长--平陆相红色盆地北东段量化沉积学特征及其演化

长－平陆相红色盆地北东段（系指赣西北红层分布区）由三期5个冲积扇体组成。非同期扇体分别由特定界面所分隔。山口位于盆地北侧,古流向由北向南、南东或南西呈扇形撒开;最大砾石平均体积及混杂系数在扇根处为最大值,向扇中、扇缘呈非线性递减;砾石成分严格受物源区的制约。根据量化沉积学特征及成生背景分析,该区大致经历了初始孕育期、分段剥蚀充填期及后期构造改造三大演化阶段。洪积事件始于晚白垩世、止于早第三纪始新世-渐新世。     

1976年云南龙陵7．4级地震序列分析

地震成核是地震孕育过程中的一个至关重要的阶段，加速是成核过程的一个属性，也是地震失稳破裂的一个必要条件．地震加速释放是成核在脆性层中的大地震的普遍前兆，且可将该加速过程简要地概括为地震释放速率正比于失稳破裂剩余时间的负幂．基于这一原理，对１９７６年５月２９日云南龙陵Ｍ_ｓ７．４级地震序列进行回顾性分析，表明主震及后续显著地震的失稳破裂时间和震级可成功地被估算，但要求所测系数ｒ^２     

UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICATION OF SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS: A STUDY OF PREDICTION ERRORS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER

The effects of uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics on simulated atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes and structure were investigated using a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-boundary layer model. Observational data from the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment were selected to quantify prediction errors in simulated boundary-layer parameters. Several numerical 12-hour simulations were performed to simulate the convective boundary-layer structure, starting at 0700 LT 6 June 1987.In the control simulation, measured surface parameters and atmospheric data were used to simulate observed boundary-layer processes. In the remaining simulations, five surface parameters – soil texture, initial soil moisture, minimum stomatal resistance, leaf area index, and vegetation cover – were varied systematically to study how uncertainty in the specification of these surface parameters affects simulated boundary-layer processes.The simulated uncertainty in the specification of these five surface parameters resulted in a wide range of errors in the prediction of turbulent fluxes, mean thermodynamic structure, and the depth of the ABL. Under certain conditions uncertainty in the specifications of soil texture and minimum stomatal resistance had the greatest influence on the boundary-layer structure. A lesser but still moderately strong effect on the simulated ABL resulted from (1) a small decrease (4%) in the observed initial soil moisture (although a large increase [40%] had only a marginal effect), and (2) a large reduction (66%) in the observed vegetation cover. High uncertainty in the specification of leaf area index had only a marginal impact on the simulated ABL. It was also found that the variations in these five surface parameters had a negligible effect on the simulated horizontal wind fields. On the other hand, these variations had a significant effect on the vertical distribution of turbulent heat fluxes, and on the predicted maximum boundary-layer depth, which varied from about 1400–2300 m across the 11 simulations. Thus, uncertainties in the specification of surface parameters can significantly affect the simulated boundary-layer structure in terms of meteorological and air quality model predictions.     

油气散失定量研究方法及其在准噶尔盆地的应用

首先将油气散失类型分为油气运移过程中的散失和油气成藏后的散失2大类，并分别进行了讨论．在详细分析研究资料的基础上，对油气散失的6种主要途径和机理进行了描述，建立了5种相关的油气散失地质模型和数学模型，介绍了准噶尔盆地油气散失的定量计算方法，其中对天然气扩散作用造成的散失量计算模型展开了深入的讨论．在此基础上，对准噶尔盆地油气散失的研究提出了相关建议．     

塔里木盆地中央隆起带下奥陶统构造调整定量研究及其对油气成藏的影响

构造调整对油气藏起着重要的控制作用。采用定量方法研究构造调整强度及其对油气形成与调整的影响是对成藏研究定量化的有益探索。下奥陶统地层是塔里木中央隆起带的重要储层,具有统一的原始构造和沉积环境,而后期构造调整相差巨大,最终形成了塔中和巴楚地区在成藏及含油气性上的巨大差别,塔中为加里东晚期形成的古隆起,后期构造稳定,变动小;巴楚隆起经历了多期的构造变革和改造,一直到喜山期才最终定型。构造调整控制了烃源岩的发育和油气运移的方向,制约着油气藏的形成与改造,并最终决定了油气藏在时空上的分布。塔中隆起从加里东期开始到喜山期发生继承性成藏,油气兼聚,圈闭的发育制约油气藏的发现;巴楚则多为晚期成藏,聚气为主,喜山期形成的气藏是巴楚地区勘探的首选目标。     

Uncertainties of geochemical codes and thermodynamic databases for predicting the impact of carbon dioxide on geologic formations

Numerical codes are applied to calculate chemical reactions following geologic carbon sequestration in deep formations and CO₂ leakage in shallow formations. However, using different thermodynamic databases generates variations in the simulation results, which are referred to as the model uncertainty. The PHREEQC and The Geochemist's Workbench codes were used to simulate anorthite dissolution for storage, retention, transfer, and near-surface formation waters in the respective geological units. For each of the formation waters, a simple one-dimensional scenario was simulated using eight different thermodynamic databases. Groundwaters in shallow aquifers commonly exhibit low ionic strengths (<0.5 mol/kgw) and low temperatures, whereas storage formation waters are characterized by high ionic strength (>1.0 mol/kgw) and high temperatures. In storage formations, mineral trapping is the most efficient process for long-term CO₂ storage. However, with respect to the geological formations and the time needed for anorthite dissolution, the model uncertainties associated with using different combinations of numerical codes and thermodynamic databases were largest (∼90%) for the storage formation waters at 58 °C and I = 6.5 mol/l. Conversely, in near-surface formation waters, the model uncertainty was less than 1%. Due to CO₂ dissolution, the calculated pH of the formation waters decreased to a range between pH 4.0 and 5.5. In this pH range, the dissolution mechanism of anorthite switches from the slow neutral mechanism to the faster acid mechanism, causing dissolution time length variations. The calculated pH variation further increased with rising ionic strength. A detailed examination of the reasons revealed the activity coefficient calculation method of the main aquatic species to have the largest impact on the simulated model results. The calculation method of the CO₂ activity coefficient had the second largest impact. Via calibration with the experimental data, a specific thermodynamic database can be chosen to represent these experimental results. However, the calibration of thermodynamic databases is not possible for all potential reactions in more complex geological systems at large ranges of temperature, ionic strength and pressure conditions. The uncertainties associated with using thermodynamic databases quantified in this study for CO₂ storage systems will therefore persist independently from previously conducted calibrations of thermodynamic databases with experimental or field data. In view of these model uncertainties, the modeller is encouraged to include a routine in the simulations for quantification of the model uncertainty depending on the specific scenario or to assess the simulation results as a range of values that represent a soft outcome.     

道路勘测设计实践环节批量量化考核方法

目前各高校在道路勘测设计实践环节多采用基于团队作业的考核方法,即小组打分法.受限于教学资源,教师利用该方法难以根据学生的个人能力给出公正客观的成绩.为避免片面、主观的考评现状,发挥团队作业的教学优势,提出了批量量化的考核方法,并详细介绍了其设计思路,以期在师生比偏小的现状下提高实践教学的质量、增加学生的积极性和参与度、...     

Toward accountable land use mapping: Using geocomputation to improve classification accuracy and reveal uncertainty

The classification of satellite imagery into land use/cover maps is a major challenge in the field of remote sensing. This research aimed at improving the classification accuracy while also revealing uncertain areas by employing a geocomputational approach. We computed numerous land use maps by considering both image texture and band ratio information in the classification procedure. For each land use class, those classifications with the highest class-accuracy were selected and combined into class-probability maps. By selecting the land use class with highest probability for each pixel, we created a hard classification. We stored the corresponding class probabilities in a separate map, indicating the spatial uncertainty in the hard classification. By combining the uncertainty map and the hard classification we created a probability-based land use map, containing spatial estimates of the uncertainty. The technique was tested for both ASTER and Landsat 5 satellite imagery of Gorizia, Italy, and resulted in a 34% and 31% increase, respectively, in the kappa coefficient of classification accuracy. We believe that geocomputational classification methods can be used generally to improve land use and land cover classification from imagery, and to help incorporate classification uncertainty into the resultant map themes.     

户外风测量设备检测方法研究

进行户外风测量设备的检测是保证安全生产与获得准确的气象观测数据的前提。通过测量标准对户外风测量设备的测量数据进行实时比测,规定检测环境条件、检测项目、检测方法,剔除异常值,以减小数据采集不同步造成的不确定度分量,得到户外风测量设备的检测结果。对检测结果的不确定度进行分析评定,对户外风测量设备的性能进行评价。     

场地地震反应分析中的不确定性及其处理方法

系统地研究了场地地震反应分析中的不确定性及其产生的根源．利用蒙特卡洛法的有关理论,对影响场地地震反应分析结果的不确定性因素进行了估计与分析．实际应用结果表明,该方法是可行的,而且精度较高