扩展卡尔曼滤波数据同化试验--基于Lorenz(1960)系统的研究

本文采用Lorenz(1960)系统，在只考虑初始误差及观测误差而不考虑模式误差的情况下，利用扩展卡尔曼滤波(Extended Kalman Filter)数据同化方法进行了数值模拟试验。数值试验的结果表明：扩展卡尔曼滤波数据同化方法对系统状态的估计有较好的改善作用，能有效的抑制估计误差的增长；加大观测频率，可以进一步改善数据同化的效果，使估计误差进一步减小；由于模式误差的存在，系统的不稳定能量会不断的累积，出现了估计误差的异常增长和计算的不连续现象，在模式预报方程中的均值演变方程加人二阶偏差纠错项，对控制估计误差的异常增长，进一步改善数据同化的效果有较明显作用。     

GOALS模式对热带太平洋ENSO年际变化特征的模拟评估

文中重点分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最新发展的全球大气环流谱模式(R42L9)与一全球海洋环流模式(T63L30)耦合形成的全球海洋-大气-陆面气候系统模式(GOALS/LASG)新版本已积分30 a的模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了赤道太平洋海表温度(SST)的年际变化及其纬向传播、赤道东太平洋SST异常与其他洋面SST变化之间的遥相关关系、赤道太平洋浅表层海温的年际变化特征等研究内容.结果表明,COALS模式模拟出了赤道太平洋SST异常出现不规则的年际变化特点;赤道东太平洋SST异常的向西传播过程;赤道太平洋混合层海温变化由西向东、由深层向浅层的传播过程;同时也模拟出了赤道东太平洋SST变化与赤道西太平洋以及与西南太平洋海温之间的反相关关系,与南印度洋和副热带大西洋SST之间的正遥相关关系等实际观测现象.但COALS模式也存在明显的不足,如对赤道东、中太平洋SST异常的年际变化幅度明显偏小,没能模拟出赤道东太平洋的SST变化比赤道中太平洋强的特点;赤道太平洋SST从东向西的传播速度明显比实际观测慢得多,但混合层海温极值变化由西向东的传播速度明显比实际情况快得多;没能模拟出赤道东太平洋SST变化同西北太平洋SST的负相关和北印度洋海温变化的正相关现象,因此也影响了对南亚、东南亚降水年际变化的模拟能力.     

大别山太湖地区榴辉岩峰期变质条件与构造意义

大别山太湖地区曾被作为“冷”、“热”榴辉岩带的交界处所在，我们对大别山太湖地区的进行了1：10000地质填图，并详细研究了该地区榴辉岩的岩相学和矿物成分变化，以及KD值、峰期变质P-T条件。研究表明榴辉岩自南向北可分为三类：①朱家冲型榴辉岩；②大坝型榴辉岩；③金河桥型榴辉岩。其中朱家冲型榴辉岩和金河桥型榴辉岩显示出明显的温度、压力差异，它们形成的P-T条件分别为：P=2．14GPa、T=563℃和P=3．76GPa、T=791℃。大坝型榴辉岩的峰期变质P-T条件差别较大，在柯石英-石英相变线附近徘徊，变质环境相当于高压一超高压过渡环境。朱家冲型榴辉岩与大坝型榴辉岩分别对应于前人所划分的“冷”、“热”榴辉岩，并且两者在峰期，变质温、压条件上是连续变化的，没有明显的温、压间断。因此，我们认为本区所谓的“冷”、“热”榴辉岩带界线是不存在的。     

喜马拉雅中段高压麻粒岩变质作用、地球化学与年代学

研究的高压麻粒岩发现于西藏亚东以北约40公里的(Zherger-La)、出露在藏南拆离系(STDS)主构造面下盘的高喜马拉雅结晶岩系中,是继喜马拉雅东西构造结的Nanga Barbat、Namjag Barwa和喜马拉雅中段Khatra & Marina地区、定结地区发现的榴辉岩或高压麻粒岩之后,在青藏高原上新近发现的高压麻粒岩.该麻粒岩呈岩片被包裹于花岗质片麻岩中.麻粒岩记录了两期变质作用,早期矿物组合为Grt+Cpx+Pl+Qz,属麻粒岩相变质产物,矿物成分分析显示早期矿物组合达到了平衡,并且没有表现成分扩散;后期矿物组合为Hbl+Pl+Bio或Opx+Pl,指示了较高温但相对压力较低的麻粒岩相退变变质作用,矿物成分分析和结构显示了退变作用没有达到变质平衡.显微结构可以观察到多组变质反应Grt+Cpx+Qtz=Opx+Pl,Grt+Qtz=Opx+Pl,Grt+Cpx+L=Hbl+Pl+Bio+Mt,和Cpx+L=Hbl+Mt.根据矿物平衡关系,利用Grt-Cpx温度计和Grt-Cpx-Pl-Qz压力计估算的早期变质作用温压为T=780～850℃,P=12～15kbar,相对应的地温梯度16℃～18℃/km.借用Hbl-Pl温度计和A1tot in Hbl压力计估算的晚期变质作用温压为T=730～760℃;P=4～6kbar,相当的地温梯度为38℃～50℃/km.变质作用P-T演化呈等温降压轨迹,指示麻粒岩地体从增厚(或俯冲)地壳到减薄增温(或部分熔融)地壳,进而被快速剥露地表的构造过程.初步的地球化学结果表明高压麻粒岩原岩可能相当于大陆拉斑玄武岩.麻粒岩锆石SHRIMP年代学有两组相对集中的年龄分别为98±5 Ma(5 spots)和17.0±0.3 Ma(13 spots).高压麻粒岩的两期变质作用的温度都在700℃以上,略高于锆石U-Pb同位素体系计时封闭温度,推断17 Ma是高压麻粒岩变质后发生折返,随高喜马拉雅结晶岩系剥露冷却的年龄;98.4Ma的测年结果被推测是高压麻粒岩原岩形成的年龄.在喜马拉雅山,高压麻粒岩记录了类似增厚地壳到减薄地壳的转变一方面可能是地壳深部作用机制的转变,另一方面,这种机制与喜马拉雅南坡巨大的降雨量和去顶作用有密切关系,意义重大.     

内蒙古二连浩特市—东乌珠穆沁旗半干旱荒漠草原区区域化探方法试验

内蒙古二连浩特市-东乌珠穆沁旗地区属半干旱荒漠草原区.1∶20万区域化探扫面应针对该类景观区微景观特点,选择土壤或水系沉积物测量方法开展工作.经试验确定采样粒级为-5～ 20目;采样密度2个点/km2;采样介质为残坡积物或冲、洪积物.经4个1∶20万图幅的区域化探扫面工作,取得了明显的异常圈定和地质找矿效果,方法技术有效.     

Estimating coefficients of volume compressibility from compression of strata and piezometric changes in a multiaquifer system in west Taiwan

This paper estimates the coefficients of volume compressibility from variation in compressible layer thickness and changes in piezometric heads by using detail ground surface surveys and a multilayer monitoring well at a selected site (Shigang) within the Choshui River alluvial fan in west Taiwan. The paper integrates various types of in situ monitoring tools, including leveling surveys, continuous global position system (GPS) stations, multilevel layer compression and groundwater pressure head-monitoring wells, to investigate the situation and progress of the subsidence problem in the region. The results from the cross-analyses of the measured data show that surface settlement caused by the compression of strata is between the depths of 60 and 210 m where the clayey stratum within 120-180 m was most pronounced and contributes up to 53% of the total compression. The results indicate that the clayey stratum is under normal consolidation. The results also reflect the fact that 20% of settlement contribution comes from the sandy stratum within 90-120 m; the elasto-plastic behavior of this sandy stratum is clear. The coefficients of volume compressibility of the clayey and sandy stratum analysed from the stratum's compression records; they were 6.38×10⁻⁸ and 5.71×10⁻⁹ m²/N, respectively. Ultimately, this parameter estimation would permit to control and predict land subsidence based on change in pressure head which are related to groundwater extraction.     

Transfer of Taiwanese ideas and technology to The Gambia, West Africa: a viable approach to rural development?

The development of Taiwan's agricultural sector contributed significantly to the country's transformation from virtual poverty after World War II to a modern industrial nation. Success resulted from the use of appropriate technologies, developed through an exceptionally close working relationship between government, research and development institutions, extension services and farmers in Taiwan. As part of their overseas development aid programme, the Republic of China on Taiwan has established Technical Missions in those developing countries where it receives political recognition. Among these is The Gambia, West Africa, where one focus of Taiwan's current Technical Mission is the development of women's market gardens. Although the gardens have proved successful, there is doubt as to whether their achievements will be sustained once Taiwan's Technical Mission in The Gambia has ended. Field research in Taiwan and in The Gambia, based largely on participatory techniques, has revealed that the low-tech methods introduced from Taiwan are appropriate for the Gambian environment. However, much depends on whether women participating in the schemes can commit sufficient time and energy to the gardens, as at present this is a limiting factor. The potential of the gardens may also be constrained by a lack of appropriate institutional infrastructure, particularly the scope for profitable disposal of garden produce. A major conclusion of the article is that successful transfer of appropriate technology to The Gambia is likely to be impeded by poorly developed coordination between groups that proved to be key 'players' in the development of agriculture in Taiwan: government, research and development institutions, extension services and producers.     

Impacts of Previous Winter Kuroshio SSTA on Summer Rainfall in China

1. IntroductionAs well known, Kuroshio is a famous and strongwest boundary current in the North Pacific. It trans-fers enormous energy from the low latitudes to themid-high latitudes and releases huge heat flux to theatmosphere above (Hsiung, 1985). The variation ofKuroshio exerts great influence on weather and cli-mate in East Asian.During 1950-60s, Lü (1950, 1964) found that thewestern North Pacific SSTA had a close relation withsummer rainfall in China. In the 1970s, evidencesshowed…     

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南5.0和5.4级地震灾害减轻因素的分析

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南发生了5．0和5．4级地震。地震发生在北天山石场东南高山区内，位于亚马特断裂与斜切天山的博罗科努断裂所夹持断块的南缘。地震仅对石河子南山矿区所属的红沟煤矿、小沟煤矿与沙湾县煤矿等50、60年代建造的部分危房造成了轻微的破坏，大部分地区的房屋基本完好。造成地震灾害减轻的主要原因为多条断裂的隔震作用与居民点位于山区较平缓地带、场地条件较好等因素。     

晋北区中小地震活动与晋冀蒙交界区6级地震的关系

分析了晋北区中小地震(3.0≤ML≤5.0)的活动特征。统计发现,在1989 年山西大同-阳高6.1、1996年内蒙包头6.4和1998年河北张北6.2 级中强地震前1~2 年内晋北地区的中小地震活动年频次有明显的增强-衰减-发震这一特征;震前主震近场区的地震条带活动对主震位置有预示意义,而较远场的地震活动仅反映主震前应力水平的增强。并有震前活动向未来强震区靠近的特征。