Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

框架预应力锚杆边坡支护结构的稳定性分析方法及其 应用

以边坡极限平衡理论及框架预应力锚杆边坡支护结构的圆弧滑动破坏模式为基础,在考虑框架、锚杆对土体边坡稳定性影响的情况下,基于圆弧滑动条分法的思想利用积分法建立了内部稳定性安全系数计算模型和最危险滑移面搜索模型。确定滑移面圆心坐标为几何控制参数,推导了安全系数计算模型中各变量与滑移面圆心坐标之间的函数关系式,从而获得了滑移面几何控制参数与内部稳定性安全系数之间的函数关系。利用网格法对框架预应力锚杆支护结构最危险滑移面的圆心坐标进行动态搜索和求解。最后采用Matlab语言编制了框架预应力锚杆边坡支护结构的稳定性分析程序,并结合工程实例进行了验算,讨论了此种方法的适用条件,结果表明该方法简明适用,较传统的经验分析方法更加合理。     

Preserved paleo-oceanic plateaus in accretionary complexes: Implications for the contributions of the Pacific superplume to global environmental change

We have reinvestigated the mid-Cretaceous plume pulse in relation to paleo-oceanic plateaus from accretionary prisms in the circum-Pacific region, and we have correlated the Pacific superplume activity with catastrophic environmental changes since the Neoproterozoic. The Paleo-oceanic plateaus are dated at 75–150 Ma; they were generated in the Pacific superplume region and are preserved in accretionary prisms. The volcanic edifice composed of both modern and paleo-oceanic plateaus is up to 10.7 × 10⁶ km² in area and 19.1 × 10⁷ km³ in volume. The degassing rate of CO₂ (0.82 − 1.1 × 10¹⁸ mol/m.y.) suggests a significant impact on Cretaceous global warming. The synchronous occurrence of paleo-oceanic plateaus in accretionary complexes indicates that Pacific superplume pulse activities roughly coincided at the Permo-Triassic boundary and the Vendian–Cambrian boundary interval. The CO₂ expelled by the Pacific superplume probably contributed to environmental catastrophes. The initiation of the Pacific superplume contributed to the snowball Earth event near the Vendian–Cambrian boundary; this was one of the most dramatic events in Earth's history. The scale of the Pacific superplume activity roughly corresponds to the scale of drastic environmental change.     

《中国21世纪议程》与西北持续发展

本文概要介绍了我国２１世纪发展白皮－《中国２１世纪议程》;全面列举了国际社会对西北地区第一批优先项目支持的承诺,勾勒了西北地区“可持续发展之路”的轮廓。     

坡地农林复合系统的结构类型与效益分析─以长江三峡库区坡地农业为例

本义认为现代术语的农林复合系统来源于生产实践,体现了农业与林业的有机结合、品种生态和经济的有机结合、产品多样化以及管理科学化4个方面相统一的特点。文章在分析三峡库区农林复合系统的类型结构基础上,提出了农林复合系统可以进行层次结构划分的观点。最后,以典型案例研究方法入手,对1种农林结构类型进行效益分析,结果表明,采用植物篱农林复合坡地系统,是现阶段生产力水平下实现坡地生态经济协调发展的有效途径,值得广泛推广。     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.     

Carbon, sulfur and O2 across the Permian–Triassic boundary

A model for the carbon and sulfur cycles across the Permian–Triassic boundary has been constructed from carbon and sulfur isotopic data. Results indicate a drop in global organic matter burial, the formation of an anoxic deep ocean, and a large drop in atmospheric oxygen over the time span 270 to 240 Ma. Much of these changes were probably due to a drop in terrestrial productivity and preservation and an increase in global aridity.     

Rodent paleofaunas as indicators of climatic change in Europe during the last 125,000 years

This paper presents a quantitative reconstruction of the European late Pleistocene paleoclimate based on 72 rodent assemblages of five sequences from France, Germany and Bulgaria, covering the last interglacial-glacial cycle. They show a pattern of severe changes in temperature, with reduced precipitation during the coldest periods. A tentative correlation between the isotopic and palynological records and the paleotemperature changes is shown. These changes are consistent with variations in atmospheric circulation patterns in response to an expanding-retracting Fennoscandian ice-sheet. They can be attributed to the enhancement-weakening of the Scandinavian-Polar anticyclone and its associated dry winds, the south-north shifting of the North Atlantic Polar Front, and the varying supply of moist air from the Atlantic. Qualitative paleoenvironmental analysis shows broadleaved-deciduous forests in France and Bulgaria during most of the studied period. Taiga and tundra appeared in eastern France during the lower Würm. The German sequence indicates the presence of coniferous forests. These results are broadly consistent with other paleobiological records (mammalian, avian and insect faunas, isotopic record in dental tissue, palynology). The main discrepancies with the paleoclimate inferred from the palynological record are found during the coldest periods and are probably due to the interaction between vegetation, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ levels.     

Erratum “Boundary” in ancient Persian tradition of statehood: an introduction to the origins of the concept of boundary in pre-modern history

Erratum to: GeoJournal 62: 51–58 DOI 10.1007/s10708-005-8562-2 The erroneous version of this article was originally published in GeoJournal 62: 51–58. This amended version corrects the formatting errors which are evident in the original version.Abstract It is universally accepted that the need for defining precise lines of separation and points of contacts between states is the byproduct of the emergence of nation-states and ‘world economy’ in the nineteenth century Europe. Nevertheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that these modern notions are rooted in periods prior to the emergence in Europe of nation-states. There are indications that ancient civilizations were familiar with the notion of ‘state’ in connection with the concepts of territory and boundary. Ancient texts reveal that this basic principle existed in ancient Persian literature in respect of matters of state, territory, and boundary. Similarly, the likelihood exists that these Persian notions could have influenced Roman civilization. It is widely believed that a combination of ancient Greco-Roman and Persian civilizations is a major contributor to what culturally constitutes ‘West’. Later in the Sassanid period the inter-linked notions of state, territory, and boundary developed substantially, coming quite close to their contemporary forms. On the other hand, considering that ‘justice’ was the corner stone of ancient Persian Political philosophy, the idea that ancient␣Iranian spatial arrangement might have contributed to the evolution of the concept of democracy in the West may not be too difficult to contemplate.The online version of the original article can be found at