轮南低凸起气洗作用响应及定量评价

自喜山期, 过量干气自东向西对轮南低凸起原始油藏的大规模侵入、冲刷, 诱发本区持续性气洗分馏作用的发生.在各组分气液溶解平衡的格架下, 气洗作用将导致残余油中正构烷烃的大量损失以及次生凝析气藏的形成.地球化学研究表明, 残余油与凝析油中轻烃组分(C₆-C₈) 的变化趋势具有典型的气洗分馏特征.同时, 基于气洗作用模型, 通过对各层系原油正构烷烃相对蒸发量(Q) 的计算, 定量描述了轮南地区气洗作用的强度.计算结果显示, 奥陶系的油气藏曾遭受强烈的气洗作用, 原油中正构烷烃的相对蒸发量由东向西表现出依次递减的特征.其中, 轮古东地区Q值高达97%;位于轮南低凸起中部的轮古2井以及轮古18井地区, 正构烷烃相对蒸发量较小(Q=20%~76%); 而在更加靠近西部的轮古17及轮古100井, 其原油中正构烷烃分布正常(Q=0), 并未发生气洗分馏作用.另一方面, 石炭系以及三叠系的油气藏均表现出未遭受气洗作用的特征, 证实了喜山期大量干气的优势运移通道被限制于海西早期运动所形成的奥陶系岩溶缝洞体系中的事实.因此, 奥陶系, 尤其是位于临近气源区的轮古东地区, 是轮南地区气藏的有利靶区.      

翡翠评估价的量化探索

由于翡翠评估本身具有现实性、市场性、预测性等特性,传统的评估方法过于依赖评估人员的经验,主观随意性大,难以保证评估结果的客观、科学、公正。针对翡翠价格与其质量因素之间的复杂、不确定关系的特性,我们提出利用特尔斐法来判定各权重之间关系,从而利用数学模型计算出各质量因素之间的权重,以减少由于评估人员主观因素造成评估结果的偏差,使评估人员运用此方法能够迅速、准确、公正的对翡翠估价前期的数据进行量化处理。     

Fluid flow dynamics under location uncertainty

We present a derivation of a stochastic model of Navier Stokes equations that relies on a decomposition of the velocity fields into a differentiable drift component and a time uncorrelated uncertainty random term. This type of decomposition is reminiscent in spirit to the classical Reynolds decomposition. However, the random velocity fluctuations considered here are not differentiable with respect to time, and they must be handled through stochastic calculus. The dynamics associated with the differentiable drift component is derived from a stochastic version of the Reynolds transport theorem. It includes in its general form an uncertainty dependent subgrid bulk formula that cannot be immediately related to the usual Boussinesq eddy viscosity assumption constructed from thermal molecular agitation analogy. This formulation, emerging from uncertainties on the fluid parcels location, explains with another viewpoint some subgrid eddy diffusion models currently used in computational fluid dynamics or in geophysical sciences and paves the way for new large-scales flow modeling. We finally describe an applications of our formalism to the derivation of stochastic versions of the Shallow water equations or to the definition of reduced order dynamical systems.     

Sensitivity Evaluation of Snow Simulation to Multi-parameterization Schemes in the Noah-MP Model

On account of the latest community Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) schemes and its uncertainty breadth in simulation results being difficult to be determined, this study assessed the sensitivity of snow to physics options using meteorological data from the Altay Station in northern Xinjiang. The Noah-MP physics ensemble simulation with the total number of 13 824 was designed without the consideration of the uncertainties of forcing data and parameters. The natural selection approach was used to analyze the sensitivity of physical processes. Based on the results of sensitivity analysis, the uncertainty of ensemble simulation results was further discussed. The results showed that snow was sensitive to the physical processes of surface-layer exchange coefficient, partitioning precipitation into rainfall and snowfall, lower boundary condition of soil temperature, and first-layer snow or soil temperature time scheme; Uncertainties in multi-parameterization ensemble simulation experiments were mainly from sensitive physical processes under the condition of disregarding uncertainties of forcing data and parameters. After removing the parameterization schemes that notably reduced simulation performance in sensitive physical processes, the uncertainty breadth in ensemble simulations decreased significantly. Finally, an optimal combination group of parameterization schemes for this station was configured.     

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapá State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese.     

以赛促学,构建面向“地形测量实习”全过程的定量化考核体系

针对“地形测量实习”课程考核存在的问题,构建了“过程化、定量化”的考核体系,以考核学生的实践动手能力为重点优化考核内容,形成了贯穿于实践教学全过程的、多样化的考核方法,制定了定量化的成绩评定标准,课程考核由终结性评价向形成性评价转变。该考核体系引导学生由被动学习转变为主动学习,能够切实加强学生实践能力培养,进而完善测绘学科在工程教育专业认证环境下的人才培养模式。     

Review on Validation of Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important input parameter for many land surface models. Retrieving LST from remote sensing is the main approach for modelling the radiance balance and energy budget at both regional and global scales. Validation of remotely sensed LST is helpful to evaluate its accuracy and stability. Furthermore, it is meaningful for the retrieval and application of remotely sensed LST. Here, first, theories and methods of LST retrieval were reviewed. Second, four validation methods, including the Temperature-based (T-based), Radiance-based (R-based), cross comparison and Time-series analysis, were reviewed and compared. An in-depth examination was conducted for the T-based method from the aspects including the approaches for acquiring the ground truth value, the target LST products, the uncertainty sources. Finally, some important issues in LST validation were discussed.     

基于邻域扩展量化法的城市边界识别

城市空间分析的基本条件是可靠的测度,而城市的基本测度是规模。客观定义城市边界是有效确定城市规模的技术前提。近年来国内外学者提出几种城市边界识别的方法,其中能够定量反映城市内部实体空间组织关系的多采用矢量图像。但这些矢量数据的获取十分困难,且实时性差。因此,本文借鉴前人的研究成果,基于邻域扩展量化和标度思想,提出一种应用于遥感栅格图像上的城市边界识别方法。该方法的本质是一种空间邻域融合法,通过改变像元邻域的作用范围,可以得到不同的空间集群数目;借助搜索范围与集群数目的标度关系确定一个客观的半径,据此可以利用GIS技术确定城市边界。将该方法应用于北京地区多个年份的遥感图像,发现了像元的有效邻域作用范围。此方法以栅格图像为基础,数据实时性好并且获取容易,计算过程简便,在未来的城市边界研究过程中,可望与现有的方法相互补充。     

GIS中线元位置不确定性的随机过程模型

本文基于随机过程理论导出了随机线元的分布函数和分布密度表达式,定义子不确定性信息矩阵,引入了广义误差带概念,进而从理论上概括和统一了前人提出了的ε－带和ｅ－带模型。     

Probabilistic assessment for seismic performance of port structures

Past experience has shown that ports are often susceptible to severe damage during earthquakes. From field damage data of 1995 Kobe earthquake, it is observed that the seismic behavior of port structures shows significant variability. In this study, a 2D numerical model, representing PC1 berth located in Port Island, Kobe and damaged in the 1995 Kobe earthquake, has been developed and used to simulate seismic behavior. It has been found that the uncertainties in the friction angle and the shear modulus of reclaimed soil contribute most to the variability of the residual horizontal displacement (RHD) response of the quay wall of port structures. To investigate the propagation of uncertainties of soil–structure system to the quay wall, a tornado diagram and a first-order second-moment analysis are used. Uncertainty of ground motions has also been investigated. Based on the results, design considerations have been provided.