Sequential Gaussian simulation for geosystems modeling: A machine learning approach

Sequential Gaussian Simulation(SGSIM)as a stochastic method has been developed to avoid the smoothing effect produced in deterministic methods by generating various stochastic realizations.One of the main issues of this technique is,however,an intensive computation related to the inverse operation in solving the Kriging system,which significantly limits its application when several realizations need to be produced for uncertainty quantification.In this paper,a physics-informed machine learning(PIML)model is proposed to improve the computational efficiency of the SGSIM.To this end,only a small amount of data produced by SGSIM are used as the training dataset based on which the model can discover the spatial correlations between available data and unsampled points.To achieve this,the governing equations of the SGSIM algorithm are incorporated into our proposed network.The quality of realizations produced by the PIML model is compared for both 2D and 3D cases,visually and quantitatively.Furthermore,computational performance is evaluated on different grid sizes.Our results demonstrate that the proposed PIML model can reduce the computational time of SGSIM by several orders of magnitude while similar results can be produced in a matter of seconds.     

Nonlinear dynamics and recurrence analysis of extreme precipitation for observed and general circulation model generated climates

A statistical framework based on nonlinear dynamics theory and recurrence quantification analysis of dynamical systems is proposed to quantitatively identify the temporal characteristics of extreme (maximum) daily precipitation series. The methodology focuses on both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated climates for present (1961–2000) and future (2061–2100) periods which correspond to 1xCO₂ and 2xCO₂ simulations. The daily precipitation has been modelled as a stochastic process coupled with atmospheric circulation. An automated and objective classification of daily circulation patterns (CPs) based on optimized fuzzy rules was used to classify both observed CPs and ECHAM4 GCM‐generated CPs for 1xCO₂ and 2xCO₂ climate simulations (scenarios). The coupled model ‘CP‐precipitation’ was suitable for precipitation downscaling. The overall methodology was applied to the medium‐sized mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central‐Western Greece. Results reveal substantial differences between the observed maximum daily precipitation statistical patterns and those produced by the two climate scenarios. A variable nonlinear deterministic behaviour characterizes all climate scenarios examined. Transitions’ patterns differ in terms of duration and intensity. The 2xCO₂ scenario contains the strongest transitions highlighting an unusual shift between floods and droughts. The implications of the results to the predictability of the phenomenon are also discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

联合效用理论与风险量化的防波堤决策模型研究

回顾和总结了当前防波堤项目的决策模型,介绍了效用理论的起源、发展和理论基础,提出了效用理论结合防波堤风险量化方法的新型风险决策模型.以某直立式防波堤的优化设计为例,将防波堤滑移失效概率、防波堤尺度、生命周期内的风险损失和预期收益、决策者风险态度等量化指标纳入决策系统,比较了费用最小化、费用-收益权衡和效用三种决策模型,探讨了优化设计重现期的确定.结果表明,决策者的风险态度将极大地影响防波堤方案的选择,而费用-收益模型实质上是效用模型的一种特殊情况,这凸显了效用模型的包容性和合理性.     

赤潮藻鉴定与定量检测方法进展

从基于形态学差异的图像识别技术、基于核酸分析的检测方法、基于免疫分析的检测方法、基于特征色素的方法和基于光学特性的方法5个方面,比较系统地回顾了有关赤潮藻定性鉴定和定量检测技术的发展,并就存在的问题和发展趋势作了简要分析。     

时空数据质量与模型

时空数据不确定性与数据质量是地理信息科学的基础理论之一,也是GIS应用发展的重要问题.本文作为ISPRS2008大会专题"时空数据质量与模型"导读,从空间实体的位置不确定性、数字高程模型的位置不确定性、遥感数据的不确定性、属性数据的不确定性与质量控制、空间分析与操作的不确定性传播和空间数据采集的不确定性与处理等方面,分析了时空数据不确定性与数据质量的最近发展.     

Uncertainty in the analysis of speed and powering trials

Full-scale speed trials of a ship have been questioned for the uncertainty of speed and power measurements especially when the sea conditions differ from the ideal calm water conditions. Such uncertainty has been investigated by utilizing ITTC standard speed/powering trial analysis procedure through Monte Carlo simulations. A case study was conducted for a set of sea trials with 12 sister ships for which sea trial data were available for a range of displacement, water depth, water temperature, wind speed and wave height values. Precision errors were observed as the most influential error source for the whole speed range, even though their effects were more substantial at low speeds. Beaufort scale was observed as the most important elementary error source indicating the need for the best weather conditions for the most reliable sea trail predictions.     

砂卵(砾)石动剪切模量比与阻尼比的试验研究

砂卵(砾)石的动剪切模量比和阻尼比是河谷地貌场地地震反应分析的重要参数,对设计地震动参数的确定有重要影响。本文利用商洛市地震小区划项目砂卵石的动三轴试验结果,结合其他砂卵(砾)石动三轴试验结果,分组统计得到了稍密、中密、密实砂卵(砾)动三轴试验的推荐结果。建立了典型场地模型,研究了其动剪切模量比和阻尼比的不确定性对场地地震反应的影响。研究表明:动剪切模量比、阻尼比平均值±1倍标准差的不确定性对砂卵石场地峰值加速度的影响较小,说明了分组及统计结果的合理性;不同概率水平下,动剪模量比、阻尼比的变化导致高频部分反应谱有明显差异,0.04-0.1s的反应谱变化范围在20%左右,但对大于1.0s的长周期反应谱影响很小。针对砂卵(砾)石动剪切模量比和阻尼比的研究对提高工程场地设计地震动参数的可靠性具有重要意义。     

Decoupling algorithm for evaluating multiple beam damages in steel moment‐resisting frames

Post‐earthquake safety evaluation of steel moment‐resisting frames mainly relies on the inspection of seismic damage to beam–column connections. Recently, in order to evaluate seismic damage of steel connections in a prompt and precise manner, a local damage evaluation method based on dynamic strain responses has been proposed and receives attention. In the evaluation method where strain responses are measured by piezoelectric strain sensors, a strain‐based damage index has been developed for evaluating individual seismic beam damage in a steel frame. However, for a steel frame suffering multiple beam damages, the damage index deteriorates its performance in identifying small damages with the presence of neighboring severe damages because of the moment redistributions induced by larger damages. This paper presents a decoupling algorithm that removes the issue of damage interaction and improves the performance of the damage index. The decoupling algorithm was derived on the basis of damage‐induced moment release and redistribution mechanism. The effectiveness of the decoupling algorithm was numerically and experimentally investigated using a nine‐story steel frame model and a large scale five‐story steel frame testbed that can simulate multiple fractures at beam ends. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

高层抗震结构造价的改进控制模型研究——基于一恢复重建高层的实例分析

采用WSR模型分析建筑工程抗震结构造价控制问题时,存在造价控制效果差的弊端。通过设计的高层建筑工程抗震结构造价控制模型构建造价控制的递阶层次结构,获取高层建筑工程造价控制的多种方案,从多种方案中通过三标度法和权重向量法获取造价控制的最优方案;另外采用质量量化QoS调度方法进行高层建筑工程造价效益控制约束均衡设计,以获取最优方案中高层建筑工程抗震结构造价控制的结果。实验结果表明,所设计模型可有效分析高层建筑的质量化特征,可改进控制高层抗震结构工程造价,预估消耗成本可控制在1.8万元以下,且分析耗时均值为0.15 h,具有节省成本和效率快的优势,控制效果较好。