基于分布式水文模型的雅鲁藏布江径流水源组成解析

为开展河川径流的水源解析,构建过程描述和本构参数两方面均有较强物理性的分布式水文模型。以雅鲁藏布江为对象,利用水文分区曲线对降雨、融雪和融冰等不同水源主导的流量过程进行划分,以划分的流量过程线子集对相应水文过程参数进行分步率定,提高了水文模型参数的物理性,以此构建了雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型及参数集,内部多个水文站点和流域雪水当量的验证表明模型具有良好的性能。基于模型解析了2001-2015年间雅鲁藏布江的径流水源组成,降雨、融雪、融冰水源对总径流量贡献的比例分别为66%、20%和14%。本文方法对高山寒区径流的水源解析有普遍意义,结果对理解气候变化下雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势有参考价值。     

地震危险性分析中专家意见的评定

本文发展了一种加权平均方法，用于综合考虑地震危险性分析中的专家意见。其中假定接近综合结果的专家意见具有的权系数较大，这样可以合理反映专家意见的一致性与差异性，另外，利用随机加权方法估计综合结果及权系数的不确定性，给出其统计特征量。     

Drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe

Flooding is the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climatic and socioeconomic change are expected to further increase the amount of loss in the future. To counteract this development, policymaking, and adaptation planning need reliable large-scale risk assessments and an improved understanding of potential risk drivers.In this study, recent datasets for hazard and flood protection standards are combined with high resolution exposure projections and attributes of vulnerability derived from open data sources. The independent and combined influence of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45 and rcp85 on fluvial flood risk are evaluated for three future periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085. Scenarios with improved and neglected private precaution are examined for their influence on flood risk using a probabilistic, multivariable flood loss model — BN-FLEMOps — to estimate fluvial flood losses for residential buildings in Europe.The results on NUTS-3 level reveal that urban centers and their surrounding regions are the hotspots of flood risk in Europe. Flood risk is projected to increase in the British Isles and Central Europe throughout the 21st century, while risk in many regions of Scandinavia and the Mediterranean will stagnate or decline. Under the combined effects of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45, rcp85, fluvial flood risk in Europe is estimated to increase seven-fold and ten-fold respectively until the end of the century. Our results confirm the dominance of socioeconomic change over climate change on increasing risk. Improved private precautionary measures would reduce flood risk in Europe on an average by 15%. The quantification of future flood risk in Europe by integrating climate, socioeconomic and private precaution scenarios provides an overview of risk drivers, trends, and hotspots. This large-scale comprehensive assessment at a regional level resolution is valuable for multi-scale risk-based adaptation planning.     

唐山环湖路精细化评价分析

针对建立生态型公路需要对现有公路近况有整体评价和把握,而目前公路评价缺少统一的评价模型、指标体系选取较分散的问题,研究对公路按照主因素做分段处理,选取5个评价指标,建立了公路精细化评价体系。为了得到GIS可视化分析参数,在指标量化过程中将评价指标分成主观指标和客观指标分别量化,并计算精细化评价参数,以两个评价参数线性之和作为最终评价参数。最后运用GIS空间分析对唐山环湖路进行了探索性可视化分析,为我国的公路建设和公路养护提供建议性方案。     

科技量值的品质评定—校准、测样两阶段矢量合成法计算测量不确定度

实现单位统一、量值准确可靠的检测,是科技工作成功的前提,务必使用法定计量单位,在硬件、软件受控满足法制计量要求条件下,获取优质可溯源的量值 R_opt±u(R_opt )=(R ?-?R)±√(u_j^2 (R)+u_i^2 (R) ) 由此导出校准j、测量i两阶段、矢量合成简化计算测量不确定度的方法。特别有利于有多种标样的实验室,以标样做加密质控样,随机插入批样中,由管理者对n (≥11)批质控样结果统计的系统误差?R和标准测量不确定度u(R),同时完成签发检测报告,考核检验员素质和常态化提供测量不确定度三大使命,履行对客户的检测值品质的承诺。     

Adapting to changes in volcanic behaviour: Formal and informal interactions for enhanced risk management at Tungurahua Volcano,Ecuador

This paper provides an example of how communities can adapt to extreme forms of environmental change and uncertainty over the longer term. We analyse the interactions between scientists, communities and risk managers and examine the interpretation and communication of uncertain scientific information during a long-lived volcanic eruption in Tungurahua, Ecuador. This is complemented with a detailed study of the eruptions of 2006 and 2014, which exemplifies the complexity of interactions during periods of heightened volcanic activity. Our study describes how a ‘shadow network’ has developed outside of, but in interaction with, the formal risk management institutions in Ecuador, improving decision-making in response to heightened volcanic activity.The findings suggest that the interactions have facilitated important adaptations in the scientific advisory response during eruptions (near-real-time interpretation of the volcanic hazards), in hazard communication, and in the evacuation processes. Improved communication between stakeholders and the establishment of thresholds for evacuations have created an effective voluntary evacuation system unique to Tungurahua, allowing people to continue to maintain their livelihoods during heightened volcanic activity and associated periods of uncertainty. Understanding how shadow networks act to minimise the negative consequences of volcanic activity provides valuable insights for increasing societal resilience to other types of hazards.     

Uncertainty reduction and sampling efficiency in slope designs using 3D conditional random fields

A method of combining 3D Kriging for geotechnical sampling schemes with an existing random field generator is presented and validated. Conditional random fields of soil heterogeneity are then linked with finite elements, within a Monte Carlo framework, to investigate optimum sampling locations and the cost-effective design of a slope. The results clearly demonstrate the potential of 3D conditional simulation in directing exploration programmes and designing cost-saving structures; that is, by reducing uncertainty and improving the confidence in a project’s success. Moreover, for the problems analysed, an optimal sampling distance of half the horizontal scale of fluctuation was identified.     

Uncertainty Analysis of the Parameters of the Temperature-index Method: A Case Study of Shiyi Glacier in Qilian Mountains

In order to assess the performance of the common temperature-index melt model at both spatial and temporal scale in Qilian Mountains, we performed the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on the parameters of a common temperature-index method and evaluated the glacier mass balance on a small alpine glacier, which is separated into two relatively independent branches, with the daily mass balance and the meteorological data in the summer of 2011 and 2012. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis was carried out by Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for different conditions. The results showed that the temperature-index method could properly capture the diurnal variability of the glacier mass balance. But strong equifinality of model parameter existsed in model calibration due to the uncertainty in the parameters. The model was very sensitive to changes in the value of K_ice, followed by the K_snow and T_s. It was also found that the GLUE approaches could estimate and derive the posterior distributions of 3 parameters properly. Moreover, there existed an acceptable range, which ensured high precision under different conditions.     

Exploring the link between urban form and work related transportation using combined satellite image and census information: Case of the Great lakes region

Aspects of urban transportation have significant implications for resource consumption and environmental quality. The level of travel activity, the viability of various modes of transportation and hence the level of transportation-related emissions are influenced by the structure of cities, i.e., their urban forms. While it is widely recognized that satellite remote sensing can provide spatial information on urban land cover and land use, its effective use for understanding impacts of urban form on issues such as transportation requires that this information be integrated with relevant demographic information. A comprehensive bi-national urban database, the Great Lakes Urban Survey (GLUS), comprising all cities with populations in excess of 200,000 has been created from Landsat imagery and national census and transportation survey information from Canada and the United States. A suite of analysis tools are proposed to utilize information sets such as GLUS to investigate the link between urban form and work-related travel. A new indicator, the Employment Deficit Measure (EDM), is proposed to quantify the balance between employment and worker availability at different transit horizons and hence to assess the viability of alternate modes of transportation. It is argued that the high degree of residential and commercial/industrial land uses greatly impact travel to work mode options as well as commute distance. A spatial interaction model is developed and found to accurately predict travel distance aggregated at the census tract level. We argue that this model could also be used to explore the relative levels of travel activity associated with different urban forms.     

GIS中空间数据属性不确定性研究

空间数据是ＧＩＳ的主要研究和表示的对象,其质量的好坏及其在ＧＩＳ中的正确表示是ＧＩＳ工程建设中最重要和最基本的问题。文中运用模糊分析学的理论和方法,在系统地分析了ＧＩＳ空间数据属性不确定性的基础上,提出了模糊关系数据模型,并探讨了其相应的基本操作和运算的原理和方法,对ＧＩＳ的研究和应用具有一定的实用价值。