岩石圈深层扩张与青藏高原隆升——岩石圈深层扩张模式初论

在综述有关青藏高原隆升的各种观点和模式后,依据青藏高原新生代变形和岩石圈组构特征,提出了高原隆升的新的动力学模式——岩石圈深层扩张模式。其基本观点是强调由于印度板块向欧亚板块的强烈俯冲造成岩石圈组构和变形的不均一性及岩石圈中存在的碰撞→收缩(重力不均衡)→伸展(均衡调整)的正向转变和由伸展→收缩的逆向转变的反复交替。据此将青藏高原的造山带划分为三种成因类型:喜马拉雅型、冈底斯型和昆仑型。     

Converting Brazil's pastures to cropland: An alternative way to meet sugarcane demand and to spare forestlands

Brazil seeks to rapidly increase its agricultural production to meet future demands, especially for sugarcane, which is an agricultural commodity and a biofuel source. In this paper, we explore how to achieve this increase without compromising existing forestlands. We propose that it is possible to substantially expand sugarcane production in Brazil while avoiding further environmental losses and the indirect land use changes often associated with them, such as deforestation. This task could be accomplished by converting existing pasturelands with agricultural potential into cropland. A great deal of pastureland exists in Brazil. Thus, we addressed the following questions in this study: (1) where are the most suitable pasturelands for sugarcane located geographically and (2) what potential do these pasturelands have for sugarcane production regarding their physical suitability and other significant factors, such as infrastructure availability and socioeconomic factors. We conducted a land suitability analysis using a spatial location model based on multicriteria decision-making and geographic information systems (GIS) to identify the cultivated pasturelands most suitable for conversion to sugarcane production in Brazil. “What if” scenarios were built to determine how changes in the subjectively derived weights of the priority criteria would modify the spatial distribution of the suitability classes relative to the MCDA model and demonstrate the robustness of the crop suitability assessment. The most suitable pastureland areas for conversion to sugarcane production were predominantly located in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Pará. These zones have large contiguous areas of pasture with moderate and high agricultural potentials for sugarcane production. The total estimated area of cultivated pasturelands with moderate or high suitability for sugarcane production was 50 million hectares, which is much larger than the area currently used for sugarcane production in Brazil.     

大都市区城市扩展模型- 以北京城市扩展模拟为例

在分析大都市区城市扩展特征的基础上,从宏观外部约束性因素和局部城市单元自身扩展能力变化共同作用影响城市发展演变的角度,构建了一个模拟和预测大都市区城市发展演变过程的城市扩展模型 (City Expanding Model in Metropolitan Area; CEM)。首先对北京1975~1997年的城市发展过程进行模拟重建,然后在此基础上从城镇用地数量最优和位置最佳相结合的角度对北京2005~2015年的城市发展格局进行了预测。结果表明,在对各种影响因素进行严格标准化并利用自适应Monte-Carlo方法多次模拟确定最佳影响权重的基础上,该模型可以在一定程度上反映城市发展,尤其是大都市区城市发展演变的特征和规律。     

动力刚度计算方法-"盐溶”法-的改进

本文首先讨论了采用盐溶法（damping-solvent extraction method)争动力刚度时，在某些频率点（奇点）产生误差的原因；提出一种多次逼近的改进办法，提高了计算精度。在一般情况下，动力刚度的奇点是未知的。本文建议的逼近技术可用于校核这一方法所获得的结果。     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于珞珈一号与DMSP/OLS数据的辽宁省城市空间扩张分析

基于珞珈一号和DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据,提取辽宁省城市空间用地信息并监测分析了2003—2018年城市空间扩张特征。结果表明:1)利用辽宁省DMSP/OLS长时间序列夜间灯光数据提出了一种适合校正长时间序列DMSP/OLS数据的校正方法,提高了数据的连续性和可对比性;2)弥补了统计数据在空间属性的不足,消除了过去单纯依靠统计数据分析城市空间扩张的弊端,为其他省市分析城市扩张提供新的遥感监测分析方法;3)在2003—2018年间,辽宁省城市空间扩张存在城市空间扩张与南方省份相比发展比较缓慢及协调性欠佳等问题。     

黄淮海平原农区典型村庄用地扩展及其动力机制

以地处黄淮海平原农区的禹城市伦镇赵庄村为典型案例,利用高分辨率航空遥感数据为基本信息源,结合村庄逐户调查数据,通过土地利用分类与制图,定量研究典型村庄用地格局特征、扩展模式及其动力机制。结果表明:赵庄村土地利用呈"耕地—作业空间—居住空间"的圈层式空间格局。2008年村庄用地规模比1967年增加了1.26倍,主要表现为宅基地的扩展和打谷场用地增长,1985~1990年村庄用地扩展速度最快,村庄用地在空间上向西和向南方向扩展显著。村庄用地扩展主要表现为渐进式蔓延扩展、突变式非地扩展和填充式补充扩展三个阶段。农户居住需求增长与农业生产规模扩大是村庄用地扩展的内生动力,村庄内部条件与外围环境的巨大反差是村庄用地向外扩展的外部环境动力,农户收入增长为村庄用地扩展提供了经济基础,而村庄土地规划缺失与管理缺位使村庄用地扩展失去约束力,这些因素相互作用,共同驱动村庄用地扩展。最后,针对村庄用地扩展存在的问题,提出了促进村庄土地可持续利用的对策建议。     

城市扩展元胞自动机多结构卷积神经网络模型

传统的城市扩展元胞自动机(CA)模型是基于单个元胞的变量信息挖掘来构建转换规则的。针对这一问题,本文基于多结构卷积神经网络提出从区域特征出发且顾及区域多尺度特征挖掘转换规则的城市扩展元胞自动机模型(MSCNN-CA),并以武汉主城区和上海浦东新区为例,模拟了两个试验区2005—2015年期间城市扩展过程。模型验证表明:与逻辑回归和神经网络相比,本文构建的3个单一结构的卷积神经网络元胞自动机(CNN-CA)模型在4个指标(Kappa系数、FoM(figure of merit)值、命中率(h)和错误率(m))上都有不同程度的提高。特别是FoM指数,在武汉主城区提高了23.3%～29.4%,在上海浦东新区提高了20.3%～28.5%。此外,MSCNN-CA模型与3个单一结构的CNN-CA模型相比,在各个指标上也有所改善,FoM指数在武汉主城区提高了0.8%～4.8%,上海浦东新区提高了2.8%～7.8%。两个试验区的模拟结果表明:相比传统CA模型,基于多结构卷积神经网络的城市扩展元胞自动机模型(MSCNN-CA)能够有效提高城市扩展模拟的精度,更真实地反映城市扩展空间演变过程。相比单结构的...     

A new discovery of transition rules for cellular automata by using cuckoo search algorithm

This paper presents an intelligent approach to discover transition rules for cellular automata (CA) by using cuckoo search (CS) algorithm. CS algorithm is a novel evolutionary search algorithm for solving optimization problems by simulating breeding behavior of parasitic cuckoos. Each cuckoo searches the best upper and lower thresholds for each attribute as a zone. When the zones of all attributes are connected by the operator ‘And’ and linked with a cell status value, one CS-based transition rule is formed by using the explicit expression of ‘if-then’. With two distinct advantages of efficient random walk of Lévy flights and balanced mixing, CS algorithm performs well in both local search and guaranteed global convergence. Furthermore, the CA model with transition rules derived by CS algorithm (CS-CA) has been applied to simulate the urban expansion of Nanjing City, China. The simulation produces encouraging results, in terms of numeric accuracy and spatial distribution, in agreement with the actual patterns. Preliminary results suggest that this CS approach is well suitable for discovering reliable transition rules. The model validation and comparison show that the CS-CA model gets a higher accuracy than NULL, BCO-CA, PSO-CA, and ACO-CA models. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of applying CS algorithm to discover transition rules of CA for simulating geographical systems.     

Reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulent mixing: a one-dimensional-turbulence study

We study the problem of reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence in the Boussinesq framework using one-dimensional-turbulence (ODT) simulations. In this problem a reaction zone between overlying heavy/cold reactants and underlying light/hot products moves against gravity. First, we show that ODT results for global quantities in non-reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence are within those from direct numerical simulations (DNS). This comparison give us confidence in using ODT to study unexplored flow regimes in the reactive case. Then, we show how ODT predicts an early stage of reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence that behaves similarly to the non-reactive case, as observed in previous DNS. More importantly, ODT indicates a later stage where the growth of the reaction zone reduces considerably. The present work can be seen as a step towards the study of supernova flames with ODT.