新疆地区现今地壳形变特征与地震活动分析

新疆地区GPS区域站1999—2007年、 2009—2011年观测资料分析结果表明, 该地区水平运动速率分区性明显; 2011年6月以来该地区中强地震增强. 该文在分析区域站水平运动速率特征的基础上, 对2011年1月—2012年3月20个GPS连续观测站基线变化时间序列进行了分析. 结果表明, 各观测站坐标变化量在2011年4月后整体上变大, 新疆地区地壳运动增强, 但具体到不同的山区和盆地, 基线变化趋势各异． 其中, 塔里木盆地和准噶尔盆地内部变形相对较小, 主要变化发生在天山中南部, 出现明显的南北向挤压缩短．     

Energy balance and evaporation loss of an agricultural reservoir in a semi‐arid climate (south‐eastern Spain)

A typical agricultural water reservoir (AWR) of 2400 m² area and 5 m depth, located in a semi‐arid area (southern Spain), was surveyed on a daily basis for 1 year. The annual evaporation flux was 102·7 W m^?2, equivalent to an evaporated water depth of 1310 mm year^?1. The heat storage rate G exhibited a clear annual cycle with a peak gain in April (G ～ 45 W m^?2) and a peak loss in November (G ～ 40 W m^?2), leading to a marked annual hysteretic trend when evaporation (λE) was related to net radiation (R_n). λE was strongly correlated with the available energy A, representing 91% of the annual AWR energy loss. The sensible heat flux H accounted for the remaining 9%, leading to an annual Bowen ratio in the order of 0·10. The equilibrium and advective evaporation terms of the Penman formula represented 76 and 24%, respectively, of the total evaporation, corresponding to a annual value of the Priestley–Taylor (P–T) coefficient (α) of 1·32. The P–T coefficient presented a clear seasonal pattern, with a minimum of 1·23 (July) and a maximum of 1·65 (December), indicating that, during periods of limited available energy, AWR evaporation increased above the potential evaporation as a result of the advection process. Overall, the results stressed that accurate prediction of monthly evaporation by means of the P–T formula requires accounting for both the annual cycle of storage and the advective component. Some alternative approaches to estimating R_n, G and α are proposed and discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GPS速度场的四川地区1999～2018年应变场特征演化分析

基于1999～2018年GPS水平运动速度场数据,解算并分析了四川“Y”形构造区各周期网格速度场、地壳应变率场,并讨论了近20年尺度的地壳应变场演化过程。研究表明：1）2008年汶川地震前1999～2007期GPS速度场相对稳定,整体“Y”型构造区地壳运动变化不大,但汶川地震后龙门山断裂带发生较大变化,由4.0 mm/a增至10.0 mm/a。2）1999～2007年,整个四川“Y”型构造区应变场演化特征微弱,而汶川地震之后的两个周期,最大剪应变自龙门山山前断裂向西到汶川一带,形成了由高到低、平行于龙门山断裂带走向的高密度梯度带。龙门山断裂带以ES或EES向的主压应变为主,其量值变化范围为 5.0×10-8 /a～12.0×10-8 /a;鲜水河断裂由震前主拉应变,改为震后近EW向的主压应变特征。面膨胀结果则显示龙门山断裂带由震前低密度梯度带瞬间变为平行于龙门山断裂带走向的高密度变化区。3）2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震是最为重要的时刻分割点。近20年的应变率场变化,更似一个“时间—地壳构造运动”的大轮回,目前四川“Y”型构造区整体处于2008年汶川地震前较为稳定的活动周期。龙门山断裂带仍值得我们做出更为深入的研究。     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

融合海域多源重力数据的正则化点质量方法

泰勒级数展开是实施位场向下延拓解算的主要方法之一。该方法的有效性主要取决于位场延拓参量各阶垂向（或径向）偏导数的求取精度及其可靠性。为了避免使用封闭解析核函数在球边界面出现奇异性带来的不确定性问题,依据各类重力观测经滤波处理后均表现为一类有限频谱带宽信号的特点,提出将地球外部重力异常泊松积分式的核函数表示为球谐级数展开式,并将其截断为与重力观测值频谱范围相一致的带限求和式,进而通过直接求导方法,推导得到一组与带限核函数相对应的重力异常高阶径向导数带限计算公式,同时对该组公式进行了实用性改化,并将其应用于重力异常向下延拓泰勒级数展开式计算。使用超高阶地球位模型EGM2008设计两个阶段的数值计算检验方案,分别对重力异常高阶径向偏导数带限模型及其泰勒级数展开向下延拓模型的计算精度进行了检核评估,表明新模型具有良好的可靠性和有效性,在解算稳定性和计算精度两个方面都优于其他同类模型。

     

迭代扩展卡尔曼滤波用于实时GPS数据处理

标准的卡尔曼滤波可以扩展到非线性模型,即将泰勒公式应用于状态方程和观测方程,得到扩展卡尔曼滤波公式。首先推导了计算公式,研究了迭代计算方法,并将其用于GPS数据的实时处理。     

Morphodynamics of a 1000‐year flood in the Kamp River,Austria, and impacts on floodplain morphology

This paper investigates the impact of a 1000‐year flood in August 2002 on floodplains and valley morphology of an Austrian mixed alluvial bed rock river. Discharges with a recurrence interval between 500 and 2000 years caused distinctive overbank scouring and material deposition in the floodplains. After the 1000‐year flood, those morphologically affected areas were at random intervals documented over the whole longitudinal profile. In addition to overbank erosion in curved sections (cut‐offs), the river bed locally widened, floodplain stripping occurred and local overbank scours were documented along straight parts of the river. A hydrodynamic‐numerical model, combined with field measurements, was used to analyse the cause of these erosional landforms. Based on the modelled hydraulic conditions for a one‐year flood (30–78 m³ s^–1) and the catastrophic 2002 event (700–800 m³ s^–1), the numerical results allowed a cause‐effect study with 19 parameters. Deterministic and statistical analysis (ANOVA, discriminant analysis) showed that the morphodynamic effects of the 2002 flood were influenced by the variability of valley morphology of the Kamp River, which led partially to supercritical flow during flood constriction. These processes were in some cases also anthropogenically influenced. Lateral constriction and expansion of the valley geometry over short distances led to scouring and aggradation within the inundated areas during the event. These morphological features were therefore responsible for the elongated scour holes in the floodplains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广西沿海地壳运动趋势及对环境的影响

人类生存环境的变化是人类共同关心的环境问题之一,最直接影响环境变化的自然因素有气候变化、海平面和陆地的升降等,通过对有关广西沿海海平面和地壳运动资料的研究,初步分析了地壳运动对沿海地区产生的不良环境变化。