The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions

Abstract

A new version of the PAGE model, PAGE2002, has been used to calculate the marginal impacts of CO₂, CH₄ and SF₆ emissions based on Scenario A2 of the IPCC. The mean marginal impact of CO₂ is found to be US$19 per tonne of carbon (or about US$5 per tonne of CO₂), for methane it is US$105 per tonne, and for SF₆ it is US$200,000 per tonne. For each gas, the range between the 5% and 95% points is about an order of magnitude. The climate change impacts of methane are a significant proportion of its market price, and for SF₆ the climate change impacts are much larger than the market price. The economics of schemes to reduce the leakage of SF₆ are transformed once the climate change impacts are properly counted.     

The spectre of uncertainty in management of exploited fish stocks: The illustrative case of Atlantic bluefin tuna

The recent overexploitation of East Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna stock has been well documented in the media where it has become the archetype of overfishing and general mis-management. Beyond the public debate, the crisis also highlighted how the interactions between science and management can change through time according to the awareness of the public opinion. To reflect these issues, the history of Atlantic bluefin tuna overfishing is first described. Then, the major uncertainties that undermine the current scientific advice are summarized and the importance of reducing their impacts by improving knowledge and developing robust scientific framework is considered. The study also discusses how uncertainty was used by different lobbies to discredit science-based management. The recent improvement in bluefin tuna stock status following the implementation of the rebuilding plan shows that, despite uncertainty in the scientific advice, the management of a heavily exploited fish stock can be positive when there is a political will. However, optimizing long-term yields of modern fisheries implies good science. The study concludes by advocating for the implementation of a scientific quota that should be part of the management framework to support the scientific advice.     

Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response

The need to adapt to climate change is now widely recognised as evidence of its impacts on social and natural systems grows and greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Yet efforts to adapt to climate change, as reported in the literature over the last decade and in selected case studies, have not led to substantial rates of implementation of adaptation actions despite substantial investments in adaptation science. Moreover, implemented actions have been mostly incremental and focused on proximate causes; there are far fewer reports of more systemic or transformative actions. We found that the nature and effectiveness of responses was strongly influenced by framing. Recent decision-oriented approaches that aim to overcome this situation are framed within a “pathways” metaphor to emphasise the need for robust decision making within adaptive processes in the face of uncertainty and inter-temporal complexity. However, to date, such “adaptation pathways” approaches have mostly focused on contexts with clearly identified decision-makers and unambiguous goals; as a result, they generally assume prevailing governance regimes are conducive for adaptation and hence constrain responses to proximate causes of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore a broader conceptualisation of “adaptation pathways” that draws on ‘pathways thinking’ in the sustainable development domain to consider the implications of path dependency, interactions between adaptation plans, vested interests and global change, and situations where values, interests, or institutions constrain societal responses to change. This re-conceptualisation of adaptation pathways aims to inform decision makers about integrating incremental actions on proximate causes with the transformative aspects of societal change. Case studies illustrate what this might entail. The paper ends with a call for further exploration of theory, methods and procedures to operationalise this broader conceptualisation of adaptation.     

基于递归定量分析的实测海杂波中的小目标检测

提高海杂波中小目标的检测能力,在海洋监视、军事侦察和浮冰检测等军事、民用领域中有着广泛需求,因此海杂波的研究一直是雷达技术领域研究的热点问题。首次将递归定量分析方法引入实测海杂波数据分析中,采用该方法计算海杂波时间序列相空间重构后各递归参量并将其应用于海杂波背景下小目标检测,得到了较好的结果。实验初步证明了采用递归定量分析方法对海杂波数据进行分析和小目标检测是可行并且有效的。     

中国大北方上古生界油气勘探新领域（代序）

矿田构造是指在矿田范围内,控制矿床的形成和分布的地质构造因素的总和。在矿田构造和矿床构造的含义中,既包括构造形迹和岩石组构特征,又包括控矿构造的形成机制和发展历史。近10几年来的矿田矿床研究不仅强调构造对于矿体的形态、分布和组合的控制作用,也深入于构造作用对成岩成矿过程的研究。综合分析了矿田构造研究的研究历史、研究内容、研究现状与问题,对矿田构造与找矿研究的发展方向进行了展望。     

辽河口沉积物反硝化细菌数量及多样性的研究

对辽河口沉积物中反硝化细菌的数量、多样性以及群落结构进行了研究.采用MPN-Griess分析了春夏秋三季的反硝化细菌数量,结果表明其数量春季最多,秋季次之,夏季最低,且从辽河下游及河口向远海区域逐渐降低.采用PCR-RFLP对反硝化细菌的亚硝酸盐还原酶基因(nirS)进行分析,发现沉积物中的反硝化细菌类型较新,大多数细...     

Kernelized fourth quantification theory for mineral target prediction

This paper presents a nonlinear multidimensional scaling model, called kernelized fourth quantification theory, which is an integration of kernel techniques and the fourth quantification theory. The mo...     

N2-CH4（CO2）混合气体在线标样制备及其拉曼定量因子测定

利用混合气体的标准样品对激光拉曼探针进行标定,可以快速准确地对包裹体中的无机及有机气相组分进行定量分析。而常用的商用钢瓶装混合气体标样,存在费用高、气体组成单一固定等缺点。本文设计了一套在线标样制备装置,提出一种在线配置不同浓度和压力条件下混合气体标样的方法。利用高纯度(纯度99.999%)的N2、CH4以及CO2钢瓶气,经过在线混合增压,在5 MPa和10 MPa条件下制备了N2摩尔分数为30%、50%和70%的N2-CH4以及N2-CO2混合气体在线标样。该方法制备的标样与70%N2+30%CO2的商用钢瓶气标样对比表明,CO2与N2的拉曼相对峰高以及相对峰面积值的误差在4%以内,具有较高的准确度和重现性。通过不同压力和浓度条件下CH4以及CO2的拉曼相对定量因子测定表明,气体的相对定量因子在5~10 MPa压力条件下与压力及组成无关。地质样品应用结果表明,本方法可以方便、灵活、准确地按任意比例将两瓶及两瓶以上纯气体钢瓶样品进行混合及增压,为激光拉曼标定、气体组成原位测量等提供了一种新的技术思路。     

隧道磁共振测深超前探测模型参数不确定度分析方法研究

地面磁共振方法探测地下水趋于成熟.随着研究的深入,磁共振技术在隧道超前探测方面也开展了应用.然而,由于隧道空间特殊环境限制,获取的磁共振信号信噪比极低,解释结果中各参数的确定性值得深思.基于这一问题,本文提出隧道磁共振测深超前探测模型参数不确定度分析方案,实际工作前,根据不同探测目标要求及环境噪声水平,优化仪器装置参数设计,提高解释结果准确性.本文首先在地面磁共振探测理论基础上,推导了考虑天线铺设角度影响的隧道矩形线圈激发场计算表达式,模拟了隧道准全空间磁共振测深正演响应.其次,基于后验模型协方差矩阵,计算模型参数标准偏差因子,划分参数不确定度等级.最后,构建三层含水模型,将第二层含水体作为观测目标.在仿真合成数据的基础上,分别探讨了电阻率、含水量、水体厚度、线圈边长、匝数、线圈旋转角度以及噪声水平等参数对目标含水体测定的影响.通过对比分析,得到如下结论：当探测目标前方地层的电阻率小于10 Ωm时,目标含水体的不确定度随着该电阻率的增大而降低;当该电阻率大于10 Ωm时,其不影响目标含水体的不确定度;目标体前方地层含水量的增大能够明显增加目标含水体的不确定度;目标层电阻率以及含水量对该层含水体的不确定度几乎不造成影响;目标层厚度越大其含水体的确定度越高;线圈边长和匝数的增大都能在很大程度上降低含水体的不确定度;线圈的偏转角度不影响目标体的不确定度;磁共振信号中噪声的幅度越大,含水体参数的不确定度越大.本文的研究结论有助于提高隧道磁共振探测数据反演参数的准确性,同时能够为实际探测提供预先优化参数的分析方案.     

往返式探空观测资料的质量控制及不确定性分析

为了推动新型探测资料在数值预报模式中的应用,本文进行了往返式探空资料同化应用前重要的基础性研究工作。基于国内首次往返式探空观测资料,首先建立了面向业务化应用的往返式探空资料质量控制方案,通过对比和分析质量控制前后观测样本的统计特征,论证了质量控制方案的合理性,质量控制后探测要素抽样分布更为合理,要素间一致性得到提高。进而以数值天气预报高时间分辨率的模式预报场和同站址业务常规探空观测资料为参考,分析质量控制后资料的不确定性,结果表明往返探空探测精度达到了世界气象组织WMO（World Meteorological Center）规定的突破目标,部分探测要素甚至实现了理想目标,探测资料具有可用性。最后结合数值模式背景场探讨往返探空资料的可同化性,研究表明往返探空的风场观测和夜间温度观测满足变分同化系统的高斯、无偏假定,可直接同化;气压、湿度和日间温度观测在资料同化前需要开展偏差订正工作,从而更有效的发挥资料价值。本文的研究工作为今后往返探空资料在模式中的同化应用奠定了基础。