震后趋势判定技术系统CAAFs震后余震预测效果评价

自2019年正式运行以来,震后趋势判定技术系统CAAFs为震后应急与趋势研判及时提供数据和技术支撑。本文梳理总结CAAFs系统持续4.5年产出的数据,从全国和不同地区两个方面评价系统产出的震后余震预测结果,得到以下三点认识:①震级上限预测(发生某震级以上地震的可能性不大)的正确率大多为90 %及以上,显著优于震级区间预测(存在发生同等大小地震的可能或存在发生某震级左右地震的可能),各分区预测情况差异不大; ②震级区间预测震级普遍比地震实况偏高,实际7日内发生的最大余震震级与预测震级的差值(震级偏差)落入[-0.5,0.5]区间的地震比例约为44 %,落入[-1,1]区间的地震比例约为69 %,越靠近[-0.5,0.5]区间,地震的比例越高; ③震级区间预测中,各分区有一定差异,西南地区优于西北、华南和华北东北三个地区,总的来看4~5级地震预测情况不如其他震级区间,可能与该震级区间内地震的最大余震震级变化范围较大有关。     

TSP在软、硬岩地层中的应用效果分析

介绍了TSP超前预报系统实现预报的基本原理.从基本原理出发分析了TSP对不同岩性地层的适应性问题;通过实例分析了TSP在不同地层中的顸测效果.结果表明当围岩中没有大的不良地质体时,TSP在软岩中的预测效果较差,而在硬岩中预测效果好.     

华北地区中等地震活动非稳态特征及预报效能研究

采用全时空扫描方法在时空强三维轴上识别华北地区的中等地震活动的非稳态震兆信息.结果表明,在地震孕育过程中中等地震活动有由稳态向非稳态演化的特点.非稳态图像不同于传统意义上的空区和条带,其空间分布范围较大,一般出现在震前1年左右.以发生在非稳态图像的非开放、非卸载端点(交汇点)的地震作为标志地震,预测其周围(r=100 km)2年内发生Ms≥5.0地震,预报能力评分R=0.573.     

Analysis of the natural remanent magnetization of rocks by measuring the efficiency ratio through alternating field demagnetization spectra

The REM(AF) method is a new tool for the analysis of the origin and alternating field demagnetization coercivity spectra of the remanent magnetization. We applied this method on precambrian Gila diabase sheets from Arizona in order to identify the high coercivity magnetic carrier, and on artificially shocked Rowley Regis basalt from UK in order to analyze the effect of the shock on the natural remanent magnetization. In the Gila diabase the high coercivity magnetic component was identified to be most likely represented by the acicular magnetite (increase in the efficiency ratio in the high coercivity region). In the Rowley Regis basalt, the REM(AF) analysis revealed that comparing to NRM, the shock produced a different distribution of the AF demagnetization coercivity spectra due to the occurrence of the Shock Remanent Magnetization.     

Study on consumption efficiency of soil water resources in the Yellow River Basin based on regional ET structure

Based on the regional water resources character, the concept of soil water resources is first redefined, and then associated with their transfer relationship in the hydrological cycle, Evapotranspiration (ET)-based consumption structure and consumption efficiency of soil water resources are analyzed. According to ET 's function in productivity, the consumption efficiency of soil water resources is di- vided into three classes: high efficient consumption from vegetation transpiration, low efficient con- sumption from soil evaporation among plants with high vegetation coverage and inefficient consump- tion from soil evaporation among plants with low vegetation coverage and bare soil evaporation. The high efficient and low efficient consumption were further classified as productive consumption. The ineffi- cient consumption is considered non-productive consumption because it is significant in the whole hydrological cycle process. Finally, according to these categories, and employing a WEP-L dis- tributed hydrological model, this paper analyzes the consumption efficiency of soil water resources in the Yel- low River Basin. The results show that there are 2078.89×108 m3 soil water resources in the whole basin. From the viewpoint of consumption structure, the soil water resources are comprised of 381.89×108 m3 transpiration consumption from vegetation and 1697.09×108 m3 evaporation consumption from soil among plants and bare soil. From the viewpoint of consumption efficiency, soil water re- sources are composed of 920.11×108 m3 efficient consumption and 1158.86×108 m3 of inefficient con- sumption. High efficient consumption accounts for 41.5 percent of the total efficient consumption of the whole basin, low efficient for 58.5 percent. Furthermore, consumption efficiency varies by region. Compared with ET from different land use conditions, the whole basin appears to follow the trend of having the greatest proportion of consumption as inefficient consumption, followed by low efficient consumption, and then the least proportion as high efficient consumption. The amount of inefficient consumption in some regions with vegetation is less than in other regions without vegetation. The amount of inefficient consumption in grasslands is much greater than in forestlands. However, the proportion of low efficient consumption is the greatest in crop fields. The amount of high efficient con- sumption in grasslands and forelands is similar to the corresponding low efficient consumption. However, the low efficient consumption in grasslands is larger than in the forelands. Therefore, when adjusting the utilization efficiency of soil water resources, vegetation coverage and plant structure should be modulated in terms of the principle of decreasing inefficient consumption, improving low efficiency ET and increasing high efficiency ET according to area character.     

准噶尔盆地荒漠植物碳同位素组成研究

通过对准噶尔盆地古尔班通古特沙漠南缘17个科、41个属的53种荒漠植物的稳定碳同位素分析,结果显示准噶尔盆地荒漠植物的叶片稳定碳同位素值在-7.77‰~-30.10‰之间变化,其稳定碳同位素比值分布范围较广,C3和C4植物资源丰富。其中,C3植物有34种,δ13C值分布区间为-23.27‰~-30.10‰,平均值为-26.77‰;C4植物有19种,δ13C值的变化范围为-7.77‰～-14.90‰,平均值为-13.04‰。研究区内木本植物和草本植物的δ13C平均值分别为-16.74‰和-19.81‰,说明木本植物的水分利用效率明显高于草本植物,这种现象可能是全球荒漠生态系统的一种共性。但是一年生草本植物的δ13C平均值（-19.54‰）却高于多年生草本植物的δ13C平均值（-20.07‰）,由于植物叶片δ13C可以用来间接指示植物的长期水分利用效率,即δ13C值越大,植物的水分利用效率越高;也就是说在该地区,相对于多年生草本植物而言,一年生草本植物对环境的适应能力较强。     

饵料粒度对玉筋鱼摄食、生长和生态转换效率的影响

在实验室大型玻璃钢水槽中,流水条件下投喂两种不同颗粒大小的卤虫,采用Eggers模型比较了黄海、渤海主要中上层小型鱼类玉筋鱼的摄食、生长和生态转换效率等生态能量学特征.结果表明:投喂颗粒小的幼体卤虫的排空率比投喂颗粒大的成体卤虫的大,分别为0.2136,0.1887.摄食小颗粒幼体卤虫的玉筋鱼的摄食率、生长率和生态转换效率分别为22.53g/(100g·d)(湿质量)或60.14kJ/(100g·d),3.63g/(100g·d)(湿质量)或14.86kJ/(100g·d),16.12%(以湿质量计)或24.70%(以能量计);而摄食大颗粒成体卤虫的玉筋鱼的摄食率、生长率和生态转换效率分别为27.54g/(100g·d)(湿质量)或51.69kJ/(100g·d),4.77g/(100g·d)(湿质量)或19.50(kJ/100g·d),17.31%(以湿质量计)或37.69%(以能量计).摄食成体卤虫的湿重比摄食幼体卤虫的多,而摄食幼体卤虫所含能量比成体卤虫的高;从玉筋鱼的生长情况来看,成体卤虫投喂的效果明显优于幼体卤虫,不管是用湿重还是用能含量来表示,摄食成体卤虫的生长都比摄食幼体的快,摄食成体的生态转化效率也都比摄食幼体的要高.     

对虾、青蛤和江蓠混养的能量收支及转化效率研究

发展虾池生态系统功能,采用围隔实验方法,研究了凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaenus vannamei)、青蛤(Cyclina sinensis)、江蓠(Gracilaria lichevoides)混养生态系统能量收支和能量转换效率。结果表明,实验期间所接受的总太阳辐射能为1 854.4MJ.m-2。各混养处理光合能显著高于对照。混养各处理光能利用率为0.23%~0.36%,随江蓠放养密度的增加而升高,显著高于对虾单养(0.14%)(p<0.05)。各混养处理与对虾单养相比,系统总能转化率分别提高了113.4%,94.2%,116.02%和41.91%,单位净产量耗总能则平均比对虾单养降低62.22%,但各处理饲料能转化率差异不明显(p>0.05)。各处理底泥沉积能量为0.71~1.38MJ,分别占总输出能的3.66%~8.61%,沉积量平均比对虾单养(1.65MJ)降低20.14%。可以看出,江蓠和青蛤混养可以显著提高对虾池光能利用率和投入系统总能的转化效率,降低虾池能量的沉积,进而大幅提高系统能量利用率。     

水平轴潮流能发电装置结构对其水动力性能的影响

为研究水平轴潮流能发电装置结构对其水动力性能的影响,运用格子玻尔兹曼(LBM)方法,建立水平轴潮流能发电装置的数值模拟分析模型,对水轮机在不同尖速比工况下的水动力性能进行模拟。将模拟结果与同工况水池拖曳实验得到的数据相对比,二者捕获能系数误差在2%左右,验证了LBM方法的可行性和准确性。在此基础上利用LBM方法研究机舱和立柱结构对水轮机特性的影响,得到其对水轮机捕获效率的影响规律。