区域生态服务价值约束的可持续经济规模量化方法构建

The article conducts a research through theoretical carding, framework construction, and calculation path selection, and concludes that the contribution of ecosystems to human activities mainly comes from the ecological service function. Therefore, based on the relationship between the natural capital stock and flow, ecological services value (ESV for short) or eco-exergy services value (EEV) reflects the output capacity of ecological services. Regional ecological services value is connected to GDP through property ownership and main pressure sources. GDP or the ecological services value reflects the pressure of man-made capital on natural capital. The article attempts to use the ecological services value, eco-exergy services value, and GDP to construct the ecological service output capacity index (R) and pressure index (U), and by introducing the decoupling theory, it proposes a method to “return” the re-coupling GDP to a decoupling state and calculate the sustainable economic scale. It takes Ningdong Energy-Chemical Industry Base in Ningxia as the subject, and has three findings. Firstly, from 2007 to 2017, the economic development and ecological services were in a re-coupling state and the sustainable economic scale was 2.33×10⁹ to 64.3×10⁹ yuan, which was significantly lower than the total industrial output value in the corresponding year. Although the base deploys protection during construction, the R index began to decline after 2015, and there exists a risk of degradation. Secondly, the method uses the “declining turning point” of the R index to mark the bottom line, and attempts to put forward a quantitative method of regional sustainable economic scale from the perspective of the internal generation principle of the ecological contribution of capital value, which is helpful to the analysis method of reasonable population size, green GDP and ecological compensation. Thirdly, combined with the decoupling theory, the method can analyze the boundary of economic scale under regional ecological constraints, which has certain application value to enrich evaluations methods on sustainability.     

Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals to changes in model dimension

 A comparison is made between a circular and a more adequate spherical reaction-diffusion multi-media mass balance model. This comparison adds new aspects to ongoing debates about more effective assessments of potentially harmful substances including persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The circular model serves as a paradigm in investigations of persistence and spatial range of non-polar chemicals. An analytic solution of the spherical model is presented. It is utilized in order to establish circular spatial ranges as versatile approximations of their spherical counterparts for most cases. Deviations in the few exceptions are demonstrated as playing a minor role compared to sensitivities against parameter uncertainties which characterize these exceptional cases as well. The sensitivities are fundamentally linked to the multi-scale nature of the underlying system. Finally, the insensitivity of spatial ranges with respect to dimension – circle versus sphere – is further secured by extensive studies of the role of the mode of entry for which a set of rules is established. Present address: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany e-mail: held@pik-potsdam.de The author would like to thank B. H. Hawkins, H. A. Schweers, and M. Str?be for helpful comments.     

Physiological and genetical adaptation to temperature in fish populations

The physiological and genetical adaptation of fishes to environmental temperatures has been studied by analyzing data concerning: (i) the oxygen binding properties of haemoglobin recorded during growth experiments on Atlantic cod, and (ii) the primary structure of haemoglobin (Hb) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) of several fish species living in polar and temperate areas. The results on the oxygen binding properties of cod's haemoglobin indicate that for this species a temperature of around 12°C is the most favourable one, irrespective of the haemoglobin genotype, and are in line with recent evidence challenging the existence of significant evolutionary differences between cod stocks in North Atlantic. The primary structures of both Hb and LDH from species living under temperate environments show a higher variability as compared to that from polar species, although the difference in the recurrent patterns of hydrophobicity between the two areas is much larger for Hb. These results highlight the dominant role of physiological and genetical factors in shaping the adaptation to temperature at the individual and at the species level, respectively.     

基于元数据扩展的空间数据质量管理方法

空间数据质量问题是GIS系统建设成功与否的关键。首先对GIS中空间数据质量问题的引起原因和表现方式进行分析，并通过对元数据方法的分析和扩充，试图探寻一种能对数据质量进行有效管理的方法，以提高GIS空间数据库质量问题的可靠性和可控性。     

Uncertainty pattern in landslide susceptibility prediction modelling: Effects of different landslide boundaries and spatial shape expressions

In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models.     

Accounting for image uncertainty in SAR-based flood mapping

Operational flood mitigation and flood modeling activities benefit from a rapid and automated flood mapping procedure. A valuable information source for such a flood mapping procedure can be remote sensing synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. In order to be reliable, an objective characterization of the uncertainty associated with the flood maps is required.This work focuses on speckle uncertainty associated with the SAR data and introduces the use of a non-parametric bootstrap method to take into account this uncertainty on the resulting flood maps. From several synthetic images, constructed through bootstrapping the original image, flood maps are delineated. The accuracy of these flood maps is also evaluated w.r.t. an independent validation data set, obtaining, in the two test cases analyzed in this paper, F-values (i.e. values of the Jaccard coefficient) comprised between 0.50 and 0.65. This method is further compared to an image segmentation method for speckle analysis, with which similar results are obtained. The uncertainty analysis of the ensemble of bootstrapped synthetic images was found to be representative of image speckle, with the advantage that no segmentation and speckle estimations are required.Furthermore, this work assesses to what extent the bootstrap ensemble size can be reduced while remaining representative of the original ensemble, as operational applications would clearly benefit from such reduced ensemble sizes.     

A method to define the palaeowind strength from lacustrine parameters

Gravelly beach ridges, which are formed solely by swash processes, may accurately reflect past wave conditions. The thickness (or height) of a gravelly beach ridge approximately equals the height of wave inundation, which is the sum of the surge and wave run‐up. Their ancient counterparts, if well‐preserved and identified, can be used to estimate palaeowave conditions, which can later be converted to palaeowind intensities based on wind–wave relationships. A technique is described for estimating the palaeowind speed in this paper, which is referred to as the gravelly beach‐ridge thickness technique. By comparing these estimates with instrumental wind records obtained at a modern lake, Qinghai Lake in north‐western China, the beach‐ridge thickness technique is shown to be useful for estimating the average wind speed (V _avg). When applying this method to ancient fetch‐limited basins, five parameters are necessary: (i) the thickness of the isolated gravelly beach ridge; (ii) the average depth of the water body; (iii) the palaeofetch; (iv) the angle between the palaeowind direction and the normal to the shoreline; and (v) the particle size. This technique was applied to an ancient example in the Eocene Dongying Depression, located in eastern China. The results indicate that the average wind speed of the northern wind ranged between 2·27 m sec⁻¹ and 8·36 m sec⁻¹ from 45·0 Ma to 42·0 Ma, and displayed a generally decreasing trend that included early strengthening followed by weakening and later strengthening during this period. The beach‐ridge thickness technique provides a new perspective on delineating palaeowind conditions and can be applied to ancient fetch‐limited basins with gravelly beach ridges worldwide. Generally, if a water body is sufficiently large (fetch exceeding 40 km), deep (average depth exceeding 10 m) and waves (or winds) are determined to approach the shoreline with high angles (angle of incidence <35°), then the calculation errors will be small to negligible.     

大型、超大型矿床的定量预测研究

以新疆某地金矿区 ,对金矿床密集区和异常密集区进行了综合性圈定,建立了扩展模型,应用数理化理论Ⅰ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ和特征分析法对金矿和异常密集区一量研究,该方法不私适应于金矿床,而且还奉承放床,具有普遍的意义。     

Stochastic observation error and uncertainty in water quality evaluation

When evaluating water quality, the influence of physical weight of the observed index is normally taken into account, but the influence of stochastic observation error (SOE) is not adequately considered. Using Monte Carlo simulation, combined with Shannon entropy, the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME) and Tsallis entropy, this study investigates the influence of stochastic observation error (SOE) for two cases of the observed index: small observation error and large observation error. Randomness and fuzziness represent two types of uncertainties that are deemed significant and should be considered simultaneously when developing or evaluating water quality models. To that end, three models are employed here: two of the models, named as model I and model II, consider both the fuzziness and randomness, and another model, considers only fuzziness. The results from three representative lakes in China show that for all three models, the influence of stochastic observation error (SOE) on water quality evaluation can be significant irrespective of whether the water quality index has a small observation error or a large observation error. Furthermore, when there is a significant difference in the accuracy of observations, the influence of stochastic observation error (SOE) on water quality evaluation increases. The water quality index whose SOE is minimum determines the results of evaluation.