面向地震应急准备的居民地遥感提取及量化分析

运用灰度共生矩阵、数学形态学等方法提取新疆新源地区高分一号2 m分辨率影像居民地信息,运用目视解译、影像叠加分析、缓冲区分析等方法,进行居民地量化分级,为地震应急准备提供数据支持。结果表明：研究区在地震烈度为Ⅷ度及以下区域,埋压主要集中在单层结构为主的建筑区;当地震烈度高于Ⅷ度且造成多层建筑大面积倒塌时,县城等人口密集区为首要救援区;在地震应急准备时,应对交通条件三等区和交通条件四等区重点关注,增加应急物资储备点,对山区居民地,应考虑道路毁坏情况,转换救援方式,做好应急预案。     

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)

The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.     

PAN graphs An aid to GIS analysis

Abstract

Many data structures are possible for the storage of topological information for computer-based maps. The PAN graph is here suggested as an aid in the selection of a strategy appropriate to the application. Examples are given for the mapping of triangular networks and Thiessen polygons. Application of the technique is appropriate to both education in, and design of, spatial data structures for automated cartography and geographical information systems     

中国南方中及晚奥陶世岩相古地理

中国南方是指西至金沙江一元江断裂、西北至龙门山断裂、北至城口-房县-襄樊-广济断裂、东北至郯城-庐江断裂、东至黄海和东海、南至南海的中国南方的广大地区，面积约200万km^2。在露头剖面和钻井剖面的地层学和岩石学研究所取得的各种定量及定性资料的基础上，采用单因素分析综合作图法，编制出了中国南方中奥陶统胡乐阶(庙坡阶)和}韩江阶(宝塔阶)以及上奥陶统石口阶(临湘阶)和五峰阶的各种单因素图以及相应的各世的岩相古地理图。在这些古地理图中，有7个主要的古地理单元，即滇西台地、康滇陆、扬子台地、斜坡、江南盆地、东南台地和华夏陆。前5个古地理单元属康滇古地理体系，后两个古地理单元属华夏古地理体系。这些古地理图的最大特征是定量，即每个古地理单元的划分和确定都有确切的定量的单因素图和数据为依据。这种定量的岩相古地理图在我国南方中及晚奥陶世还是首次出现。这种定量岩相古地理图在古地理学中是个重大的进展，对石油、天然气以及其他沉积矿产的预测和勘探有重要的指导作用。最后，对两个古地理体系和7个主要古地理单元在整个寒武纪和奥陶纪各期或世的历史演化进行了较详细的探讨。     

矿田构造的研究历史、现状与发展

矿田构造是指在矿田范围内,控制矿床的形成和分布的地质构造因素的总和。在矿田构造和矿床构造的含义中,既包括构造形迹和岩石组构特征,又包括控矿构造的形成机制和发展历史。近10几年来的矿田矿床研究不仅强调构造对于矿体的形态、分布和组合的控制作用,也深入于构造作用对成岩成矿过程的研究。综合分析了矿田构造研究的研究历史、研究内容、研究现状与问题,对矿田构造与找矿研究的发展方向进行了展望。     

地震危险性分析中潜在震源区范围与震级上限的不确定性分析

目前进行的地震危险性分析计算中, 潜在震源区范围和震级上限的确定过程中存在很大的不确定性。 采用二级划分和三级划分潜在震源区的方法, 对潜在震源区范围不确定性进行了研究; 用震级上限的单边正态分布模型代替固定的震级上限模型, 分析了这种改进对地震危险性分析结果的影响及其工程意义。 结果表明, 用三级划分潜源的方法代替二级划分潜在震源方法可降低局部地区的地震危险性, 对于在潜在震源区附近选址和降低工程成本有重要意义。 震级上限的改进, 使得地震危险性降低, 这对百年使用年限的工程更具有实用性。     

Controlled Fracture Growth by Blasting While Protecting Damages to Remaining Rock

Summary. Conventional blasting causes cracks and fractures in the rock. Controlled blasting techniques produce the macrocrack in a desired direction and eliminate microcrack in the remaining rock. Macrocrack development in desired direction is required for extraction of dimensional stone and at the same time there is need to reduce microcrack development in the block and remaining rock. To achieve the objectives, experimental work in the quarries was carried out for separating marble block from the in situ strata as practiced in some of the Indian mines by using detonating cord of 30 to 50 g/m by varying hole spacing, hole diameter, air cushioning, water and sand filled blast-holes. Blasthole notching was carried out. Further, tests were carried out by using various liners inside the blasthole to determine the damages in the extracted block and remaining rock. The designed experimental work was undertaken and rock samples were collected by coring before and after blasting for quantification of microcrack in the rock. P-wave velocity and microscopic studies were conducted for quantification of damages. Experiments were also conducted at laboratory scale for the quantification of damages in single circular and notched holes with variation of stemming and liners. The P-wave velocity close to hole always reduces after blast and in case of NG-based charge and detonating cord it decreases up to 1/3^rd. With PVC pipe and paper tube liners decrease is negligible. Thus, by using notched hole with paper tube, decrease in P-wave is minimum indicating least damage.     

Ecological status of seagrass ecosystems: An uncertainty analysis of the meadow classification based on the Posidonia oceanica multivariate index (POMI)

Quantifying the uncertainty associated with monitoring protocols is essential to prevent the misclassification of ecological status and to improve sampling design. We assessed the Posidonia oceanica multivariate index (POMI) bio-monitoring program for its robustness in classifying the ecological status of coastal waters within the Water Framework Directive. We used a 7-year data set covering 30 sites along 500 km of the Catalonian coastline to examine which version of POMI (14 or 9 metrics) maximises precision in classifying the ecological status of meadows. Five factors (zones within a site, sites within a water body, depth, years and surveyors) that potentially generate classification uncertainty were examined in detail. Of these, depth was a major source of uncertainty, while all the remaining spatial and temporal factors displayed low variability. POMI 9 matched POMI 14 in all factors, and could effectively replace it in future monitoring programs.     

How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.