近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究

基于118站探空资料研究了近60年中国850—100 hPa气温变化趋势及季节和区域特征,并通过与1979—2017年卫星微波气温的对比研究了中国探空气温均一化的不确定性。研究表明,1958—2017年中国平均对流层气温呈上升趋势,300 hPa升温最为显著,平流层下层（100 hPa）为降温趋势。冬季对流层上层升温趋势和夏季平流层下层降温趋势较强。1979—2017年较整个时段对流层升温趋势较强,平流层下层降温趋势较弱。青藏高原和西北地区对流层上层升温趋势较强。通过与卫星微波气温和邻近探空站探空气温的对比以及均一化前后日夜气温差值检测出中国探空均一化气温仍残存非均一性问题。由于参照序列的局限性,均一化未能完全去除21世纪最初10年中国探空系统变化造成的对流层中、上层至平流层下层气温系统性下降的影响,导致中国对流层上层升温趋势被低估和平流层下层降温趋势被高估。未来可通过参考卫星微波气温和邻近探空站序列调整非均一性订正顺序并增加合理性检验等方法改进中国探空气温均一化方案。      

基于"承载复合体"的隧道位移反分析研究

初期支护与松动圈围岩的协调作用表现出很大的不确定性,其主要影响因素包括:初期支护施工本身导致初期支护的不均匀性,实际围岩的不确定性对初期支护的影响,围岩释放应力的不均匀性导致的初期支护内力分布的不确定性。文章把初期支护的支护和围岩自身自稳能力看成是双介质的承载复合体,采用最小二乘法建立目标函数,结合单纯形算法,进行初期支护与扰动区的联合位移反分析,充分揭示了初期支护与围岩松动圈之间的协调作用;结合实际工程与不考虑初期支护不确定性因素影响的反演分析进行对比,结果显示本文方法反演精度提高39％,预测精度提高了13％。     

基于灰色模糊模型的塔山煤矿构造复杂程度定量评价

为实现大同煤田塔山煤矿构造复杂程度的定性-定量综合分析和分区评价,本次研究充分收集研究区钻孔实测数据和井田详查和勘探阶段的区调资料,以及各煤层采掘工程平面图,统计了研究区近百条褶皱和断裂构造产状、落差和延伸长度等参数,绘制了研究区构造纲要图.厘定了断层密度、断层强度、断层影响指数和褶皱的平面变形系数4个构造评价指标,应...     

中国晚奥陶世岩相古地理

本文是笔者等的中国早、中、晚寒武世和早、中奥陶世岩相古地理诸文的继续。在对华北地区、华南地区和西北地区寒武纪和奥陶纪定量岩相古地理研究及编图成果的基础上,结合其他地区（主要是蒙兴地区、昆仑秦岭地区、西藏地区、海南岛和台湾地区）的地质资料,编制出了中国晚奥陶世岩相古地理图,并撰写出本文。华北地区、华南地区和西北地区的研究程度较高,其岩相古地理图和文字论述都是定量的。其他地区的研究程度较低,其岩相古地理图和文字论述则是定性的或概略性的。在中国晚奥陶世,早、中、晚寒武世和早、中奥陶世一直存在的“两槽和三台相间分布”的岩相古地理基本格局已经改变,天山北山蒙辽吉槽地中的北山槽地和蒙辽吉槽地已不再是槽地而变成了台地。因此,准噶尔台地、北山台地、蒙兴台地、蒙辽吉台地和华北台地就连在一起了,形成了一个庞大的北方台地群。这是一个重大变化。其他古地理单元也与以前各世的大不相同或有所不同。这是晚奥陶世晚期大规模海退的结果。     

The Preparation and Preliminary Characterisation of Three Synthetic Andesite Reference Glass Materials (ARM‐1, ARM‐2, ARM‐3) for In Situ Microanalysis

Three synthetic reference glasses were prepared by directly fusing and stirring 3.8 kg of high‐purity oxide powders to provide reference materials for microanalytical work. These glasses have andesitic major compositions and are doped with fifty‐four trace elements in nearly identical abundance (500, 50, 5 µg g^?1) using oxide powders or element solutions, and are named ARM‐1, 2 and 3, respectively. We further document that sector‐field (SF) ICP‐MS (Element 2 or Element XR) is capable of sweeping seventy‐seven isotopes (from ⁷Li to ²³⁸U, a total of sixty‐eight elements) in 1 s and, thus, is able to quantify up to sixty‐eight elements by laser sampling. Micro‐ and bulk analyses indicate that the glasses are homogeneous with respect to major and trace elements. This paper provides preliminary data for the ARM glasses using a variety of analytical techniques (EPMA, XRF, ICP‐OES, ICP‐MS, LA‐Q‐ICP‐MS and LA‐SF‐ICP‐MS) performed in ten laboratories. Discrepancies in the data of V, Cr, Ni and Tl exist, mainly caused by analytical limitations. Preliminary reference and information values for fifty‐six elements were calculated with uncertainties [2 relative standard error (RSE)] estimated in the range of 1–20%.     

基于街景影像的城市道路空间舒适度研究

城市道路空间舒适度是综合刻画城市道路环境的量化指标之一,可为城市道路规划建设、城市交通优化、城市环境评估等提供参考.本文以街景影像为基础数据,从空间视角阐述了城市道路空间舒适度内涵,构建了城市道路空间舒适度量化指标,建立了以语义分割和等距采样为基础的城市道路空间舒适度测度方法和空间插值方法,最后以南京市局部城区为样区进...     

深海生物原位实验与生态监测研究进展

深海在黑暗、高静水压、低温(黑烟囱等热液系统除外)和寡营养的极端环境下形成了特殊的生境。对深海生物/微生物的研究,不仅可以揭示各种深海生物的生理代谢特性和动态变化规律,而且有助于深海生物资源的开发利用,特别是深海微生物碳循环机制的相关研究可为全球实现碳中和目标提供新的路线图。研究深海生物的首要条件是获得大量保持原位特性的样本,然而传统深海采样手段的局限可能导致深海相关研究结果无法反映深海环境下真实的生命过程,亟需发展满足深海生物原位研究的采样方法和生态监测技术。本文对深海生物研究现状,相关科学问题和原位组学研究进展,以及原位生态监测装备研发和应用进行综述,并对深海原位生物实验室进行了展望。     

SPOT地面场定标与星上定标结果的比较分析

本文研究是在遥感辐射定标场选择的基础。利用６Ｓ大气辐射传输模型进行ＳＰＯＴ遥感数据的定标和地物的光谱反射率反演,即在遥感器飞越辐射定标场上空,在定标场选择若干像元区,测量遥感器对应的各波段地物的光谱反射率和大气光谱参量,并利用大气辐射传输模型给出遥感器人瞳处各光谱带的辐射亮度,最后确定它与遥感器对应输出的数字量化的数量关系,求解定标系数。然后,对相应的研究训练区的遥感数据进行大气辐射校正,进而反演训练区内的地物光谱反射率。最后,通过将反演值与实地测量的地物光谱反射率进行对比分析,来估算定标不确定度,并比较说明两种不同方式定标差异及优势和限制。     

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT FORMULAS

ＵＮＣＥＲＴＡＩＮＴＹＡＮＤＳＥＮＳＩＴＩＶＩＴＹＡＮＡＬＹＳＥＳＯＦＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＴＲＡＮＳＰＯＲＴＦＯＲＭＵＬＡＳＫｅｈＣｈｉａＹＥＨ１ａｎｄＳｅｎＬｏｎｇＤＥＮＧ２ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｎｖｉｅｗｏｆｔｈｅｒａｎｄｏｍｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔ...     

Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling

Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA). Based on the form of available information, fuzzy set theory, probability theory, or a combination of both can be used to incorporate parameter uncertainty and variability into mechanistic risk assessment models. In this study, tap water concentration is used as the source of contamination in the human exposure model. Ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are considered as multiple exposure pathways. The tap water concentration of the contaminant and cancer potency factors for ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are treated as fuzzy variables while the remaining model parameters are treated using probability density functions. Combined utilization of fuzzy and random variables produces membership functions of risk to individuals at different fractiles of risk as well as probability distributions of risk for various alpha-cut levels of the membership function. The proposed method provides a robust approach in evaluating human health risk to exposure when there is both uncertainty and variability in model parameters. PFRA allows utilization of certain types of information which have not been used directly in existing risk assessment methods.