气候多雨与强震发生的延时关系

本文通过建立门限回归模型,研究了华北地区气候变化与强震发生的关系,发现明显有大约12年的延时相关。该延时尺度对中国其它地区和日本、美国的地震活动也同样适合。认为气候多雨是长期地震预报中的一个可用重要因素。     

Streamflow drought time series forecasting

Drought is considered to be an extreme climatic event causing significant damage both in the natural environment and in human lives. Due to the important role of drought forecasting in water resources planning and management and the stochastic behavior of drought, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is applied to the monthly streamflow forecasting of the Zayandehrud River in western Isfahan province, Iran. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, four drought thresholds including streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean, 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year return period monthly drought and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed a drought period with different severity in the lead-time. This study also demonstrates the usefulness of SARIMA models in forecasting, water resources planning and management.     

The effect of plastic fines on the pore pressure generation characteristics of saturated sands

Pore water pressure generation during earthquake shaking initiates liquefaction and affects the shear strength, shear stiffness, deformation, and settlement characteristics of soil deposits. The effect of plastic fines (kaolinite) on pore pressure generation in saturated sands was studied through strain-controlled cyclic triaxial tests. In addition to pore pressure generation, this experimental study also focused on evaluating the threshold shear strain for pore pressure generation and the volumetric compressibility of specimens during pore pressure dissipation. The results reveal that specimens having up to 20% plastic fines content generated larger values of pore water pressure than clean sand specimens. At 30% fines content, the excess pore water pressure decreased below that of clean sand. The threshold shear strain, which indicates the strain level above which pore pressures begin to generate, was assessed for different kaolinite–sand mixtures. The threshold shear strain was similar for 0–20% fines (γ_t0.006–0.008%), but increased to about 0.025% for 30% fines. The volumetric compressibility, measured after pore pressure generation, was similar for all specimens. The transition of behavior at fines contents between 20% and 30% can be attributed to a change in the soil structure from one dominated by sand grains to one dominated by fines.     

Experimental and numerical investigation of non-predictive phase-control strategies for a point-absorbing wave energy converter

Phase control may substantially increase the power absorption in point-absorber wave energy converters. This study deals with validation of dynamic models and latching control algorithms for an oscillating water column (OWC) inside a fixed vertical tube of small circular cross-section by small-scale testing. The paper describes experimental and numerical results for the system's dynamics, using simple and practical latching control techniques that do not require the prediction of waves or wave forces, and which will be relevant to any type of point-absorbing devices.In the experimental set-up, the upper end of the tube was equipped with an outlet duct and a shut-off valve, which could be controlled to give a latching of the inner free surface movement. The pressure drop through the open valve is used as a simplified measure of the energy extraction. The control was realized by using the real-time measurement signals for the inner and outer surface displacement.A mathematical model of the system was established and applied in numerical simulation. In the case the OWC's diameter is much smaller than the wavelength and the wave amplitude much smaller than the draft, the free surface movement inside the tube can be described as an oscillating weightless piston. For this hydrodynamic problem an analytical solution is known. In addition, the mathematical model includes the effects of viscous flow losses, the air compressibility inside the chamber and the pressure drop across the valve. Experimental results were used to calibrate some of the model parameters, and the total model was formulated as a coupled system of six non-linear, first-order differential equations. Time-domain integration was used to simulate the system in order to test the control strategies and compare with experimental results.     

内蒙古地区极端降水事件分布特征

基于内蒙古地区94个气象站1961—2007年逐日降水量资料,利用累积频率法,分析了极端降水事件变化特征。结果表明:(1)近50年内蒙古地区极端降水事件和极端强降水事件发生的强度和出现的频次均呈现出增多趋势,尤其在1977年降水发生突变之后,增加趋势更为明显。(2)近50年内蒙古地区最长连续无降水日数和最长连续降水日数持续时间缩短,表明连续性干旱和降水的持续性减弱,尤其是进入本世纪后,最长连续无降水日数陡升和最长连续降水日数陡降,气候湿润程度下降,加之全球气候变暖,使内蒙古地区进入本世纪后暖而干的气候特征更为明显,这对农牧业生产和生态环境保护极为不利。(3)内蒙古地区近50年小雨和暴雨日数的减少,降水强度的加大,使全区降水不稳定性增加,降水有极端化发展趋势,尤其是在1987年气温发生突变之后,降水强度变化更大。     

Environmental response of a desert springbrook to incremental discharge reductions,Death Valley National Park,California, USA

Desert springs are biodiversity hotspots that are easily altered by anthropogenic activities. Little is known about the effects of human disturbance on desert springs, and scarce information exists describing the environmental effects of incrementally increasing disturbance. The objective of this research was to quantify the influence of incremental reductions in discharge on the physical and thermal characteristics of a desert springbrook. In this study, the physical characteristics of a desert springbrook include hydraulic attributes that influence habitat availability, such as wetted area, flow velocity, and water depth. Thermal characteristics refer to water temperature and temperature gradients. The research objective was accomplished through a combination of field experiments at Travertine Spring, Death Valley National Park, USA, and hydraulic/temperature modeling to: (1) quantify changes in physical characteristics of the springbrook channel and aquatic environment; (2) investigate the effects of reduced spring discharge on seasonal spatial temperature patterns; (3) delineate tipping points that exhibit a non-linear response to decreased flow. We found that the physical environment changed with small decreases in discharge. Thermal tipping points were also exhibited due to decreases in discharge, but the magnitude of these responses was a function of distance from the spring source, seasonality, and temperature.     

沙尘天气过程临界起沙因子的研究进展

临界起沙摩阻风速u*t或临界起沙风速ut是土壤可蚀性的度量指标之一,是表征沙尘颗粒进入大气的重要因子,也是沙尘暴预报模块中最重要的参数之一.野外实验、模式参数化和统计理论是近年来确定临界起沙摩阻风速u*t或临界起沙风速ut的3种主要方法.利用不同方法获取u*t或ut的结果可以相互校验.野外实验的实测结果可为获取适用的起...     

Spatial and temporal variations in sediment accumulation and their impacts on coral communities in the Sanya Coral Reef Reserve,Hainan, China

This study investigated the spatial and temporal variations of sediment accumulation and their impacts on coral communities in four sites at two or three depths (3 m, 6 m and 9 m) at the Sanya Coral Reef Reserve by deploying sediment traps on the sea floor during 2007–2009. Rainfall and typhoon events, which appeared to control sediment accumulation in the sea floor of the coral reef, were positively correlated with total sediment and sand-sized (i.e. 63–2000 µm) sediment accumulation. Sediment accumulation rate significantly decreased with the distance far away from the coast in Sanya. The mean sediment accumulation rates in Ximaozhou, Luhuitou and Xiaodonghai during 2007 to 2009 were close to 20 mg cm⁻² d⁻¹, and they were significantly higher than that in Yalongwan, probably as a result of terrestrial soil erosion caused by strong coast human activities (e.g. coastal construction, dredging and hillside clearing). Correlation analysis revealed that silt-clay-sized sediment accumulation rate was highly negatively correlated with total live coral cover and coral cover in some taxa, such as Montipora and branching Porites. whereas, Diploastrea heliopora was positively correlated with silt-clay-sized sediment accumulation. Correlation analysis also suggested that silt-clay-sized sediment accumulation had a higher efficiency in predicting the spatial variation of total live coral cover in Sanya than did the total sediment accumulation. Based on this investigation, we conclude that high rates of sediment accumulation pose a severe threat to the Sanya Coral Reef Reserve, highlighting the importance of integrated watershed management practices in the Sanya Coral Reef Reserve.     

地震阈值监测技术的研究与应用

阈值监测技术是一种利用地震台站实时数据反映台网监测能力变化的方法。对台站数据进行预处理后,计算短时平均值STA作为信号能量的估计来计算震级,由概率统计方法实现对地震台网监测能力变化的动态监测。文中给出了利用短时平均值STA和震中距计算震级的公式;采用新疆地区部分地震台站的数据,并以新疆地震目录给定的ML为准,对相关的地震台站计算震级所需参数进行了标定;最后结合实例说明定点阈值监测技术的应用,分析了新疆专用地震台网在某一时间段内对定点区域的监测能力。     

无锡极端气温事件的气候分析

为了解气候增暖情况下,无锡地区极端最高和最低气温的气候特征,用阈值检测方法对无锡市1959-2007年的日最高气温、日最低气温进行了研究,分析了极端事件的发生规律,得出主要结论:(1)从年代际看,不论是日最高气温或日最低气温,2001-2007年偏高事件最多,偏低事件最少.(2)最低气温从1980s初开始稳定上升.(3)在3、5、7、12月比较容易出现异常的气温.月内异常气温出现次数多少主要与季节更替和天气系统的转换有关.(4)日最低气温不论冬春夏秋,都是明显升高.日最高气温冬、春、秋季呈升高趋势,而夏季震荡加大.即在夏季,日最高气温偏高的事件增多,日最高气温偏低的事件也增多.