Probabilistic and fuzzy reliability analysis of a sample slope near Aliano

Slope stability assessment is a geotechnical problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of them, e.g., are connected to the variability of soil parameters involved in the analysis. Beginning from a correct geotechnical characterization of the examined site, only a complete approach to uncertainty matter can lead to a significant result. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to model data uncertainty in order to perform slope stability analysis with a good degree of significance.

Once the input data have been determined, a probabilistic stability assessment (first-order second moment and Monte Carlo analysis) is performed to obtain the variation of failure probability vs. correlation coefficient between soil parameters. A first result is the demonstration of the stability of first-order second moment (FOSM) (both with normal and lognormal distribution assumption) and Monte Carlo (MC) solutions, coming from a correct uncertainty modelling. The paper presents a simple algorithm (Fuzzy First Order Second Moment, FFOSM), which uses a fuzzy-based analysis applied to data processing.     

智能岩石力学及其内容

本文针对岩石力学研究中目前存在的问题和信息时代的要求, 提出了21世纪的智能岩石力学的新思想和研究内容。它是综合现有各种行之有效的方法, 系统研究岩石工程问题, 提高岩石力学解决复杂问题的准确性。     

地震相技术在煤层气勘探中的应用

在分析了采用地震相技术预测煤层气含量可行性的基础上,首先利用无监督向量量化网络对研究区地震资料进行了地震波形划分,然后在钻孔实测煤层气含量值的指导下,依赖地震波形特征反演与煤层气含量有关综合特征,完成了使用地震相分布图对勘探区煤层气含量的预测。预测结果与实测值相符,具有较高的预测分辨率,从而证明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Sedimentary evolution of overlapped sand bodies in terrestrial faulted lacustrine basin: Insights from 3D stratigraphic forward modeling

Terrestrial faulted lacustrine basins usually have large variabilities in structural subsidence and multiple river sources. The facies in such basins are thus characterised by frequently changed facies and complex relationship of overlapped sand bodies (e.g. Liaoxi Depression of Liaodong Bay, Bohai Sea, China). Therefore, it's a great challenge to quantitatively describe evolution of sand bodies and their overlap relationship. In this study a three-dimensional stratigraphic forward model is used to solve this problem, which is corrected according to well log data. After the parameter optimization was verified against borehole strata thickness and lithology, this model had a thickness error within 8%, and the lithology distribution agreed with the well data as a whole.Four evolution phases of the Shahejie 3 Formation were recognised through the modeling. In the first phase, the lake level rose, and the eastern fan delta sand developed. In the second phase, the fan delta sand scaled up, and the braided river delta front sand developed at a small scale. In the third phase, the lake level shifted from falling to rising, the fan delta sand further expanded the scale, and the braided river delta developed at a large scale. Sands on both sides overlapped at a large scale. In the fourth phase, the lake level rose, the lake basin expanded, and lake shale was the main lithology in the study area. From the sedimentary evolution of Es3 formation, sand overlapped in the third stage. In 39.75 Ma, two parts of the sand body began to overlap and reached largest scale in 39.6 Ma, which was approximately 10 km². Both then retrograded to a separation in 39 Ma when the overlap ended.Coupling stratigraphic forward simulation with uncertainty quantification allowed us to estimate the influence of each stratigraphic parameter on sand overlap. Fluvial discharge appears to be the most influential parameter while the initial bathymetry and lake level variations exert a minor to moderate impact.     

A unified assessment of marine Mediterranean assemblages: a lesson from benthic hydroids

Hydroids are important components of the communities of rocky bottom shallow coastal areas. The hydrozoan fauna of the Mediterranean Sea is probably one of most investigated in the world, with lots of faunistic and biogeographical studies. However, quantitative studies using the same sampling methodology and controlled sampling effort have been restricted to areas in the Western and Central Mediterranean. We compared hydroid assemblages in four areas of the Mediterranean Sea, from the Gulf of Cádiz to the South Adriatic Sea, following the same sampling and quantification methodology. Our analysis showed the dominant Atlantic character of the assemblages of the Gulf of Cádiz and the South Alboran Sea because of the influence of the inflowing Atlantic waters. Conversely, the hydroid assemblages of the North Alboran Sea were more similar to the assemblages in the Ligurian and in the South Adriatic, and with a number of species ranking between the observed in these two Mediterranean zones. Fourteen species were identified as making the most significant contributions to characterizing the Mediterranean hydroid species pool from a quantitative point of view. These taxa include species previously named as typical components of the Mediterranean hydroid fauna as well as those only recently recorded in the region (Eudendrium moulouyensis) and invaders such as Clytia hummelincki.     

Inverse vibration technique for structural health monitoring of offshore jacket platforms

In this paper a new approach is introduced for structural health monitoring of offshore jacket platforms. The procedure uses the measured ambient vibration responses and the corresponding readable natural frequencies and mode shapes of the structural system. Since offshore platforms are composed of heavy topsides supported by jacket structures, participation of the first mode is dominant in each direction in the response of the structure under field excitations. Moreover, ambient vibrations such as wave loads and boat impacts only excite the first modes of the structure. Therefore, it is difficult to find higher modes and the pertinent frequencies by use of accelerometers data. The introduced innovative method in this research uses the first few fundamental frequencies and mode shapes of the structure. The algorithm employs the inverse vibration technique to develop a simple two and three dimensional reference model for monitoring health of the structure. To show the efficiency of the proposed procedure, a case study is carried out on the models of a jacket-type platform in the Persian Gulf, namely SPD2. Finally, an uncertainty analysis is performed, due to the existence of noises and uncertainties in input data collected by accelerometers. Results indicate that the proposed method has the ability to detect the induced damages by a high level of accuracy considering probable sources of error.     

Numerical study on added resistance of ships by using a time-domain Rankine panel method

This paper considers the numerical computation of added resistance on ships. As a method of solution, a higher-order Rankine panel method is applied in time domain. Furthermore, two different formulations, Neumann-Kelvin and double-body linearizations, are applied to investigate the difference between computational results. The quantities of added resistance are obtained by integrating the second-order pressure on the body surface. Computational results are validated by comparing with experimental data and other computational results on several models, and fair agreements are found for all the models. The components of added resistance are observed with regard to integral terms, radiation and diffraction components. This study continues to the computation of added resistance in irregular waves. This kind of computational approach can provide some important information to understand the uncertainty level of towing-tank measurement of added resistance. In this study, a series of long numerical simulations are carried out, and their statistical variations are observed for different time windows. Based on this observation, an appropriate criterion and averaging method are proposed for the prediction of added resistance in irregular waves.     

ICP-AES法测定土壤样品中铜的不确定度评定

建立电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱法（ICP-AES）测定土壤样品中铜的数学模型,分析不确定度产生原因,并对引起的不确定度分量进行量化,最终合成标准不确定度,通过乘以95%概率下的扩展因子2,获得测量结果的扩展不确定度。     

A multiplier-based method of generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfalls

Catchment modelling for water resources assessment is still mainly based on rain gauge measurements as these are more easily available and cover longer periods than radar and satellite-based measurements. Rain gauges however measure the rain falling on an extremely small proportion of the catchment and the areal rainfall obtained from these point measurements are consequently substantially uncertain. These uncertainties in areal rainfall estimation are generally ignored and the need to assess their impact on catchment modelling and water resources assessment is therefore imperative. A method that stochastically generates daily areal rainfall from point rainfall using multiplicative perturbations as a means of dealing with these uncertainties is developed and tested on the Berg catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa. The differences in areal rainfall obtained by alternately omitting some of the rain gauges are used to obtain a population of plausible multiplicative perturbations. Upper bounds on the applicable perturbations are set to prevent the generation of unrealistically large rainfall and to obtain unbiased stochastic rainfall. The perturbations within the set bounds are then fitted into probability density functions to stochastically generate the perturbations to impose on areal rainfall. By using 100 randomly-initialized calibrations of the AWBM catchment model and Sequent Peak Analysis, the effects of incorporating areal rainfall uncertainties on storage-yield-reliability analysis are assessed. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty is found to reduce the required storage by up to 20%. Rainfall uncertainty also increases flow-duration variability considerably and reduces the median flow-duration values by an average of about 20%.     

地铁工程地质灾害危险性综合评估定量方法——以西安地铁一号线为例

以西安市地铁一号线建设工程地质灾害危险性评估为例,对综合评估量化评分方法进行了理论探讨和实例分析,主要讨论了评估因子的选取、各因子权重和分级取值、危险性等级划分和各级分值范围确定、评分方法和步骤等几个方面的内容。实例分析结果表明,基于本文量化评分方法基础上的地质灾害危险性分区能够较好地反映多因素的综合影响,评估结果合理可信。