数字观测仪器机房保温措施

介绍了朝阳地震台根据公皋井的实际情况，按照《规范》对前兆数字仪器设备工作环境的要求所采取的机房防寒保温的方法和措施。     

Thermal monitoring of Lascar Volcano, Chile, using infrared data from the along-track scanning radiometer: a 1992–1995 time series

 Lascar Volcano (22°22'S, 67°44'W) is the most active volcano of the central Andes of northern Chile. Activity since 1984 has been characterised by periods of lava dome growth and decay within the active crater, punctuated by explosive eruptions. We present herein a technique for monitoring the high-temperature activity within the active crater using frequent measurements of emitted shortwave infrared (SWIR) radiation made by the spaceborne along-track scanning radiometer (ATSR). The ATSR is an instrument of low spatial resolution (pixels 1 km across) that shares certain characteristics with the MODIS instrument, planned for use as a volcano monitoring tool in the NASA EOS Volcanology Project. We present a comprehensive time series of over 60 cloud- and plume-free nighttime ATSR observations for 1992–1995, a period during which Lascar experienced its largest historical eruption. Variations in short wavelength infrared flux relate directly to changes in high-temperature surfaces within the active crater. From these data, interpretations can be made that supplement published field reports and that can document the presence and status of the lava dome during periods where direct, ground-based, observations are lacking. Our data agree with less frequent information collected from sensors with high spatial resolution, such as the Landsat thematic mapper (Oppenheimer et al. 1993) and are consistent with field observations and models that relate subsidence of the dome to subsequent explosive eruptions (Matthews et al., 1997). Most obviously, Lascar's major April 1993 eruption follows a period in which the magnitude of emitted shortwave infrared radiation fell by 90%. At this time subsidence of the 1991–1992 lava dome was reported by field observers and this subsidence is believed to have impeded the escape of hot volatiles and ultimately triggered the eruption (Smithsonian Institution 1993a). Extrapolating beyond the period for which field observations of the summit are available, our data show that the vulcanian eruption of 20 July 1995 occurred after a period of gradual increase in short wavelength infrared flux throughout 1994 and a more rapid flux decline during 1995. We attribute this additional, otherwise undocumented, cycle of increasing and decreasing SWIR radiance as most likely representing variations in degassing through fumaroles contained within the summit crater. Alternatively, it may reflect a cycle of dome growth and decay. The explosive eruption of 17 December 1993 appears to have followed a similar, but shorter, variation in SWIR flux, and we conclude that large explosive eruptions are more likely when the 1.6-μm signal has fallen from a high to a low level. The ATSR instrument offers low-cost data at high temporal resolution. Despite the low spatial detail of the measurements, ATSR-type instruments can provide data that relate directly to the status of Lascar's lava dome and other high-temperature surfaces. We suggest that such data can therefore assist with predictions of eruptive behaviour, deduced from application of physical models of lava dome development at this and similar volcanoes. Received: 1 October 1996 / Accepted: 13 January 1997     

Cenozoic Magmatism and Tectonic Framework of Western Yunnan, China: Constrained from Geochemistry, Sr–Nd–Pb Isotopes and Fission Track Dating

Western Yunnan is composed of several extruded continental microblocks that were generated by the oblique collision between the Indian and Asian continents during the Cenozoic. In this study, the magmatic and tectonic frameworks of western Yunnan in the Cenozoic were analyzed based on geochemistry, Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes, and apatite/zircon fission track dating. Magmatism during the Cenozoic in western Yunnan was then divided into three distinctive episodes: alkali granite rocks produced from 55 to 46 Ma were derived from the anatexis of crustal materials; bimodal igneous rocks formed between 37 and 24 Ma were possibly derived from an EMII mantle with a contribution from continental materials; and intermediate–basic volcanic rocks produced in the Tengchong microblocks since ~16 Ma are considered to be generated by the partial melting of the upper mantle that was induced by the pulling apart of the dextral Gaoligong strike–slip fault system. Moreover, fission track analysis of apatite and zircon indicates that the regional crustal uplift in western Yunnan possibly began at ~34 Ma, with accelerated annealing occurring at ~24 Ma, ~13 Ma, and ~4 Ma. During the past 24 Ma, the average denudation rate was ~0.32 mm/yr for the faulted block controlled by the Chongshan–Lancang River fault. However, crustal uplift has been relatively gentle in places lacking influence from strike–slip shear zones, with an average denudation rate of ~0.2 mm/yr. Combined with strike–slip shear and block rotation in the Cenozoic, the tectonic evolution of western Yunnan since ~45 Ma can thus be divided into four stages occurring at 45–37 Ma, 37–24 Ma, 24–13 Ma, and 13–0 Ma.     

Simulations and analyses of train-induced ground vibrations in finite element models

Analyses of the actual vibration measurements and the results from the mathematical and numerical models have been performed in both the frequency and time domains. The conclusions from these analyses were that two-dimensional models could be used in order to study certain effects of train-induced ground vibrations, but that three-dimensional analyses are necessary to achieve a better simulation of the problem. All these analyses were linear elastic. It was, however, found in the three-dimensional analyses that relatively large shear strains existed in the embankment and in the soft soil layers just beneath the railway embankment. These shear strains were taken into consideration through iterative reduction of the shear modulus of the materials where large shear strains were calculated.     

涡旋强度调整半径对2016年第18号热带气旋路径预报的影响

2016年中国国家气象中心区域台风模式（GRAPES_TYM）对第18号热带气旋（记为TC 1618）的路径预报出现了较大的误差:其平均路径误差显著大于全年的平均误差。分析了涡旋初始化方案（包括涡旋重定位以及涡旋强度调整）对其路径预报的影响。结果显示,涡旋强度调整是造成TC1618预报路径平均误差偏大的主要原因。不同的强度调整半径（r₀=12°,9°,6°,3°）对TC1618路径影响的敏感性试验结果显示,强度调整半径越大,其平均路径预报误差越大。500 hPa副热带高压以及平均海平面涡旋尺度分析发现:较大的强度调整半径（r₀=12°,9°）其初始时刻的涡旋尺度较大,涡旋北侧邻近区域副热带高压等值线相对偏北,副热带高压相对偏弱。尺度大的涡旋其北移速度较大,并且在积分过程中其环流邻近区域副热带高压进一步减弱,导致涡旋环流会更早与其西北侧东移的西风槽结合,移速偏快。      

青藏高原高空流型对西太平洋台风路径影响的诊断分析

利用观测研究,动力诊断分析等手段,从上下游效应、中低纬相互作用的角度来探讨青藏高原高空天气系统的变化与西太平洋台风运动两者之间的关系。1970~1995年25年间的统计结果表明,青藏高原高空流型与台风路径有如下关系:高原高空500 hPa为低值系统控制时,有利于台风西行;反之,高原高空500 hPa为高压时,近海台风往往转向。动力诊断分析的结果揭示了高原上空系统影响下游系统的物理机制,即高原上游扰动动能的传递使得下游的槽发展,并进一步影响台风的引导气流。高原脊的存在,使得涡动动能的输送通道偏北;高原上为槽时,涡动动能的输送通道偏南。高原槽前的南风和台风东侧南风将低纬度的低位涡输入副热带高压,有利于副热带高压的发展,影响台风运动,体现了中低纬相互作用对天气系统的影响。     

冬季北太平洋风暴轴垂直结构的变化特征及其与我国极端低温事件的关系

采用NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40再分析资料,对比分析了冬季垂直尺度上北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变特征,揭示了北太平风暴轴垂直结构具有显著年际变化特征。冬季北太平洋风暴轴垂直结构主要呈现出全区一致、上下反相两种分布型,细分为全区一致增强型、全区一致减弱型、上层增强下层减弱型和上层减弱下层增强型。研究表明:冬季北太平洋风暴轴的垂直结构与我国极端低温事件的关系密切,风暴轴呈全区一致增强(全区一致减弱)型垂直结构时,我国整体区域极端低温频次偏少(多);风暴轴呈上层增强下层减弱(上层减弱下层增强)型垂直结构时,我国东北地区极端低温频次偏多(少),其余地区偏少(多)。     

面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述

历史热带气旋记录时间序列较短空间差异大,热带气旋灾害风险评估经常面临样本不足,特别是超强台风及巨灾记录历史样本的问题,从而导致传统概率统计方法失效。过去20多年来,逐渐发展出一套完整的方法体系进行热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟,其特点是充分利用历史总体样本信息,生成大量符合历史样本特征的热带气旋路径及强度随机事件样本集,从而有效地解决了局地历史样本不足的问题。在回顾热带气旋的年频次、季节分布、路径分布、强度及影响范围时空规律研究进展基础上,系统综述了用于热带气旋路径及随机模拟的起始点模型、行进模型、终止点模型、洋面强度模型、陆地衰减模型及结果检验方法等领域的进展及不足,然后对其在世界各地的应用进行了概述,并对未来研究改进方向及应用领域进行了展望。     

边界层参数化影响“梅花”台风的敏感性试验

以GRAPES-TCM为试验模式,对1109台风“梅花”进行了36次72 h的预报试验,通过试验分析了2种边界层参数化方案——MRF方案与YSU方案在不同情况下对台风预报的影响.结果显示:“梅花”路径与强度对边界层方案的变化都表现出一定的敏感性,敏感性大小与对流参数化方案、台风的初始强度等因素有关,强度的敏感性比路径更明显;对弱台风的路径与强度,YSU方案的总体预报效果优于MRF方案,对于强台风,2种边界层方案中MRF方案的路径预报效果更好,哪种方案的强度预报效果更好与对流参数化方案有关;无论何种情况,YSU方案预报的“梅花”强度都明显强于MRF方案,YSU方案预报的降水及感热通量与潜热通量总体上大于MRF方案;YSU方案时更多的感热通量和潜热通量与该方案时边界层更强的湍流混合有关,更多的潜热通量导致更多的降水,从而释放更多的潜热,更多的潜热释放以及更多的感热通量导致台风强度更强.     

SQL Server数据库中数据的安全监控

本文主要阐述了作者在工中遇到的SQL Server数据库中一些重要数据泄漏或是异常变动现象,随后通过各种技术手段追踪数据异常变更的根源的学习研究过程.从而达到了对日常工作中的重要数据进行安全监控、跟踪相关操作的目的,同时,也为各类数据的安全性、准确性提供了坚实的保障.