长三角地区民宿的空间分布及影响因素

近年来,民宿作为旅游业发展的新兴模式,日益受到关注,并呈现蓬勃发展状态。以民宿业发展最为成熟的长三角地区为研究对象,基于去哪儿网相关民宿数据,采用空间最邻近分析、密度分析等空间分析方法,研究民宿的空间分布格局与特征,并基于逐步回归分析,探讨影响民宿分布的因素,得出以下结论：① 长三角地区民宿呈现高度集聚的状态,整体上表现为多核心分布,并形成一、二、三级组团,密度由核心向外围递减。② 民宿集聚分布在经济较为发达的城市和核心景区周边,具有明显的中心性。③ 基于对经济基本状况、交通状况、人口条件、居民消费能力、旅游市场状况、旅游资源与环境条件等方面共15个影响因素分析,发现单位面积旅游收入、A级景区数量、人口密度、地区国内生产总值四个指标对民宿密度有显著正向影响,其中,影响力单位面积旅游收入>A级景区数量>人口密度>地区国内生产总值。     

环境管制对佛山市污染密集型企业空间格局变化的影响——基于2004年、2008年、2013年经济普查数据的实证

以佛山市2004年、2008年和2013年3次经济普查数据库中的污染密集型企业为研究对象,采用格数据空间回归模型,研究了佛山市污染密集型企业空间格局变化特征,并探究了环境管制对污染密集型企业及不同行业的企业空间格局变化的影响。研究发现:① 环境管制严格程度的变化使其从影响企业区位变动次要因素逐渐成为推动企业空间格局变化的重要因素,说明了环境管制变化会引起其对污染密集型企业区位变动作用程度的变化。② 在城市内部尺度,地方政府权衡污染行业整治利弊后,针对不同区域不同行业制定的差异化环境管制力度和模式,形成了不同行业空间格局响应的差异。研究结果对理解环境管制影响污染行业空间格局变化提供更微观的视角,对环境管制政策实现企业更替和产业升级具有一定启示,也对政府产业和环境政策制定具有借鉴意义。     

2005～2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析

基于2005~2015年全国统计年鉴数据,采用统计地图法和空间自相关分析,分析中国高校科研人才的时空分布特征（不包括港澳台数据）,并采用面板负二项回归模型,识别高校科研人才空间分布的决定因素。研究结果表明:①中国的高校科研人才分布表现出较强的空间不均衡性,总体趋势为东南密集,西北稀疏,科研人才高度集中在北京、天津、上海;②高校科研人才分布具有一定的空间集聚特征,其热点地区为北京、天津、上海和江苏等沿海省市,冷点地区集中分布在广大的西部地区和黑龙江省。2005~2015年,高级职称人才的空间集聚程度有所减弱,而中初级职称科研人才的空间集聚程度有所加强;③人才政策、高等教育规模和层次、公共服务水平和信息化水平是所有高校科研人才空间分布的主要影响因素。从职称差异的角度来看,薪酬和失业率等经济因素仅对初级职称科研人才的分布有影响,医疗、文化公共服务水平和人才政策仅对中高级职称科研人才的分布有影响,高等教育的规模与层次对各种职称人才的分布均有影响;从地区差异的角度来看,西部地区高校科研人才受到经济因素影响更为明显,而中东部高校科研人才受到公共服务水平影响的更为明显。     

民间信仰载体的地域格局及其影响因素——以兰州市榆中县祠庙文化为例

以祠庙祭祀为主体且祠庙保存良好的民间信仰是甘肃陇中地区民间文化的重要组成。甘肃陇中地区的民间信仰具有很强的趋同性,本文以陇中地区的榆中县为例,以各村的祠庙为民间文化载体,通过核密度分析、Logistic回归等方法探讨榆中县民间文化载体的空间分布及其影响因素对于探讨陇中地区人地关系,保护和弘扬民俗文化有着重要意义。研究结果表明：（1）根据已有研究将榆中县民间信仰归纳为山神信仰、水神信仰、天地信仰、女性信仰、英雄崇拜和祖先崇拜,祖先崇拜的祠庙数量占有重要地位;（2）榆中县祠庙主要分布在西北黄河南岸、中部陇海铁路沿线及南部风景名胜集聚区,村级层面空间差异不显著、乡镇空间差异相对较大。通过核密度分析,不同类别民间信仰空间分布热点各有不同;（3）榆中县民间信仰空间分布受到区位条件限制,民间信仰的祠庙多位于海拔高度较低、人口密度较大、交通可达性较好的地区,坡度和到水源的距离成为山神信仰和水神信仰祠庙空间分布显著的影响因子,榆中县祠庙呈现出山神信仰类祠庙“依山”,水神信仰类祠庙“傍水”的空间特点。     

基于GIS的资源环境承载力评价与空间布局优化—以荣成市为例

随着工业化、城镇化、农业现代化和信息化的进程加快,我国面临的资源环境承载规模将进一步扩大,经济社会活动强度也将更高,人口、资源、环境之间的矛盾与冲突将不可避免地日趋激烈,因此开展资源环境承载力评估研究十分必要。以荣成市为研究对象,建立了资源环境承载力评价指标体系,基于GIS技术实现了属性数据的空间化,完成了各项指数的计算,分析了荣成市资源环境承载力状况。在资源环境承载力评价的基础上,分乡镇对荣成市土地空间布局进行优化,并形成综合分区引导。研究结论显示,荣成市资源环境基础性评价为可载,基于水资源系统的综合承载状态判定为临界,基于生态条件与环境质量系统的综合承载状态判定为可载。基于评价结果结合区位特点,荣成市各乡镇可按新兴产业、制造业、服务业,生态旅游业,生态农业,生态林业4个方向引导开发。     

Temporal-Spatial Variation of Surface Suspended Matter and Controlling Factors in the Inner Shelf of the East China Sea in Winter

Based on the observed surface suspended matter in the East China Sea in February 2007 and June 2015, an empirical model was established using L1 b's band 4 data to retrieve surface suspended matter from the Moderate Resolution Imagine Spectroradiometer Terra imagery. The squared correlation coefficient is 0.8358, and the root mean square error is 0.4285 mg L-1. The model reflects the distribution characteristics of surface suspended matter in the inner shelf of the East China Sea. In this paper, the satellite images of the study area were retrieved in January from 2001 to 2015, and the monthly distribution of surface suspended matter were obtained. The inter-annual distribution of the study area is similar, and the concentration of surface suspended matter is higher near the shore than offshore. A large amount of surface suspended matter is transported southeast under the influence of Zhejiang and Fujian coastal current and Taiwan warm current. Only a small amount of surface suspension can reach the Kuroshio area. The surface suspended matter concentration changes obviously near the estuary because of the effect of differences in the flux of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, winter monsoon, temperature front, El Ni?o events, and other factors affect the distribution of surface suspended matter in 100 m isobath to coastal water but minimally influence the distribution in 100 m isobath to deep sea.     

Analysis and prediction of household carbon emission in northwest China北大核心CSCD

The economic development, living standard of residents and carbon emissions in Northwest China are lower than the national average. However,with the favorable policies the economic development is being improved and the household living standard is gradually raised up which will lead to an increase of the residents living carbon emissions, and the emission pattern will also be affected. This is detrimental to the fragile ecological environment of the Northwest China. At present, most of the researches on residents' carbon emissions are focused on the eastern and southern regions of China where there are frequent and significant human activities and high carbon emissions, and less attention has been paid to the northwest region, but the increase of carbon emissions and the increase of environmental costs have a more far-reaching impact on the less developed areas. In addition, when researchers pay attention to the prediction of residents' carbon emissions, they usually focus on the quantitative prediction and ignore the spatial pattern prediction, which is not conducive to the coordinated development between regions. Based on the data of energy consumption and consumption expenditure in the five provinces of Northwest China, including Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang from 1997 to 2016, this paper firstly used the direct coefficient method to measure the residents' direct carbon emissions, and the input-output method to calculate the indirect carbon emissions of the residents and analyzes the present situation of residents' carbon emissions in the northwest region. Secondly, based on standard deviation ellipse and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, the carbon emissions of residents in Northwest China were predicted in terms of quantity and spatial pattern from 2017 to 2021. Major results are listed as follows: From 1997 to 2016, household carbon emissions in Northwest China showed a rising trend with an initial slow pace followed by a quick pace. The direct carbon emissions were stabilized in the range from 0. 3 × 108 t to 0. 4 × 108 t,and the indirect carbon emissions reached 2. 38 × 108 t. The spatial distribution of household carbon emissions in Northwest China was generally steady with a direction pattern from northwest to southeast. And the moving trend of standard deviation ellipse was from northwest to southeast to northwest, and the center of standard deviation ellipse moved around the point of (99. 07 °E,38. 19°N). From 2017 to 2021, the direct household carbon emissions in Northwest China reach to 0.543 × 108 t and the indirect carbon emissions are 3. 631 × 108 t by 2021. With the development of the western region in China and the promotion of poverty alleviation,Xinjiang Province had a lower emission than Shaanxi,but it had the higher growth rate than Shaanxi. These factors are all driving the main areas of carbon emission northwestward. The purpose of this paper is to recommend how to coordinate between the population and consumption and the environment, leading citizens to establish the value of low-carbon consumption. © 2019 Science Press (China). All rights reserved.     

2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布特征及输送过程

利用最新发布的CALIPSO产品,构建了2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布,并结合HYSPLIT-4模式和再分析数据,探讨了沙尘的三维输送过程。结果表明：中国的沙尘排放源区主要是塔克拉玛干沙漠和巴丹吉林沙漠,沙尘气溶胶出现频率分别为60%和35%。塔克拉玛干沙漠排放的沙尘主要（50%~70%）停留在源地0~6 000 m高度,少部分向东输送至甘肃和内蒙古;巴丹吉林沙漠排放的沙尘则主要向东输送。中国沙尘排放量在春季最大,向东输送最强;夏季,东亚夏季风限制了沙尘向东输送;秋季,沙尘排放减弱,输送强度和夏季相当;沙尘排放量在冬季最小,输送最弱。夏季,沙尘在输送过程中可被抬升至高度5 000 m以上,春季次之,秋、冬季的沙尘主要在低层大气输送。沙尘在向东输送的过程中被抬升并和当地人为污染物混合变为污染性沙尘,华北地区污染性沙尘出现频率高达30%;输送到海洋的沙尘也会与洋面上（0~3 000 m高度）的海盐气溶胶混合,出现频率约为10%。     

珠江口枯水期和丰水期中小型浮游动物群落动态

根据珠江口枯水期(2013年11月)和丰水期(2014年8月) 24个站位调查资料,对中小型浮游动物种类组成、丰度分布、群落结构及其主要影响因子进行了研究.结果表明,枯水期和丰水期分别鉴定浮游动物成体91种和70种,以桡足类最为丰富.浮游动物种类从河口上游向外围逐渐增加.浮游动物丰度时空分布差异显著,丰水期平均值高达11 619. 78 ind/m~3,显著高于枯水期的1 707. 13 ind/m~3.桡足类在珠江口中小型浮游动物中占绝对优势,枯水期和丰水期分别占总丰度的80. 3%和93. 0%,对浮游动物的丰度分布起关键作用.强额孔雀哲水蚤(Parvocalanus crassirostris)、中华异水蚤(Acartiella sinensis)和刺尾纺锤水蚤(Acartia spinicauda)在两个水期均为主要优势种,小拟哲水蚤(Paracalanus parvus)和厦门矮隆哲水蚤(Bestiolina amoyensis)则分别在枯水期和丰水期具有较高的优势度.聚类分析的结果显示,枯水期和丰水期该水域浮游动物均可划分为3个群落.相关性分析表明,珠江口中小型浮游动物群落结构受多个环境因子的影响,但盐度是其中最为关键的非生物因子.