油页岩热破裂规律显微CT实验研究

利用太原理工大学和中国工程物理研究院应用电子学研究所最新共同研制的μCT225kVFCB型高精度（μm级）CT试验分析系统,对油页岩从常温到600 ℃高温下的热破裂过程进行了显微观测和分析,揭示了抚顺油页岩的热破裂阈值温度为300 ℃附近.当温度低于300 ℃时,已可见到极少数较小的微裂隙出现,裂隙多发育于原生层理面以及硬质矿物颗粒的周围,形成的破裂面基本上都与层理面互相平行.当温度超过300 ℃,由于受到热分解化学反应的控制,裂隙的数量、长度和宽度剧烈增加,呈现广泛发育、集中爆发的特点,并使原有裂隙迅速延展和贯通,且裂隙面仍具有与层理面平行的特点,这是油页岩热破裂的典型特征;同时,也形成了许许多多垂直于层理方向的微小裂隙,小裂隙与大裂隙的搭接连通,形成了一个庞大的连通网络结构,从根本上提高了油页岩的渗流能力.     

Effects of micro-topography on surface–subsurface exchange and runoff generation in a virtual riparian wetland — A modeling study

In humid upland catchments wetlands are often a prominent feature in the vicinity of streams and have potential implications for runoff generation and nutrient export. Wetland surfaces are often characterized by distinct micro-topography (hollows and hummocks). The effects of such micro-topography on surface–subsurface exchange and runoff generation for a 10 by 20 m synthetic section of a riparian wetland were investigated in a virtual modeling experiment. A reference model with a planar surface was run for comparison. The geostatistically simulated structure of the micro-topography replicates the topography of a peat-forming riparian wetland in a small mountainous catchment in South-East Germany (Lehstenbach). Flow was modeled with the fully-integrated surface–subsurface code HydroGeoSphere. Simulation results showed that the specific structure of the wetland surface resulted in distinct shifts between surface and subsurface flow dominance. Surface depressions filled and started to drain via connected channel networks in a threshold controlled process, when groundwater levels intersected the land surface. These networks expanded and shrunk in a spill and fill mechanism when the shallow water table fluctuated around the mean surface elevation under variable rainfall inputs. The micro-topography efficiently buffered rainfall inputs and produced a hydrograph that was characterized by subsurface flow during most of the year and only temporarily shifted to surface flow dominance (> 80% of total discharge) during intense rainstorms. In contrast the hydrograph in the planar reference model was much “flashier” and more controlled by surface runoff. A non-linear, hysteretic relationship between groundwater level and discharge observed at the study site was reproduced with the micro-topography model. Hysteresis was also observed in the relationship between surface water storage and discharge, but over a relatively narrow range of surface water storage values. Therefore it was concluded that surface water storage was a better predictor for the occurrence of surface runoff than groundwater levels.     

近岸海域EnviSat卫星测高波形重定的Threshold优化算法

波形重定是改善近岸海域卫星测高数据精度的一种有效方法.分析了EnviSat雷达测高波形重定算法,并对Threshold算法进行了优化,开发了波形重定程序;以地中海为实验区,利用几种波形重定方法,对近岸海域的EnviSat测高波形进行重定,认为优化的Threshold算法是几种波形重定算法中最稳健的重定算法,适合于地中海近岸海域EnviSat测高波形的重定,对其他近岸海域的应用也有一定的参考意义.     

用双通道动态阈值对GMS-5图像进行自动云检测

该文用双通道动态阈值法对GMS-5图像进行自动的云检测。在红外通道和可见光通道，分别对每32×32个像元组成的像元阵进行直方图统计，求出区别云和地物值域的阈值，然后对每个像元阵内的逐个像元进行云判识。讨论了在进行直方图分析以求取阈值的过程中，像元阵大小的选取和动态平滑间距的选取对云检测结果的影响。分析结果表明:像元阵大小取32×32时，像元阵所占的地域空间尺度足够小，像元阵内的观测像元样本数足够多，保证了在直方图聚类分析时，每一类含有足够多的样本；GMS-5观测图像的红外通道对原始直方图进行二次平滑时小平滑间距取1.6 K，可见光通道小平滑间距取1.2%，使得确定动态阈值时步长相对小，保证了分析的精度。用目视图像对分析结果进行真实性检验，在中低纬度地区，可见光和红外两个通道都有资料时，该算法的云判识精度较好。在高纬度地区，由于地表温度低，积雪覆盖多，太阳光照角低，该算法的云判识精度较差。     

Estimation of Contamination of ERS-2 and POSEIDON Satellite Radar Altimetry Close to the Coasts of Australia

It is broadly acknowledged that the precision of satellite-altimeter-measured instantaneous sea surface heights (SSH) is lower in coastal regions than in open oceans, due partly to contamination of the radar return from the coastal sea-surface state and from land topography. This study investigates the behavior of ERS-2 and POSEIDON altimeter waveform data in coastal regions and estimates a boundary around Australia's coasts in which the altimeter range may be poorly estimated by on-satellite tracking software. Over one million 20 Hz ERS-2 (March to April 1999) and POSEIDON (January 1998 to January 1999) radar altimeter waveform data were used over an area extending 350 km offshore Australia. The DS759.2 (5'resolution) ocean depth model and the GSHHS (0.2 km resolution) shoreline model were used together to define the coastal regions. Using the 50% threshold retracking points as the estimates of expected tracking gate, we determined that the sea surface height is contaminated out to maximum distance of between about 8 km and 22 km from the Australian shoreline for ERS-2, depending partly on coastal topography. Using the standard deviation of the mean waveforms as an indication of the general variability of the altimeter returns in the Australian coastal region shows obvious coastal contamination out to about 4 km for both altimeters, and less obvious contamination out to about 8 km for POSEIDON and 10 km for ERS-2. Therefore, ERS-2 and POSEIDON satellite altimeter data should be treated with some caution for distances less than about 22 km from the Australian coast and probably ignored altogether for distances less than 4 km.     

香港降水的短期气候预测

利用正规化周期回归分析方法和门限自回归理论对香港1853-1995年月降水资料进行了建模和拟合，并对1996年进行了预报试验，正规化周期回归拟合效果较好，对香港7个时距的试报准确率为71%，建立了7个时距的10年滑动平均序列的门限自回归模型，模型对序列拟合效果较理想，预报误差较小，试报准确率主国100%。     

一非线性统计－动力气候模式及其降水预报试验

在带有线性反馈的统计－动力气候模式的基础上，提出了一种非线性统计－动力气候模式。该模式的实质是用逐段线性化的统计－动力气候模式来描述气候系统的总体非线性变化特征。试验结果表明，该模式能更客观地预测气候变化     

敦煌春季沙尘天气过程中某些参量和影响因子的变化特征

利用中日合作"风送沙尘的形成、输送机制及其对气候与环境影响(ADEC)的研究"项目敦煌站的观测资料,分析了2001年和2002年春季沙尘天气过程中两个沙尘参量———沙尘浓度指数(DCI)和粒子数浓度(N(d))的变化以及摩擦速度(u )和风速(u)与地面风蚀起沙的关系。结果表明:可用DCI=0.2作为扬沙、浮尘等一般沙尘天气的临界值,DCI=0.4作为沙尘暴天气的临界值;沙地和农田上起沙的临界摩擦速度分别约为0.5m·s-1和0.3m·s-1,临界风速分别约为7m·s-1和3m·s-1。农田和沙地起沙临界摩擦速度的差异,导致绿洲站沙尘天气发生的频数比沙漠站大;与地面起沙量有关的总沙尘粒子数浓度N(d>0.5μm)近似与u2 成比例。     

The tipping point trend in climate change communication

This article documents the use of tipping points in climate change discourse to discuss their significance. We review the relevant literature, and discuss the popular emergence of tipping points before their adoption in climate change discourse. We describe the tipping point trend in mainstream US and UK print news media and in the primary scientific literature on climate change by replicating the methodologies of Oreskes [Oreskes, N., 2004. The scientific consensus on climate change. Nature 306, 1686] and Boykoff and Boykoff [Boykoff, M.T., Boykoff, J.M., 2004. Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press. Global Environmental Change 14, 125–136]. We then discuss the significance of climate change tipping points and their popular use in terms of generative metaphor.     

雷暴云内电场探测仪及初步实验结果

雷暴云内的电场探空是了解雷暴电荷结构的重要手段之一。为了定量了解雷暴云内的电场分布以确定雷暴的电荷结构,本文根据强电场环境中尖端放电原理,制作了尖端放电电流传感器。该电流传感器包括两根长度均为1 m的同轴电缆和一个时间常数为0.1 s、量程±16μА的精密电流放大电路;两根同轴电缆悬空垂直于地面,相对放大电路对称布置,两个尖端的长度为5~6 cm。利用该电流传感器,同时配合温度、相对湿度、GPS等传感器,组成了雷暴云内电场综合探空仪,并于2007年夏天在甘肃平凉地区进行了初步实验。利用雷暴天气条件下的大气平均电场仪与尖端放电电流传感器进行的地面同步观测记录,得出了大气电场—尖端放电电流的拟合关系,发现负电晕放电(尖端为阴极)的阈值电场和正电晕放电阈值电场存在一定差异,且负电晕放电的阈值较低。本文认为这一差异源于正、负电晕放电机制的差异。利用气球携带的电场综合探空仪进行了探空实验,得到了一次空中电场的初步探测结果,在此基础上,对探空路径上可能存在的电荷区域进行了分析。