地震灾害损失预测中的不确定性研究回顾

本文概述了对象研究的不确定性类型、研究方法,着重描述了震害预测过程中存在的不确定性及其研究进展,目前应用于震害预测不确定性研究的主要方法,并对当前震害预测中存在的主要问题进行了初步总结与讨论。     

Quantifying uncertainty of the semivariogram of transmissivity of an existing groundwater monitoring network

A method is presented for quantifying the uncertainty of the semivariogram of transmissivity and determining the required number of measurements. In this method, the estimated semivariogram and its 95% confidence limits are first determined from a finite number of measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated semivariogram is then quantified using the random field simulation technique. For a given value of the quantitative index of uncertainty, the required number of measured data can finally be obtained. Actual transmissivity data of an existing groundwater monitoring network are used in the application of the proposed method. The required numbers of measurements of transmissivity for four different values of the quantitative index of uncertainty are provided, from which reliable semivariograms of the transmissivity can be obtained. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于数量化理论Ⅰ的水文地质点参数确定

分析了目前水文地质参数研究中存在的一些问题,尝试以抽水试验资料和一般勘探资料为基础,根据含水层岩性、含水层组的厚度、地层结构等因素对点参数确定的影响,采用数量化理论Ⅰ对区域水文地质参数进行研究,建立了含水层渗透系数和给水度数量化理论模型,结合西北典型干旱灌区地下水流进行实例模拟,取得了较好的应用效果。     

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下澜沧江流域极端降水的变化特征

澜沧江是我国为数不多的跨境河流,流域内多发暴雨、洪水灾害,因此定量、科学地评估澜沧江流域未来全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为澜沧江-湄公河沿线国家共同管理流域水资源和抵御自然灾害提供一定的科学指导。文中基于部门间影响模式比较计划（ISI-MIP）下5个全球气候模式降水数据,通过偏差校正增强其在澜沧江流域极端降水的模拟能力,使用降水强度、日最大降水量和强降水量等9个指标评价未来全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下澜沧江流域极端降水的变化情况,并对结果的不确定性和可信度进行研究,得出以下主要结论：随着全球温度的升高,澜沧江流域年降水和极端降水均呈现增大趋势,其中极强降水量（R99p）升幅最大,升温1.5℃和2.0℃下升幅分别为37%和75%;相对于基准期,全球升温2.0℃下各极端降水指数增幅明显大于升温1.5℃,前者升幅甚至超出后者一倍;未来全球升温情景下,澜沧江流域湿季会变得更湿润,而干季则会更干燥;澜沧江流域降水集中程度会增大,使得流域内洪涝灾害发生的风险增大;ISI-MIP气候模式对澜沧江流域未来极端降水模拟存在较大不确定性,升温2.0℃较升温1.5℃情景下不确定性更大,但相对于基准期,前者极端降水增大的可信度更高。     

矿田构造的研究历史、现状与发展

矿田构造是指在矿田范围内,控制矿床的形成和分布的地质构造因素的总和。在矿田构造和矿床构造的含义中,既包括构造形迹和岩石组构特征,又包括控矿构造的形成机制和发展历史。近10几年来的矿田矿床研究不仅强调构造对于矿体的形态、分布和组合的控制作用,也深入于构造作用对成岩成矿过程的研究。综合分析了矿田构造研究的研究历史、研究内容、研究现状与问题,对矿田构造与找矿研究的发展方向进行了展望。     

Navigating a complex policy system—Explaining local divergences in Swedish fish stocking policy

Swedish fish stocking policy constitutes an example of the disparate challenges associated with adaptive management theory and the realization thereof. The vast substantial and institutional uncertainties of the policy subsystem have previously been identified as variables that complicate the realization of adaptive policy making. The aim of this paper is to address and tentatively explain differences in regards to how these uncertainties are handled. What regional variances in Swedish fish stocking policy can be distinguished and how can these variations be explained? The empirical analysis shows that Swedish fish stocking policy consists of a wide array of different regional policies. These regional variations are explained by differences in existing implementation resources, policy beliefs and readings of formal regulations. Policy makers can decrease these divergences in two ways; they can either change formal regulations or influence available implementation resources. Both management approaches might have positive as well as negative effects on the subsystem's adaptability.     

《风云二号》静止气象卫星

《风云二号》静止气象卫星１９９７年６月１０日２０点０１分,从我国西昌卫星发射中心,由长征三号运载火箭成功地将我国自己研制的《风云二号》静止气象卫星发射入轨（封面）。６月１７日,《风云二号》卫星成功地定点在东经１０５°赤道上空。６月２１日１４时０１分,...     

Scepticism and uncertainty about climate change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time

While scientific consensus and political and media messages appear to be increasingly certain, public attitudes and action towards the issue do not appear to be following suit. Popular and academic debate often assumes this is due to ignorance or misunderstanding on the part of the public, but some studies have suggested political beliefs and values may play a more important role in determining belief versus scepticism about climate change. The current research used two representative postal surveys of the UK public to: measure scepticism and uncertainty about climate change; determine how scepticism varies according to individual characteristics, knowledge and values; and examine how scepticism has changed over time. Findings show denial of climate change is less common than the perception that the issue has been exaggerated. Scepticism was found to be strongly determined by individuals’ environmental and political values (and indirectly by age, gender, location and lifestyle) rather than by education or knowledge. Between 2003 and 2008, public uncertainty about climate change has remained remarkably constant, although belief that claims about the issue are exaggerated has doubled over that period. These results are interpreted with reference to psychological concepts of motivated reasoning, confirmation bias and ‘finite pool of worry’. Implications for communication and policy are discussed.     

Reduced complexity models for probabilistic forecasting of infiltration rates

Soil heterogeneity and data sparsity combine to render estimates of infiltration rates uncertain. We develop reduced complexity models for the probabilistic forecasting of infiltration rates in heterogeneous soils during surface runoff and/or flooding events. These models yield closed-form semi-analytical expressions for the single- and multi-point infiltration-rate PDFs (probability density functions), which quantify predictive uncertainty stemming from uncertainty in soil properties. These solutions enable us to investigate the relative importance of uncertainty in various hydraulic parameters and the effects of their cross-correlation. At early times, the infiltration-rate PDFs computed with the reduced complexity models are in close agreement with their counterparts obtained from a full infiltration model based on the Richards equation. At all times, the reduced complexity models provide conservative estimates of predictive uncertainty.     

青藏高原区M_S-L回归关系式的不确定性分析

本文收集了青藏高原区7级以上以走滑为主的30个地震的地表破裂参数资料,拟合出了青藏高原区新的震级与破裂带长度统计关系式,并结合前人的统计关系式,分别通过破裂带长度估算震级,求出了估算震级与仪器震级的差值。同时将差值为正值(即估算震级偏大)的归为一类,差值为负值(估算震级偏小)的归为另一类,做了分析和对比。研究发现,差值为正值的地震所处的走滑断裂带一般位于一级块体或次级块体的边界断裂带上;差值为负值的地震所处的走滑断裂带大多位于一级块体或次级块体内部断裂带或断裂带的交汇处。基于上述分类的差异,作者对不同回归关系计算的差值数据进行了统计分析,分别给出了修正计算结果不确定性的参考值,为降低估算震级的不确定性提供了理论依据。