Top-down modeling and bottom-up dynamics: Linking a fisheries-based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

In this paper we present results from dynamic simulations of the Northern California Current ecosystem, based on historical estimates of fishing mortality, relative fishing effort, and climate forcing. Climate can affect ecosystem productivity and dynamics both from the bottom-up (through short- and long-term variability in primary and secondary production) as well as from the top-down (through variability in the abundance and spatial distribution of key predators). We have explored how the simplistic application of climate forcing through both bottom-up and top-down mechanisms improves the fit of the model dynamics to observed population trends and reported catches for exploited components of the ecosystem. We find that using climate as either a bottom-up or a top-down forcing mechanism results in substantial improvements in model performance, such that much of the variability observed in single species models and dynamics can be replicated in a multi-species approach. Using multiple climate variables (both bottom-up and top-down) simultaneously did not provide significant improvement over a model with only one forcing. In general, results suggest that there do not appear to be strong trophic interactions among many of the longer-lived, slower-growing rockfish, roundfish and flatfish in this ecosystem, although strong interactions were observed in shrimp, salmon and small flatfish populations where high turnover and predation rates have been coupled with substantial changes in many predator populations over the last 40 years.     

A one-dimensional turbulence model; Enstrophy cascades and small-scale intermittency in decaying turbulence

Abstract

Severe unidirectional Fourier truncation of the equations for 2-D incompressible flow leads to a system of three coupled PDEs in one space dimension with the same quadratic invariants as the original set (i.e. energy and enstrophy). Numerically generated equilibria for inviscid, truncated versions of the reduced system are well approximated by Kraichnan's energy-enstrophy equipartition spectra. Viscous calculations for decaying turbulence at moderate resolution (1024 degrees of freedom) also appear to be consistent with a direct, k ^?3, enstrophy cascading inertial range when the dissipation is small. Dissipation range intermittency in the form of spatially intermittent enstrophy dissipation with occasional strong bursts producing linear phase locking is also observed. In contrast to full 2-D simulations, no tendency towards the emergence of isolated, coherent vorticity structures is observed. The model consequently mimics some, but not all, of the properties of the full 2-D set.     

Changes of water level in the Eemian palaeolake at Imbramowice (SW Poland) based on isotopic and cladoceran data

Isotopic and cladoceran investigations of Eemian (MIS 5e) lake sediments from Imbramowice, SW Poland, allow us to reconstruct the environmental conditions, especially changes of water level and trophic status, during the early and middle Eemian Interglaciation. We analyzed the sediments from 6.5 to 11.0 m depth in a core provided by Mamakowa (1989). The upper 6.5 m had insufficient carbonates and cladoceran contents for analyses. The analyzed section consists of sandy and organic silts at the bottom, followed by gyttja characterized by increasing CaCO₃ content. Measured δ¹⁸O values oscillate from ca. - 9 to - 4‰ and δ¹³C from - 3.5 to above + 6‰. Based on stable isotope analyses of carbonates, we define and characterize eight isotopic horizons (Is). We identify 26 taxa of subfossil Cladocera and seven zones (CLZ) of faunal development. Probably the greatest depth of the lake occurred with pollen zone E2; shallowing then took place. During pollen zones E2-E3, gradual warming is observed and expressed through a positive trend in both δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values. Pollen zone E4 is characterized by frequent changes of water level. During the Eemian Interglaciation, excluding the initial phase of lake evolution, the lake was meso-eutrophic and eutrophic with high phytoplankton productivity.     

Size‐based differences in isotopic niche width (δ13C and δ15N) of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting on Príncipe Island,Gulf of Guinea

Within the same population, nesting green turtles (Chelonia mydas) might exploit different niches by exhibiting polymorphic foraging strategies and/or inhabiting geographically distinct foraging areas. This is crucial information for the conservation of this species. Here, we used stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) to test for differences in a population of green turtles nesting on Príncipe Island (1°37′N; 7°24?′E), Central Africa. A total of 60 nesting females were sampled on the two main nesting beaches of the island in December 2012. Minimum curved carapace length (CCL) was recorded, and δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values were measured in the epidermis of each individual. Overall, CCL varied from 87.0 to 108.0 cm (mean ± SD =100.0 ± 5.1), δ¹³C values from ?19.4 to ?8.6‰ (?17.3 ± 1.8) and δ¹⁵N values from 7.9 to 17.3‰ (13.6 ± 1.5). Despite the large variation in both isotopic ratios, their distributions were unimodal, showing an absence of polymorphic foraging strategies and isotopically distinct foraging areas. However, smaller females (< median, 100.8 cm) occupied a much larger isotopic niche (i.e., four times greater) than larger females. These results suggest that nesting green turtles may forage opportunistically on the resources available in each of their foraging home ranges, with smaller females venturing to more isotopic‐diversified areas and/or exhibiting broader foraging strategies than larger females. In addition, and in accordance with other studies, findings suggest that the foraging grounds used by the Príncipe green turtle nesting females are distributed mainly throughout the Gulf of Guinea.     

Effects of the construction of Scroby Sands offshore wind farm on the prey base of Little tern Sternula albifrons at its most important UK colony

Despite widespread interest in the impacts of wind farms upon birds, few researchers have examined the potential for indirect or trophic (predator-prey) effects. Using surface trawls, we monitored prey abundance before and after construction of a 30 turbine offshore wind farm sited close to an internationally important colony of Little terns. Observations confirmed that young-of-the-year clupeids dominated chick diet, which trawl samples suggested were mainly herring. Multivariate modelling indicated a significant reduction in herring abundance from 2004 onwards that could not be explained by environmental factors. Intensely noisy monopile installation during the winter spawning period was suggested to be responsible. Reduced prey abundance corresponded with a significant decline in Little tern foraging success. Unprecedented egg abandonment and lack of chick hatching tentatively suggested a colony-scale response in some years. We urge a precautionary approach to the timing and duration of pile-driving activity supported with long-term targeted monitoring of sensitive receptors.     

Rainfall downscaling in time: theoretical and empirical comparison between multifractal and Hurst-Kolmogorov discrete random cascades

Abstract

During recent decades, intensive research has focused on techniques capable of generating rainfall time series at a fine time scale that are (fully or partially) consistent with a given series at a coarser time scale. Here we theoretically investigate the consequences on the ensemble statistical behaviour caused by the structure of a simple and widely-used approach of stochastic downscaling for rainfall time series, the discrete Multiplicative Random Cascade. We show that synthetic rainfall time series generated by these cascade models correspond to a stochastic process which is non-stationary, because its temporal autocorrelation structure depends on the position in time in an undesirable manner. Then, we propose and theoretically analyse an alternative downscaling approach based on the Hurst-Kolmogorov process, which is equally simple but is stationary. Finally, we provide Monte Carlo experiments which validate our theoretical results.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Lombardo, F., Volpi, E., and Koutsoyiannis, D., 2012. Rainfall downscaling in time: theoretical and empirical comparison between multifractal and Hurst-Kolmogorov discrete random cascades. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1052–1066.     

Leigh Marine Laboratory contributions to marine conservation

Abstract

The Leigh Marine Laboratory (LML) has taken full advantage of its location on the shores of one of the world's first no-take marine reserves. The foresight of the founders of the laboratory has enabled the pursuit of ecological studies that have been amongst the first to demonstrate the effectiveness of reserves as a tool for conservation and restoration. The insights flowing from this work at Leigh are important, not only for targeted marine species, but also at the ecosystem level, and have proven to be highly relevant to broader resource management issues. Novel methodologies have been employed in the pursuit of these aims, helping to popularise their wider use. More recent work has focused on understanding the processes underlying the variability in response to marine conservation in marine reserves across the spectrum of coastal marine habitats in New Zealand. The LML has probably exceeded the expectations of its founders, who hoped the laboratory might generate information of interest in the fields of ‘resource management, food web dynamics and natural fluctuations distinct from man-induced changes’, and its contribution in the field of marine conservation has been significant both within New Zealand and internationally. This has been a 50-year journey that has gone from a focus on local effects of conservation to the broader context, from direct effects of protection to indirect effects, and from small-scale spatial conservation management to ecosystem-based management.     

Resource depletion affects the structure of an experimental benthic food web

In this study, we investigated the long-term (2-year) response of a detritus-based food web to resource depletion simulated in microcosms filled with lake sediment. The effects of resource depletion on the food web were estimated from the biomass responses of a simplified, size-based trophic network comprising three trophic levels: (1) bacteria, (2) bacterivorous meiofauna, and (3) omnivore/predacious nematodes and oligochaetes. The results showed that sediment bacteria and organic carbon stock were not affected by resource depletion, whereas oligochaetes, large nematodes and some bacterivores, such as rotifers and ostracods, decreased dramatically. At the same time, resource depletion had no negative effect on minute bacterivorous nematodes and harpacticoid copepods, suggesting their release from competition with other bacterivores and/or their release from potential predation by large nematodes and oligochaetes. Our results globally confirmed classical trophic dynamics models in which a shortage in resources dampens food-chain length. Yet, low resources did not completely eliminate all large invertebrates, and did not affect the standing stock of detritus and bacteria, suggesting that detritus-based food webs could show a remarkable resilience to the effects of resource depletion.     

Bacterioplankton and phytoplankton production in seven lakes in the Middle Rio Doce basin, south-east Brazil

The purpose of this study was to measure the phytoplankton production (PP) and bacterial production (BP) simultaneously in seven lakes in the middle Rio Doce basin (southeast Brazil) during the dry and the rainy seasons. Limnological monitoring was conducted from 1999 to 2001 as well as both PP (radioactive carbon fixation) and BP (³H-Leucine incorporation) in four specific depths (100%, 10%, 1% of incident radiation, and aphotic zone). Furthermore, trophic state of the lakes was analyzed, considering the index proposed by Salas and Martino (1991) and Carlson (1977). In general, some parameters increased during the rainy season such as pH, conductivity, chlorophyll and total nitrogen. In the period of 1999/2000, the rain caused PP reduction in the lakes, excepting Carioca and Águas Claras Lake, but in the years 2000/2001, the lakes did not show a similar pattern. In contrast, the rainy season of both years caused an expressive bacterioplankton production enhancing. Using Salas and Martino index, we observed that some lakes were affected by the seasonal runoff, therefore the typologie of these lakes changed from oligotrophic to mesotrophic conditions, otherwise considering the Carlson index all lakes were classified as eutrophic in both dry and rainy seasons. Indeed, Salas and Martino index demonstrated to be more appropriate to determine the trophic status of the lakes. Finally, our data indicate that until now, in spite of the lakes location, protected and unprotected area, the lakes still maintain their natural characteristics.