1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空特征及其与降水的关系

采用1979-2016年ECMWF1.5°×1.5°逐月再分析资料及同期37个气象站点的降水资料,利用一元线性回归、累积距平、Kriging及IDW（反距离加权）等方法分析了祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空分布特征、降水转化率空间变化规律以及风场分布规律,并对比分析了中国西部不同地区降水转化率的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量整体呈增加趋势,且季节变化明显。其中夏季是各层大气水汽含量最多的季节,高达329.24 mm,占多年平均大气水汽含量的48.1%。（2）近38 a来,祁连山地区的大气水汽含量呈东南多、西北少的空间分布,且随海拔的升高而逐渐减少,整层大气水汽主要集中在5 000 m以下。（3）祁连山地区的降水转化率从空间上表现出由东向西递减的趋势,说明该地区空中云水资源的开发潜力自东向西逐渐增强,空中云水资源的开发潜力区域差异明显;季风所携带的水汽对其影响区域的降水贡献率较高,西风所携带的水汽则对其影响区域的降水贡献率较低。（4）中国西部地区降水转化率呈向心式递减的趋势,且区域空间波动较大。     

中国房间空气调节器行业节能减排潜力分析

2012年,中国房间空气调节器（空调器）保有量约为3.57亿台,依据抽样调查数据计算得到保有量装机容量,采用各省市夏季平均温度估算超过26℃的时间作为运行时间计算得出年电力消耗约3.28×1011 kW?h,折合碳排放约为318 Mt CO₂当量。由于空调器国内需求量将进一步增长,预计到2030年保有量将达到当前的4～5倍。在电力结构不变情景下,空调器总体能效提高1倍,2030年空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放约为603 Mt CO₂当量。假设空调器总体能效提高1倍、高能效产品消费比例进一步提高并伴随中国能源结构调整,如水电、核电、太阳能等低碳能源比例不断提高,在满足中国空调器需求的前提下,2030年中国空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放可以争取控制在当前的水平。     

Spatial energy efficiency patterns and the coupling relationship with industrial structure:A study on Liaoning Province,China

Using a sample of 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning Province, this study first explored the spatial hierarchy and structural characteristics of energy efficiency from the following three viewpoints: energy technical efficiency based on data envelopment analysis, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and energy utilization efficiency combining the previous two indexes. After measuring and analyzing the advancement, rationality, and concentration of the industrial structure in each city, we made some generalizations about the coupling features of the energy efficiency and industrial structure in Liaoning, using the coupling degree rating model. Some of our conclusions are as follows: (1) The 14 cities differ significantly in their energy efficiency, with Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan, and Jinzhou enjoying the highest energy efficiency. Northwestern Liaoning and other heavy-industrial cities such as Fushun and Benxi belong to low-efficiency and high-consumption areas. (2) In areas with higher efficiency, the spatial patterns of the energy technical efficiency, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and energy utilization efficiency are, respectively, "π"-,"Ⅱ"- and "H"- shaped. Geographically, the energy utilization efficiency shows different trends from east to west and from north to south. Factors such as the binuclear structure of economic development have a major effect on this spatial pattern of energy efficiency. (3) Southeastern Liaoning enjoys a highly advanced industrial structure. Areas with a highly rational industrial structure form an “H” shape, with Shenyang and Dalian at the two poles. The urban agglomerations in middle and southern Liaoning have a highly concentrated industrial structure. (4) Overall, the coupling between energy efficiency and industrial structure is low in Liaoning, except for Shenyang and Dalian at both ends, where the coupling between an advanced industrial structure and energy efficiency is higher than in other cities.     

Sampling efficiency in Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategies: Application in seawater intrusion simulations

The implementation of Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) for the propagation of uncertainty in real-world seawater intrusion (SWI) numerical models often becomes computationally prohibitive due to the large number of deterministic solves needed to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. Previous studies have mostly relied on parallelization and grid computing to decrease the computational time of MCSs. However, another approach which has received less attention in the literature is to decrease the number of deterministic simulations by using more efficient sampling strategies. Sampling efficiency is a measure of the optimality of a sampling strategy. A more efficient sampling strategy requires fewer simulations and less computational time to reach a certain level of accuracy. The efficiency of a sampling strategy is highly related to its space-filling characteristics.This paper illustrates that the use of optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) strategies instead of the widely employed simple random sampling (SRS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) strategies, can significantly improve sampling efficiency and hence decrease the simulation time of MCSs. Nine OLHS strategies are evaluated including: improved Latin hypercube sampling (IHS); optimum Latin hypercube (OLH) sampling; genetic optimum Latin hypercube (GOLH) sampling; three sampling strategies based on the enhanced stochastic evolutionary (ESE) algorithm namely φ_p-ESE which employs the φ_p space-filling criterion, CLD-ESE which utilizes the centered L₂-discrepancy (CLD) space-filling criterion, and SLD-ESE which uses the star L₂-discrepancy (SLD) space-filling criterion; and three sampling strategies based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm namely φ_p-SA which employs the φ_p criterion, CLD-SA which uses the CLD criterion, and SLD-SA which utilizes the SLD criterion. The study applies SRS, LHS and the nine OLHS strategies to MCSs of two synthetic test cases of SWI. The two test cases are the Henry problem and a two-dimensional radial representation of SWI in a circular island. The comparison demonstrates that the CLD-ESE strategy is the most efficient among the evaluated strategies. This paper also demonstrates how the space-filling characteristics of different OLHS designs change with variations in the input arguments of their optimization algorithms.     

农业产业集群创新效率及影响因素——基于山东省寿光蔬菜产业集群的实证分析

创新是当前农业产业集群研究的重要内容,掌握集群创新状况对指导农业产业集群发展具有重要意义。结合实地调研的数据,利用DEA-Tobit两阶段模型,对山东省寿光蔬菜产业集群企业创新效率及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:寿光蔬菜产业集群规模已接近最优状态,综合创新效率处于中等偏上水平,但仍未达到最优状态,主要原因是集群在科研技术投入、创新资源利用配置等方面不足造成的。进一步Tobit回归的影响因素分析发现:企业知识技术吸收扩散能力、政府财政支持力度、企业家创新精神和企业发展的外向性与农业产业集群企业创新效率存在显著的正相关关系,而企业规模对农业产业集群企业创新效率影响并不显著。最后,根据集群创新影响因素分析,提出发展建议。     

小麦水分生产函数及其效益的研究

我国北方地区水资源短缺,有限的降水不足以满足小麦生长所需的水量,为了避免因缺水造成的减产,需要实施灌溉以补充水分。本文讨论了灌水与小麦产量的关系,并以小麦田间试验数据为基础,采用最小二乘法原理,拟合了小麦的水分生产函数模型,通过耗水资料的分析整理,揭示了小麦的水分效应及需水规律。对典型灌溉制度下小麦水分生产函数的分析表明,水资源投入的最佳效益点并非水分利用效率的最高点和产量最高点,小麦灌水效益最佳点的确定原则为边际收益等于边际成本,合理利用小麦灌溉生产函数及其规律,可以实现小麦节水、高产、高效的较好统一。     

Technical change in fisheries

Technical change in fisheries is an under-researched area in resource economics and management. This is surprising, because technical progress is the main driver of the development in fishing power and capacity. This article reviews the recent research and development in technology that have occurred in fisheries. New policy implications of introducing technical change into the standard bioeconomic model are illustrated. Bycatch saving technical change is critical to bycatch reduction and ecosystem based fisheries management, and optimal policies cost-effectively reduce bycatch, create incentives to induce bycatch saving technical change, and establish technology policy for research and development.     

改性黏土对褐潮生物种Aureococcus anophagefferens的去除研究

褐潮是一种由微微型藻引发的藻华,已连续4年在渤海海域暴发,给当地带来巨大的经济损失。目前,在褐潮尚不能有效预防、预控情况下,如何控制和减少其对生态环境和沿海经济带来的危害,成为一个急需解决的问题。利用改性黏土消除藻华是一种快速有效、并得以多次现场成功应用的方法。考察比较了多种不同产地、不同类型的黏土及其改性后对褐潮生物种Aureococcus anophagef ferens(抑食金球藻)的去除效果,选取5种典型的黏土作为主要的实验材料,开展了不同条件下黏土及其改性后对A. anophagef ferens去除效率的影响研究。实验发现,因A. anophagef ferens个体微小、藻华时密度大,相同用量的黏土或改性黏土对其去除效率低于常见的硅藻、甲藻生物;不同类型黏土对其去除效率有影响,高岭土的去除效率高于蒙脱土;而黏土改性后对A. anophagef ferens的去除效率提高3倍以上。在此基础上,还考察分析了黏土粒径、分散介质等因素对A. anophagef ferens去除效率的影响,为进一步研发安全、高效的褐潮应急消除材料做了有益探索。     

盐度对近江牡蛎耗氧率、排氨率、O:N 和吸收率的影响

以半现场流水槽法研究了不同盐度(5、10、15、20、25、30、35)对近江牡蛎(Crassostrea hongkongensis)耗氧率、排氨率、O:N、吸收率的影响,并测定了盐度为20条件下牡蛎耗氧率和排氨率的周日变化.结果表明,近江牡蛎耗氧率、排氨率、O:N先随着盐度的升高而下降,在20左右降到最低,随着盐度继续上升,又升高;而近江牡蛎的吸收率先随着盐度的升高而升高,在20左右达到最高,然后随盐度升高而下降.根据数据得出耗氧率与盐度的拟合方程: y=0.0033x2-0.1161x+1.5523, R2=0.9018;排氨率与盐度:y=0.0001x2-0.0041x+0.0871, R2=0.9889;O:N与盐度:y=0.0016x3-0.0782x2+0.9051x+10.818, R2=0.955;吸收率与盐度: y=-0.0011x2+0.0399x+0.4393.R2=0.9453.一日内,8时、14时、19时、22时4个时间点,近江牡蛎耗氧率和排氨率变化较大,在14时最大,表明该时点其代谢活动最强.