An inexact fuzzy-chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming approach for flood diversion planning under multiple uncertainties

In this study, an inexact fuzzy-chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is developed for flood diversion planning under multiple uncertainties. A concept of the distribution with fuzzy boundary interval probability is defined to address multiple uncertainties expressed as integration of intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. IFCTIP integrates the inexact programming, two-stage stochastic programming, integer programming and fuzzy-stochastic programming within a general optimization framework. IFCTIP incorporates the pre-regulated water-diversion policies directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when the promised targets are violated. More importantly, it can facilitate dynamic programming for decisions of capacity-expansion planning under fuzzy-stochastic conditions. IFCTIP is applied to a flood management system. Solutions from IFCTIP provide desired flood diversion plans with a minimized system cost and a maximized safety level. The results indicate that reasonable solutions are generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision alternatives can be generated under different levels of flood flows.     

Planning water resources management systems using a fuzzy-boundary interval-stochastic programming method

In this study, a fuzzy-boundary interval-stochastic programming (FBISP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. The developed FBISP method can deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy-boundary intervals. With the aid of an interactive algorithm woven with a vertex analysis, solutions for FBISP model under associated α-cut levels can be generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels. The related probability and possibility information can also be reflected in the solutions for the objective function value and decision variables. The developed FBISP is also applied to water resources management and planning within a multi-reservoir system. Various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the pre-regulated water-allocation targets are violated are analyzed. The results obtained are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify desired water resources management policies under uncertainty.     

基于改进的数量化理论和RBF神经网络组合方法的地下水水质预测

文中首先运用了一种改进的数量化理论I模型作为预处理工具,对影响地下水水质的20个因子进行定性数据转换、数据降维,随后将8个重要特征因子作为RBF（径向基函数）神经网络模型的输入,进一步对监测井的采样数据进行学习、训练,揭示地下水污染质迁移转化规律。尝试用经过改进的数量化理论与RBF神经网络方法二者结合,对沈阳李官水源地研究区监测井地下水水质变化进行模拟与预测,其仿真结果覆盖了现有的绝大部分实测数据,适用范围广泛,具有一定的推广价值。     

数量化理论Ⅲ在瓦斯突出预测敏感地质指标筛选中的应用

论述了数量化理论及数量化理论Ⅲ的基本原理,提出了反应标度的概念和计算方法,扩展了原来反应取值的适用范围和科学性。以中马村矿区为研究实例,研究了影响煤与瓦斯突出的地质因素,并采用统计单元划分结合数量化理论Ⅲ的方法,从11个地质因素中筛选出8个瓦斯突出预测敏感地质指标,并据此对中马村矿已采区进行了瓦斯地质区划。实践表明:将数量化理论Ⅲ应用于瓦斯地质学是可行的,为瓦斯突出预测敏感地质指标的筛选提供了新的思路。     

在线地理信息服务质量评价研究

通过对评价平台各类服务的服务质量的指标体系和质量评价方法的研究,为各类在线服务进行科学合理的质量评价提供了依据。     

混源油气定量研究思路与方法

混源研究是油气成藏机理研究的重要内容,是油气勘探方向不可回避的现实问题.以东营凹陷为例,提出多数盆地都具备油气混源的必要条件,混源现象普遍存在但具有明显的非均质性.以塔中地区为例,指出烃类指标、同位素、包裹体等地球化学测试手段是识别混源油的重要途径.密度驱动混合作用和分子扩散是油气混合的重要机制,受油源、混合时间与隔层等多种因素的控制,不同油气藏具有不同的油气混合尺度.混源定量方法主要包括:应用烃类指标或参数进行的二端元、三端元线性与非线性混源定量法、碳同位素混源定量法、模拟实验法、排烃量计算物质平衡法.建立适用于多源混合、包含多项指标、采用更优化的混合定量数学模型如与高分辨率气相色谱指纹相结合的ANN神经网络数学模拟的混源定量计算,将有效提高混源定量精度.     

大数据与地质学的未来发展

地质学定量化是地质学自身发展臻于成熟的重要标志。地质学家们经过长期艰难的探索和尝试,扫清了许多障碍并取得了令人瞩目的进展,但并未越过定性描述和不确定性门槛。在人类进入信息化和大数据时代的今天,地质学家们发现并找到了越过定量化之门的捷径。在以大数据和数据密集型计算为基础的第四范式支配下,地质学家有可能突破各种主客观因素的限制,使地质学进入更全面的定量化发展阶段,并取得地质科学原理和规律方面的新发现。换言之,在地质信息学的引领和支撑下,地质学将在新世纪得到快速发展。地质学家需要逐步建立与第四范式相适应的新地质科学观,即以查找和揭示隐藏于大数据中的多种地质要素关联关系为主要目标,然后在此基础上追究成因关系。     

Random domain decomposition for flow in heterogeneous stratified aquifers

We study two-dimensional flow in a layered heterogeneous medium composed of two materials whose hydraulic properties and spatial distribution are known statistically but are otherwise uncertain. Our analysis relies on the composite media theory, which employs random domain decomposition in the context of groundwater flow moment equations to explicitly account for the separate effects of material and geometric uncertainty on ensemble moments of head and flux. Flow parallel and perpendicular to the layering in a two-material composite layered medium is considered. The hydraulic conductivity of each material is log-normally distributed with a much higher mean in one material than in the other. The hydraulic conductivities of points within different materials are uncorrelated. The location of the internal boundary between the two contrasting materials is random and normally distributed with given mean and variance. We solve the equations for (ensemble) moments of hydraulic head and flux and analyze the impact of unknown geometry of materials on statistical moments of head and flux. We compare the composite media approach to approximations that replace statistically inhomogeneous conductivity fields with pseudo-homogeneous random fields. This work was performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy (DOE): DOE/BES (Bureau of Energy Sciences) Program in the Applied Mathematical Sciences contract KC-07–01–01 and Los Alamos National Laboratory under LDRD 98604. This work made use of STC shared experimental facilities supported by the National Science Foundation under Agreement No. EAR-9876800. This work was supported in part by the European Commission under Contract No. EVK1-CT-1999–00041 (W-SAHaRA).     

中国早奥陶世岩相古地理

本文是中国早、中和晚寒武世岩相古地理诸文的继续[1-3]。在笔者等的华北地区、华南地区和西北地区寒武纪和奥陶纪定量岩相古地理研究及编图成果的基础上,结合其他地区的地质资料,编制出了中国早奥陶世早期和晚期岩相古地理图两幅,并撰写出本文。在华北地区,作图单位分早奥陶世早期和晚期,以冶里期和马家沟二期分别代表其早期和晚期。在华南地区,作图单位亦分早奥陶世早期和晚期,以新厂期和宁国期分别代表其早期和晚期。在西北地区和其他地区,作图单位均为早奥陶世,不分早期和晚期。华北地区、华南地区和西北地区研究程度较高,其岩相古地理图和相应的文字论述都是定量的和比较详细的。其他地区的研究程度较低,其岩相古地理图和文字论文都是定性的或概略性的。定量,即每个古地理单元的划分都有确切的定量资料和定量图件为依据。这种定量的岩相古地理图对石油、天然气以及其他矿产的预测和勘探最有用处。中国早奥陶世岩相古地理的基本格局仍和寒武纪各世的一样,是两槽和三台相间分布。两槽即天山北山蒙辽吉槽地和昆仑秦岭槽地,三台即准噶尔蒙兴台地、塔里木柴达木华北台地和西藏华南台地。这些古地理单元及其次级古地理单元的范围和特征,有些与晚寒武世或中及早寒武世的相同或基本上相同,有些则大不相同,这是由早奥陶世的大范围的海侵决定的。     

Uncertainty in differential settlements of bridge foundations and retaining walls

ABSTRACT

In the bridge design specifications of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) using the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) method, the loads and resulting force effects are given two-letter designations, e.g. “SE” for “force effects due to settlement”. The SE load factor is used to develop factored values of the induced force effects such as moments and shears in a bridge structure due to foundation movements. In 2018 AASHTO committees voted to adopt calibrated values of the SE load factors that account for the uncertainty in predicted foundation movements from different analytical methods. However, additional uncertainty can occur in the differential settlements. This paper explores the additional uncertainty in differential settlements of bridge foundations and retaining walls using the datasets for two analytical methods that were used by AASHTO to develop the SE load factors for foundation settlement. Normalised probability exceedance charts (NPECs), that integrate the concept of reliability index and data correlation, have been developed and their application in bridge and wall design process is discussed for a variety of scenarios. Guidance is provided for the practical implementation of differential settlement in bridge analysis through an example problem.