杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.     

地形变化对青岛地区风暴潮灾影响的一次模拟

本文以8509台风为例，模拟了因地形变化而对青岛地区风暴潮灾的影响。结果显示，如果胶州湾口外局部地形变深，在8509台风的情况下，风暴增水会造成一定程度的增加，而且对底层风暴潮流会造成更大的影响。     

能量分析在台风短期预报业务中的应用

本文以９４１４、９４１５号两个连续北上台风为例，证明能量场的分布与台风移向有着明显的对应关系。     

A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

火山射气岩浆喷发作用研究进展

射气岩浆喷发是一种特殊类型的火山活动，水在这类火山活动中起到至关重要的作用，且其喷发产物——低平火山口和基浪堆积物在我国乃至全世界都有广泛的分布。国际上对射气岩浆喷发的研究始于1921年，迄今为止已有80余年的历史。国内外许多学者运用火山地质学、岩石学、沉积学、物理火山学及数值模拟等多学科研究手段，对射气岩浆喷发作用及其产物进行详细的野外观测描述，并探讨其成因机制。本文在前人研究基础上，以我国南方北部湾周边第四纪火山区大量存在的射气岩浆喷发成因的低平火山口和基浪堆积物为研究对象，深入讨论了基浪堆积物的地质特征、射气岩浆喷发形成的基本条件、喷发过程的动力学机制以及基浪流的搬运过程等几方面重要问题，并对已有的研究成果进行了概括和总结，提出有待解决的难点，揭示了这类火山活动特有的属性。     

非地转强迫对Fitow(0114)暴雨的影响

利用非静力中尺度模式MM5对 0 114号台风Fitow从 2 0 0 1年 8月 31日 0 0时～ 9月 2日 0 0时 (UTC ,下同 )的降水过程进行了模拟研究。结果表明 ,MM5对Fitow登陆过程中暴雨落区和强度的模拟与实况比较一致。模拟结果较好地再现了暴雨的中尺度特征。正是维持少动的台风倒槽和嵌入其中的中小尺度系统相互作用造成了暴雨的发生、发展 ,而高、低空中尺度散度场的配置对暴雨有很好的指示意义。在华南台风暴雨区无论是高层还是低层 ,都存在很强的非地转作用 ,非地转涡度项对散度倾向项是重要的强迫因素 ;但非地转作用的实现与中高纬度地区有本质的区别 ,在低层非地转作用是由于强的位势场气旋涡度 (- 2  <0 )与弱的流场气旋涡度 (fζ >0 )不平衡产生的 ;而高层非地转作用是由于强的位势场反气旋涡度 (- 2  >0 )与弱的流场反气旋涡度 (fζ <0 )不平衡产生的。非地转作用是暴雨中尺度系统上升运动发展的触发机制。从动力学角度解释了用非地转 Q矢量散度场来判断暴雨落区要比用准地转 Q矢量散度场好的原因。     

用SSM/I微波遥感图像分析海上台风的螺旋云带

文中介绍了美国国防气象卫星专用微波成像仪 (SSM /I)上各通道的特性 ,分析了大气中各种粒子 (尤其是云滴和降水滴 )对各通道辐射的吸收和散射效应。通过对SSM /I图像上台风单通道剖面、双通道散点图的分析 ,揭示了台风在微波图像上表现形式的内在物理原因。在此基础上 ,设计了一个降水指数 ,方法是 :将 85 .5GHz的吸收段对称拉伸到散射段的延长线上 ,然后求归一化后的 19.35 ,37.0GHz和经拉伸处理的 85 .5GHz图像 3者的平均值。 3个通道合成降水指数克服了 37.0GHz对大雨滴不敏感 ,和 85 .5GHz对中等大小雨滴不敏感的缺点 ,比原始单通道微波图像更清楚地显示了台风的螺旋云带结构     

台风活动对副热带高压位置和强度的影响

利用一个浅水模式，实施了6组时间积分为4－5个模式日的试验，研究了台风对副热带高压中心位置及强度的影响。结果表明：台风和副热带高压的相互作用可以使高压中心位置西移,强度增加。据此讨论了台风活动和西北地区东部干旱之间统计联系的可能机制。     

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

澳大利亚东南部持续性降水的成因

利用热带天气图，日本ＧＭＳ卫星云图，ＥＣＭＷＦ格点风场资料，对澳大利亚东南部持续性降水的两类主要天气过程，热带云涌－冷锋尾流气旋锋生过程和阻塞反气旋北侧回流降水过程进行了分析，从云型演变，环流形热，热带流场等方面揭示了澳大利亚东南部持续性降水天气过程的基本特征、为业务预报提供参考。