强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。     

近年影响桂林的台风暴雨动力热力特征及日本数值预报产品检验

对近年造成桂林台风暴雨的大中尺度环流背景形势作了分析,着重对比分析了尤特和黄蜂台风暴雨的热力、动力特征,对比结果表明:高空槽云系与台风倒槽云系叠加造成的暴雨远比单纯的台风环流造成的暴雨严重,说明中低纬天气系统的相互作用能造成暴雨的增幅。同时检验了日本数值预报产品对台风暴雨预报能力,结果表明:日本数值预报产品对台风环流本身造成暴雨有较好预报能力。     

我国华南3月份降水异常的可能影响因子分析

利用1951～2005年华南地区3月份的降水资料、NOAA海温资料、Ni?o3.4指数和NCEP再分析资料,分析了华南3月份降水异常与同期环流场、全球海温场的关系,从环流和海温的角度揭示了华南3月份降水异常的可能原因。结果表明,当华南3月份降水偏多(少)时,在对流层中低层,北太平洋海区存在气旋(反气旋)性环流异常,西太平洋及南海海面上存在反气旋(气旋)性环流异常,这样的环流异常有利(不利)于东南暖湿气流与北方东部异常冷空气在华南地区形成水汽辐合,导致降水显著增多(减少)。进一步的分析表明,ENSO和北印度洋及南海附近海温是影响华南3月份降水异常的重要外强迫因子,ENSO对华南3月降水异常的影响是通过影响春季西太平洋副热带高压和低层风场异常实现的,而北印度洋及南海附近海温对华南3月降水异常的影响则是通过垂直环流场异常和低层风场以及西太平洋副热带高压异常来实现的。     

New Ar–Ar age constraints on the deformation along the Machaoying fault zone: Implications for Early Cambrian tectonism in the North China Craton

The Machaoying fault zone extends along the southern margin of the North China Craton (NCC) and controlled the regional structures and hydrothermal mineral systems in this area. The fault underwent at least two major deformational phases, as revealed by macro- and micro-structural observations from a well-developed segment of the fault in the Hongzhuang–Baitu area, located south of the Xiong'er Mountains. Early ductile deformation is characterized by thrusting from north to south, which was subsequently overprinted by late brittle faulting. Syntectonic strain shadows of biotite are preserved around rotated porphyroclasts of quartz amygdales in mylonite. The biotite yields a ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar plateau age of 524.9 ± 1.9 Ma, which is interpreted as the time of regional thrusting along the Machaoying fault zone. The thrusting may be temporally correlated with an Early Cambrian discontinuity in sedimentation observed in the rocks sequences of the NCC, suggesting a compressional regime in this area and a craton-wide tectonic event. Many 540–500 Ma tectonic events have been previously identified in the Qinling–Qilian–Kunlun Orogenic Belt of central China and in massifs in northeastern China, both of which surround the NCC, and some of these were interpreted to be associated with assembly of Gondwana. However, paleomagnetic data indicate that the NCC was unlikely to have been connected with Gondwana in the Early Cambrian and thus our new biotite date cannot record deformation along the Gondwanan margin. Dating of K-feldspar from a quartz–K-feldspar vein formed along one of the brittle faults of the Machaoying fault zone yields a much younger ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar plateau age of 119.5 ± 0.7 Ma. This is a minimum age for the brittle deformation along the southern margin of the NCC, which also overlaps the age of widespread gold and molybdenum mineralization in the region.     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

辽北地区早石炭世变质火山岩年代学和地球化学特征:对华北板块北缘东段构造演化的启示

华北板块北缘东段分布的构造混杂岩带为研究古亚洲洋的演化提供了重要的依据,"下二台岩群"作为该构造混杂岩带的重要组成部分,其形成时代和构造属性仍存在争议。详细的研究表明下二台地区变质火山岩原岩包括流纹岩、英安岩、安山岩,为一套钙碱性火山岩,属于准铝质-弱过铝质岩石,根据岩相学和地球化学特征将其分为变质酸性火山岩和变质中性火山岩;二者均相对富集轻稀土元素,亏损重稀土元素,轻重稀土元素分馏明显,Eu负异常不明显,但变质中性火山岩稀土总量低于变质酸性火山岩,变质酸性火山岩明显亏损Sr、P元素,结合野外产出面积和高场强元素相关性特征,认为二者不是同一基性岩浆分异的产物。变质火山岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄为341～348Ma,代表其原岩结晶年龄。变质酸性火山岩原始岩浆来自于地壳物质的部分熔融,变质中性火山岩原始岩浆来自于俯冲带附近岩石圈地幔,并遭受了地壳物质的混染,二者均形成于活动大陆边缘火山弧环境。最新研究成果表明"下二台岩群"由不同时代、不同构造环境下形成的地质单元叠置混杂而成,称其为"下二台"构造杂岩更为准确。下二台地区变质火山岩表明在早石炭世初,古亚洲洋板块已经南向俯冲,在华北板块北缘形成活动大陆边缘弧环境,早石炭世变质火山岩原岩为这一俯冲阶段的产物。     

南水北调东中两线不同水文区降水丰枯遭遇性分析

南水北调东中两线不同水文区来水的丰枯遭遇性是跨流域水资源调配必须考虑的重要问题。据年、季和月三种不同时间尺度的降水系列分别探讨了华北地区与长江中下游及华北地区与汉江上游来水丰枯的遭遇性。结果表明：不论是华北地区与长江中下游,还是华北地区和汉江上游,其降水丰枯异步频率都略大于丰枯同步频率。在三同步现象中,南北同枯出现的频率较低。就适合调水的４种丰枯遭遇情形统计,华北地区和长江中下游年尺度上的频率总和     

The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO₂ levels exceeded ∼320 ppm. When CO₂ levels reached ∼340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of ∼387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO₂ levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO₂ levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO₂ emissions could trigger the Earth’s sixth mass extinction.     

长江三角洲地区水和热通量的时空变化特征及影响因子

文中利用改进的K B模式和牛顿扩散方法及 196 1年以来的长江三角洲 (2 8～ 33°N ,118～ 12 3°E)地区的 4 8个测站的常规气象资料 ,估计了该地区近 4 0a来的蒸散量和感热通量。结合该地区的气温、太阳辐射等气候资料和 196 0年以来该区域土地资源利用变化等有关信息对该地区的潜热通量和感热通量的时 空间变化特征及其可能成因进行了综合分析。结果认为该地区自 2 0世纪 70年代开始平均蒸散量有逐渐减小的趋势 ,与 1980年相比 ,1998年区域年平均蒸散量减小了 2 4mm。区域平均感热通量与蒸散量相比在此期间变化并不明显。通过对该地区的云量、太阳辐射及土地利用变化资料分析认为 ,造成该地区平均蒸散量减少趋势的的原因之一是用于蒸发的能量即太阳辐射的减少 ,而造成太阳辐射减少的可能原因为云量及大气透明度的变化所至 ;原因之二是该地区地表覆盖条件的改变。近 2 0a来 ,该地区的水田、旱地及水域面积占总面积的比率分别减少 1.35 3% ,4 .4 4 2 %和2 .5 97% ,而城镇建设、工矿及其它建设用地面积则增加 3.345 %。耕地及水面的减小和城镇及建设用地面积的增加从整体上使区域平均蒸发量减少。     

中西太平洋延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼渔场时空分布与温跃层关系

为了解热带中西太平洋延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)适宜的温跃层参数分布区间,采用Argo浮标温度信息和中西太平洋渔业委员会(The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission,WCPFC)的黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓渔获数据,绘制了热带中西太平洋月平均温跃层特征参数和月平均CPUE的空间叠加图,用于分析热带中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场时空分布和温跃层特征参数间的关系。分析结果表明:热带中西太平洋温跃层上界深度、温度具有明显的季节性变化,而温跃层下界深度、温度季节性变化不明显,黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场分布和温跃层季节性变化有关。全年中心渔场的位置分布在温跃层上界深度高值区域,随温跃层上界深度高值区域季节性南北移动。在新几内亚以东纬向区域(5°N~10°S,150°E~170°W)上界深度值全年都在70~100m之间,全年都是延绳钓黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场。中心渔场上界温度多在26℃以上,但是在上界温度超过30℃区域,CPUE值较小。中心渔场主要分布在温跃层下界深度两条高值带之间区域,在温跃层下界深度超过300m和小于150m区域,CPUE值均偏低。中心渔场主要分布在下界温度低于13℃区域,下界温度超过17℃难以形成中心渔场。频次分析和经验累积分布函数计算其适宜温跃层特征参数分布,得出中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼适宜的温跃层上界温度和深度分别是27~29.9℃和70~109m;适宜的温跃层下界温度和深度分别是11~13.9℃和250~299m。文章初步得出中西太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场温跃层各特征参数的适宜分布区间及季节变化特征,为我国金枪鱼实际生产作业提供技术支持。