Quantitative estimation of petroleum prospect outcome probabilities: an overview of procedures

Estimation of prospect outcome probabilities in numerical form should be a central objective for petroleum geologists. Most numerical estimates of outcome probabilities represent subjective guesses. While the effectiveness of subjective procedures is difficult to gauge, several postmortem analyses suggest that subjective procedures are ineffective. Objective procedures for estimating outcome probabilities should yield much improved estimates. Objective procedures require that geological, geophysical and production data be organized so that geological and geophysical characteristics of prospects interpreted before they were drilled can be compared systematically with outcomes of prospects after they have been drilled. An example application that involves well data and an example application that involves seismic data demonstrate that objective procedures are simple in principle, but require organization of information in a form suitable for computation of frequencies, on which objective estimates of probabilities can be based.     

“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

This article analyses lay understandings of climate change elicited through a longitudinal population-based survey of climate change, place and community among 1162 residents in the Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia. We explore how older residents in contrasting rural and coastal geographic areas perceive climate change information in terms of culturally relevant meanings and values, lived experiences and emotional responses to seasonal cycles, temperature fluctuations and altered landscapes. Thematic analysis of comments given by 467 interviewees to an open-ended question identified a significant subset for whom the concepts of “nature” and “science” express competing views about changing climatic conditions. For them, the idea of “natural cycles” is a significant cultural construct that links nature and humans through time in a way that structures stable and resilient understandings of environmental change, drawing on established cosmological frameworks for contemplating the future in relation to the past. In contrast to other studies that postulate scepticism and denial as individuals’ fear management strategies in the face of climate change threat, we found that the natural cycles view is founded on a reassuring deeper conviction about how nature works, and is linked to other pro-environmental values not commonly found in sceptical groups. It is a paradox of natural cycles thinking that it rejects the anthropocentrism that is at the heart of science-based environmentalism. By contrast, it places humans as deeply integrated with nature, rather than operating outside it and attempting with uncertain science to control something that is ultimately uncontrollable.     

Quantification of Water Content and Speciation in Synthetic Rhyolitic Glasses: Optimising the Analytical Method of Confocal Raman Spectrometry

Quantification of water content in silicate glasses is of vital significance in understanding magma evolution and metamorphic anataxis. Here we provide a method for the determination of total dissolved water content and water speciation in silicate melts by confocal laser Raman spectrometry based on a set of hydrous rhyolitic glasses. A series of alumino-silicate glasses with water contents from 0.33 to 9.05% m/m were synthesised in a piston cylinder apparatus. Synchrotron-FTIR mapping shows that these glasses have relatively homogeneous distributions of dissolved water. Total water contents of the glasses were precisely measured by TC/EA-MS and FTIR. Both external and internal calibration were established for the quantitative analysis of water content and water speciation in the silicate glasses based on excellent linear correlation between total dissolved water content and integrated area of the water Raman band. Furthermore, by decomposing the total water Raman bands into four Gaussians components, the relative concentration of water speciation (OH groups and molecules H₂O_m) dissolved in the glasses was determined with a similar trend to water speciation data derived from FTIR. We suggest that the relative concentration of water speciation can be estimated in rhyolitic glasses with 4–8% m/m H₂O. Our work provides an accurate method to determine total water content and a potential tool to limit the relative concentration of water speciation dissolved in silicic glasses.     

A comparison of permafrost prediction models along a section of Trail Ridge Road, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

The distribution of mountain permafrost along Trail Ridge Road (TRR) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, was modeled using ‘frost numbers’ and a ‘temperature of permafrost model’ (TTOP) in order to assess the accuracy of prediction models. The TTOP model is based on regional observations of air temperature and heat transfer functions involving vegetation, soil, and snow; whereas the frost number model is based on site-specific ratios of ground temperature measurements of frozen and thawed degree-days. Thirty HOBO© temperature data loggers were installed near the surface as well as at depth (30 to 85 cm). From mid-July 2008 to 2010, the mean annual soil temperature (MAST) for all surface sites was − 1.5 °C. Frost numbers averaged 0.56; TTOP averaged − 1.8 °C. The MAST was colder on western-facing slopes at high elevations. Surface and deeper probes had similar MASTs; however, deeper probes had less daily and seasonal variation. Another model developed at the regional scale based on proxy indicators of permafrost (rock glaciers and land cover) classified 5.1 km² of permafrost within the study area, whereas co-kriging interpolations of frost numbers and TTOP data indicated 2.0 km² and 4.6 km² of permafrost, respectively. Only 0.8 km² were common among all three models. Three boreholes drilled within 2 m of TRR indicate that permafrost does not exist at these locations despite each borehole being classified as containing permafrost by at least one model. Addressing model uncertainty is important because nutrients stored within frozen or frost-affected soils can be released and impact alpine water bodies. The uncertainty also exposes two fundamental problems: empirical models designed for high latitudes are not necessarily applicable to mountain permafrost, and the presence of mountain permafrost in the alpine tundra of the Colorado Front Range has not been validated.     

山体效应及其对林线分布的影响(英文)

The concept of mass elevation effect(massenerhebungseffect,MEE) was intro-duced by A.de Quervain about 100 years ago to account for the observed tendency for temperature-related parameters such as tree line and snowline to occur at higher elevations in the central Alps than on their outer margins.It also has been widely observed in other ar-eas of the world,but there have not been significant,let alone quantitative,researches on this phenomenon.Especially,it has been usually completely neglected in developing fitting mod-els of timberline elevation,with only longitude or latitude considered as impacting factors.This paper tries to quantify the contribution of MEE to timberline elevation.Considering that the more extensive the land mass and especially the higher the mountain base in the interior of land mass,the greater the mass elevation effect,this paper takes mountain base elevation(MBE) as the magnitude of MEE.We collect 157 data points of timberline elevation,and use their latitude,longitude and MBE as independent variables to build a multiple linear regres-sion equation for timberline elevation in the southeastern Eurasian continent.The results turn out that the contribution of latitude,longitude and MBE to timberline altitude reach 25.11%,29.43%,and 45.46%,respectively.North of northern latitude 32°,the three factors’ contribu-tion amount to 48.50%,24.04%,and 27.46%,respectively;to the south,their contribution is 13.01%,48.33%,and 38.66%,respectively.This means that MBE,serving as a proxy indi-cator of MEE,is a significant factor determining the elevation of alpine timberline.Compared with other factors,it is more stable and independent in affecting timberline elevation.Of course,the magnitude of the actual MEE is certainly determined by other factors,including mountain area and height,the distance to the edge of a land mass,the structures of the mountains nearby.These factors need to be included in the study of MEE quantification in the future.This paper could help build up a high-accuracy and multi-scale elevation model for alpine timberline and even other altitudinal belts.     

Estimating actual rainfall from satellite rainfall products

The lack of uncertainty measures in operational satellite rainfall (SR) products leads to a situation where users of the SR products know that there are significant errors in the products, but they have no quantitative information about the distribution of these errors. The authors propose a semiparametric model to characterize the conditional distribution of actual rainfall (AR) given measures from SR products. The model consists of two components: a conditional gamma density given each SR, and a smooth functional relationship between the gamma parameters and SR. The model is developed for monthly rainfall, estimated from a satellite with sampling frequency once a day, averaged over an area of 512 × 512 km² in the Mississippi River basin. The conditional distribution results are more informative than deterministic SR products since the whole conditional distribution enables users to take appropriate actions according to their own risk assessments and cost/benefit analyses.     

Key reactions in the photochemistry of hydrocarbons in Neptune's stratosphere

We studied the propagation of uncertainties carried by the reaction rate coefficients in the photochemistry of Neptune's stratosphere. We showed that the uncertainties on the mole fractions of main hydrocarbons are equal to or larger than the estimated uncertainties on abundances gathered from observations. From a global sensitivity analysis study, we determined a list of 26 key reactions and discussed the 7 main key reactions that should be studied in priority to lower the uncertainties in the mole fractions computed from a photochemical model. This methodology is essential to improve the predictivity of photochemical models and, consequently, to better understand the physical and chemical processes that govern the composition of giant planet atmospheres.     

中国南方早奥陶世岩相古地理

中国南方是指西至金沙江-元江断裂、西北至龙门山断裂、北至城口-房县-襄樊-广济断裂，东北至郯城-庐江断裂,东至黄海和东海，南至南海的中国南方的广大地区。面积约2 000 000 km2 。在露头剖面和钻井部面的地层学和岩石学研究所取得的各种定量及定性资料的基础上，采用单因素分析综合作图法，编制出了中国南方下奥陶统新厂阶和宁国阶的各种单因素图以及相应的新厂期和宁国期岩相古地理图。在这两幅古地理图中，有7个主要的古地理单元，即滇西台地、康滇陆、扬子台地、斜坡、江南盆地、东南台地和华夏陆。前5个古地理单元属康滇古地理体系，后两个古地理单元属华夏古地理体系。这两幅古地理图的最大特征是定量，即每个古地理单元的划分和确定都有确切的定量的单因素图为依据和数据为依据。这种定量的岩相古地理图在我国南方早奥陶世还是首次出现。这种定量岩相古地理图在古地理学中是个重大的进展，对石油、天然气以及其他沉积矿的预测和勘探有重要的指导作用。     

Combination of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for sediment transport modeling in sewer pipes

Mitigation of sediment deposition in lined open channels is an essential issue in hydraulic engineering practice.Hence,the limiting velocity should be determined to keep the channel bottom clean from sediment deposits.Recently,sediment transport modeling using various artificial intelligence(AI) techniques has attracted the interest of many researchers.The current integrated study highlights unique insight for modeling of sediment transport in sewer and urban drainage systems.A novel methodology based on the combination of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a machine learning technique is proposed as a tool for selection of the best input combination for modeling process at non-deposition conditions of sediment transport.Utilizing one to seven dimensionless parameters,127 models are developed in the current study.In order to evaluate the different parameter co mbinations and select the training and te sting data,four strategies are considered.Considering the densimetric Froude number(Fr) as the dependent parameter,a model with independent parameters of volumetric sediment concentration(C_V) and relative particle size(d/R) gave the best results with a mean absolute relative error(MARE) of 0.1 and a root means square error(RMSE) of 0.67.Uncertainty analysis is applied with a machine learning technique to investigate the credibility of the proposed methods.The percentage of the observed sample data bracketed by95% predicted uncertainty bound(95 PPU) is computed to assess the uncertainty of the best models.     

Uncertainty analysis: one-dimensional radioactive nuclide transport in a single fractured media

Uncertainty analysis of radioactive nuclide transport for one-dimensional single fracture has been studied. First order differential analysis is applied to introduce analytical form of output expectation and variance for contaminant transport equation, by regarding uncertainty of dispersion coefficient and retardation factor. Breakthrough curve of dimensionless concentration is demonstrated by taking I-129 as radioactive nuclide in fracture transport. It is possible to pick up critical ranges in spatial and temporal domain from the output variance. From the viewpoint of preliminary performance assessment for nuclear waste disposal the parameter importance in such system can be substantially measured in the site characterization in future.