大开发中的农业结构调整思考

西部地区的农业发展直接影响到我国国民经济是否能够持续快速健康的发展，这是由于我国是农业大国，农业人口大约占全国人口比例的80％，而实现西部地区持续健康发展的关键在于对传统农业产业结构的调整，提高农业增长的结构变动效益，树立大农业观念，延长农业产业链，在联产承包责任制的基础上通过经营权的集中规模种植，达到实现农业结构调整生态化和产业一体化目标。西部地区在大开发战略实施中，如何将自身的发展环境劣势转变为优势，提出了农业结构调整模式的构想。     

Water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin

During the development of Qaidam Basin, which is an arid area in Northwest China, rational water resources utilization and optimization are primal prerequisites, and the main restrictive factors include the following facts: scarcy water resources are non-substitutional and uneven distributed in time and space. Based on the essential principle of sustainable development, this paper adopts Multiple Targets Decision by the Closest Value Model, and succeeds in getting the best plan, which can o…     

川滇强震的回归—马尔可夫链联合预测

本文应用回归—马尔可夫链联合预测地震的方法,结合川、滇强震的特点,对川、滇强震进行了计算,并作了预测验证。结果表明,该方法对川、滇强震的预测效果较好。     

Stratigraphic analysis and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association

The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association between two sequences of nominal data is investigated under the assumption of independent random sampling from a multinomial distribution slightly modified to suit geological applications. This modification is due to merging consecutive strata of the same rock type into one lithological unit, and can be described by a simple Markov chain. A distinction is made between the case in which the theoretical frequencies are known, and the situation where these have to be estimated from the observed data.     

Water isotopic and hydrochemical evolution of a lake chain in the northern Great Plains and its paleoclimatic implications

Oxygen isotopes and geochemistry from lake sediments are commonly used as proxies of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, but the importance of present-day hydrologic processes in controlling these proxies are sometimes not well established and understood. Here we use present-day hydrochemical data from 13 lakes in a hydrologically connected lake chain in the northern Great Plains (NGP) to investigate isotopic and solute evolution along a hydrologic gradient. The ¹⁸O and ²H of water from the chain of lakes, when plotted in ²H - ¹⁸O space, form a line with a slope of 5.9, indicating that these waters fall on an evaporation trend. However, 10 of the 13 lakes are isotopically similar (¹⁸O = –6 ± 1 VSMOW) and show no correlation with salinity (which ranges from 1 to 65). The lack of correlation implies that the isotopic composition of various source waters rather than in-lake evaporation is the main control of the ¹⁸O of the lakes. Groundwater, an important input in the water budget of this chain of lakes, has a lower ¹⁸O value (–16.7 in 1998) than that of mean annual precipitation (–11) owing to selective recharge from snow melt. For the lakes in this chain with salinity < 15, the water Mg/Ca ratios are strongly correlated with salinity, whereas Sr/Ca is not. The poor correlation between Sr/Ca and salinity results from uptake of Sr by endogenic aragonite. These new results indicate that ¹⁸O records may not be interpreted simply in term of climate in the NGP, and that local hydrology needs to be adequately investigated before a meaningful interpretation of sedimentary records can be reached.     

地球物理灾害链有关物理问题的讨论

对地球物理灾害链的致灾机理,地震引起的放气范围、放气时间过程的计算方法,以及地气耦合致灾模式,进行了讨论和分析。分析结果认为,巨灾大都是多种因素迭加和强化的结果。由于单学科往往提出的致灾因素有限,所以预测效果不甚理想。要多学科从多种因素上去研究,才能改进大灾预测手段和方法,最后达到灾害链全链预测的目的。     

洞庭湖镉迁移转化的马尔可夫模型评价

讨论了在现时泥沙、水体、鱼类、藻类的含镉状态下洞庭湖的输入输出通量；并以其为例，在简要介绍马尔可夫链数学方法的基础上，建立了湖泊生态系统中镉迁移转化的马尔可夫链数学模型，初步评价了当洞庭湖不断有镉加入、系统到达状态稳定时各种介质中的镉总量及镉的迁移转化趋势。     

Gibbs sampler by sampling-importance-resampling

Among the Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the Gibbs sampler has the advantage that it samples from the conditional distributions for each unknown parameter, thus decomposing the sample space. In the case the conditional distributions are not tractable, the Gibbs sampler by means of sampling-importance-resampling is presented here. It uses the prior density function of a Bayesian analysis as the importance sampling distribution. This leads to a fast convergence of the Gibbs sampler as demonstrated by the smoothing with preserving the edges of 3D images of emission tomography.     

广义极值分布及其在水文中的应用

广义极值分布,包括Ｉ型、Ⅱ型和Ⅲ型,是一套完整的统计分布。以往,由于研究不足,常常只能采用极值Ｉ型分布,使应用受到了限制。本文中,详细地探讨了广义极值分布的统计特性,首次研制了该分布的离均系数表,并给出了水文频率计算中的示例。分析表明,应用广义极值分布,也能得到较好的适线结果。特别是有了离均系数表,对水文频率分析和各类统计计算是十分方便的。     

试论工程场地砂土液化的综合评判——以福-泉高速公路长乐营前三汊港特大桥为例

本文以对营前特大桥桥位区的砂土液化的综合评判为例子,提出砂土液化必须运用定值准则的概念与方法并结合各种宏观液化势判定手段进行综合评判,文中还针对水下孔的水位取值进行了讨论。