A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

浅层地震勘探在安阳市地震小区划中的应用

浅层地震勘探是城市地震小区划中不可缺少的重要勘探手段之一。本文介绍了浅层地震勘探在安阳地震小区划中的应用实例,着重论述不同地震地质条件下采取灵活多变的技术措施,获得明显的地质效果。     

巴颜喀拉块体地壳结构多样性探测

青藏高原内部地壳岩性的改造、岩性随深度变化及形变构造是探索研究地壳增厚、物质运动问题的关键.巴颜喀拉块体位于青藏高原中北部,地域广袤,通过对块体内中、东部不同区域的深地震广角反射/折射震相的综合分析,利用反射率理论地震图方法对不同性质震相走时及振幅特征进行细致的模拟计算,进一步研究巴颜喀拉块体内部不同区域地壳精细结构.结果显示：巴颜喀拉块体地壳厚度50~60 km、整体向西逐渐增厚,结晶地壳平均速度6.07~6.18 km·s-1、岩层速度大幅降低,壳内多强反射界面结构、但不同区域差异明显;东部若尔盖盆地地壳介质速度整体低速、壳幔边界较为清晰;中部玉树—玛多段下部地壳发现约6.8 km·s-1的"高速度"介质结构,壳幔边界不清、被改造为2~4 km厚的高速度梯度层,显示了巴颜喀拉块体内部地壳增厚、介质岩性结构被改造的差异性.地壳内部多组强反射、低视速度走时震相揭示了介质岩性的低速破碎、弱化蠕变以及可能的壳内解耦构造.局部地区下地壳的高视速度震相特征显示了青藏高原地壳改造增厚大背景下可能存在稳定的"原始地壳"结构残留或是与上地幔物质的浸入交流.巴颜喀拉块体内不同区域地壳增厚、岩性结构、结晶基底及壳幔边界性质被改造的多样性为深入认识青藏高原地壳形变及动力学过程带来新的启迪.     

Seismic performance of a 3D full‐scale high‐ductile steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame—Part II: Test results and analytical validation

This paper presents the results of a multi‐level pseudo‐dynamic seismic test program that was performed to assess the performance of a full‐scale three‐bay, two‐storey steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame built with partially encased composite columns and partial‐strength beam‐to‐column joints. The system was designed to develop a ductile response in the joint components of beam‐to‐column joints including flexural yielding of beam end plates and shear yielding of the column web panel zone. The ground motion producing the damageability limit state interstorey drift caused minor damage while the ultimate limit state ground motion level entailed column web panel yielding, connection yielding and plastic hinging at the column base connections. The earthquake level chosen to approach the collapse limit state induced more damage and was accompanied by further column web panel yielding, connection yielding and inelastic phenomena at column base connections without local buckling. During the final quasi‐static cyclic test with stepwise increasing displacement–amplitudes up to an interstorey drift angle of 4.6%, the behaviour was ductile although cracking of beam‐to‐end‐plate welds was observed. Correlations with numerical simulations taking into account the inelastic cyclic response of beam‐to‐column and column base joints are also presented in the paper together. Inelastic static pushover and time history analysis procedures are used to estimate the structural behaviour and overstrength factors of the structural system under study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Imaging Offsets in the Moho: Synthetic Tests using Gaussian Beams with Teleseismic Waves

We carry out a sequence of numerical tests to understand conditions under which rapid changes in crustal thickness can be reliably imaged by teleseismic body waves. Using the finite-difference method over a 2-D grid, we compute synthetic seismograms resulting from a planar P-wavefield incident below the grid. We then image the Moho using a migration scheme based on the Gaussian beam representation of the wavefield. The use of Gaussian beams for the downward propagation of the wavefield is particularly advantageous in certain geologically critical cases such as overthrusting of continental lithosphere, resulting in the juxtaposition of high-velocity mantle material over crustal rocks. In contrast to ray-based methods, Gaussian beam migration requires no special treatment to handle such heterogeneities. Our results suggest that with adequate station spacing and signal-to-noise ratios, offsets of the Moho, on the order of 10 km in height, can be reliably imaged beneath thickened crust at depths of about 50 km. Furthermore, even sharp corners and edges are faithfully imaged when precise values of seismic wave speeds are available. Our tests also demonstrate that flexibility in choices of different types of seismic phases is important, because any single phase has trade-offs in issues such as spatial resolution, array aperture, and amplitude of signals.     

中、强震数字记录波形及震相特征分析

本文从地质构造、波列特征、P波初动、S-P到时差、主要震相、最大振幅、震中距等方面着手对沈阳台记录到的中、强震进行分析,力求归纳出国内和国外不同区域的波形和震相特征。     

基于分层模式的随钻地震数据处理软件系统体系结构研究

针对目前国内随钻地震数据处理技术研究的需求,提出了基于分层模式的随钻地震资料处理集成平台体系结构,依次针对框架内的数据存储和服务层、应用服务层、执行控制层和用户界面层等每层的主要功能进行了界定和说明,并给出系统实现。该系统集资料处理、数据管理、可视化于一体,既满足常规室内资料处理的需求,也适用于钻井现场的实时处理,对现场监控钻探过程,及时调整施工方案具有意义。     

地震相和测井相联合预测火山岩相分布特征研究

以火山岩的基本地质特征、测井特征与测井相及其地震相特征与地震相分类为基础,依据测井相所建立的火山岩相模式,时地震相进行标定,形成由火山岩相、测井相和地震相组成的三相技术.该技术建立起三相之间的对应关系,以揭示火山岩相空间展布规律及变化特征.将三相技术应用于某盆地北部地区的营城组火山岩相研究.把营城组一段的地震相转换成火山岩相,得到火山岩相的平面分布,有效地预测出某盆地北部地区营城组一段火山岩的空间展布规律和火山岩储层有利相带.钻井证实:火山岩相之通道相岩石的物性最好,侵出相和爆发相次之,火山沉积相最差;火山岩相以火山颈岩物性最好,溢流相顶部次之.     

A response‐based decoupling criterion for multiply‐supported secondary systems

It is often infeasible to carry out coupled analyses of multiply‐supported secondary systems for earthquake excitations. ‘Approximate’ decoupled analyses are then resorted to, unless the response errors due to those are significantly high. This study proposes a decoupling criterion to identify such cases where these errors are likely to be larger than an acceptable level. The proposed criterion is based on the errors in the primary system response due to decoupling and has been obtained by assuming (i) the input excitation to be an ideal white noise process, (ii) cross‐modal correlation to be negligible, and (iii) the combined system to be classically damped. It uses the modal properties of the undamped combined system, and therefore, a perturbation approach has been formulated to determine the combined system properties in case of light to moderately heavy secondary systems. A numerical study has been carried out to illustrate the accuracy achieved with the proposed perturbation formulation. The proposed decoupling criterion has been validated with the help of two example primary‐secondary systems and four example excitation processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.