The excitation mechanism of the interstellar 6.7 GHz methanol maser

We notice that the second kind of astronomical methanol maser with strong emission always coexists at both 6.7 GHz and 12.2 GHz and in association with compact H II regions and we are led to propose a new excitation mechanism —maser amplification of the 6.7 GHz maser wothout population inversion. We show that this mechanism is compatible with the astronomical conditions and that it and other mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, rather it may serve as a useful complement.     

南极长城站地区气象要素的中期振荡特征

本文用多维谱分析的方法研究了1985年1月-1987年12月南极长城站地面气象要素的谱特征。该地区的气象要素与北半球一样,也普遍存在3-5天、准一周、准二周和3-4周振荡周期。在长城站所在的乔治王岛地区,从地面到平流层中下部,气压系统都存在着显著的准二周振荡,这种振荡是由上往下传播的。无论冬、夏季,准二周和准一周振荡都是由西往东传播的,而扰动的南北传播方向则与季节及振荡周期长度有关。南极地区的中期振荡特征与500hPa极地涡旋的活动和强度变化有密切关系。     

致密星的X射线辐射时延现象

能谱仅反映了高能天体辐射的部分性质，而高能X射线辐射的时变可以反映致密天体的动态性质。因此，在构造高能辐射的理论模型时，既要考虑X辐射的能谱性质，也要考虑其时变性质。特别对高能天体X辐射的快速光变，一般认为其发生在致密天体附近，致密天体快速光变的研究可以揭示出致密天体附近的物理性质，因此，时变可以对X辐射模型给以很强的限制。X射线源不同能量光子到达观测者的时间差称为X射线辐射的时延。介绍了高能X辐射时变中的时延分析方法及其最新发展，综述了致密双星系统中黑洞侯选林和中子星的时延现象，并简单介绍了为解释这些现象所发展的模型，以及时延对模型的限制。     

Linking the northern hemisphere sea-ice reduction trend and the quasi-decadal arctic sea-ice oscillation

The nature of the reduction trend and quasi-decadal oscillation in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent is investigated. The trend and oscillation that seem to be two separate phenomena have been found in data. This study examines a hypothesis that the Arctic sea-ice reduction trend in the last three decades amplified the quasi-decadal Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO) due to a positive ice/ocean-albedo feedback, based on data analysis and a conceptual model proposed by Ikeda et al. The theoretical, conceptual model predicts that the quasi-decadal oscillation is amplified by the thinning sea-ice, leading to the ASIO, which is driven by the strong positive feedback between the atmosphere and ice-ocean systems. Such oscillation is predicted to be out-of-phase between the Arctic Basin and the Nordic Seas with a phase difference of 3/4, with the Nordic Seas leading the Arctic. The wavelet analysis of the sea ice data reveals that the quasi-decadal ASIO occurred actively since the 1970s following the trend starting in the 1960s (i.e., as sea-ice became thinner and thinner), as the atmosphere experienced quasi-decadal oscillations during the last century. The wavelet analysis also confirms the prediction of such out-of-phase feature between these two basins, which varied from 0.62 in 1960 to 0.25 in 1995. Furthermore, a coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was used to simulate two scenarios, one without the greenhouse gas warming and the other having realistic atmospheric forcing along with the warming that leads to sea-ice reduction trend. The quasi-decadal ASIO is excited in the latter case compared to the no-warming case. The wavelet analyses of the simulated ice volume were also conducted to derive decadal ASIO and similar phase relationship between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. An independent data source was used to confirm such decadal oscillation in the upper layer (or freshwater) thickness, which is consistent with the model simulation. A modified feedback loop for the sea-ice trend and ASIO was proposed based on the previous one by Mysak and Venegas and the ice/albedo and cloud/albedo feedabcks, which are responsible for the sea ice reduction trend.     

淮河流域5～6月降水的年际及年代际变化

对淮河流域降水异常进行分析对于预测黄海绿潮具有重要意义。选取淮河流域10个站,长江流域15个站,通过对国家气象信息中心1951~2011年的逐月降水数据进行分析,研究淮河流域和长江流域5~6月平均降水异常。2000~2010年,淮河流域5~6月降水呈现增加趋势,与长江流域降水呈反位相变化。分别对淮河流域5~6月平均降水异常与印度洋偶极子指数(Dipole Mode Index,DMI),以及太平洋年代际振荡(the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)指数做相关性分析,结果表明:淮河流域5~6月平均降水异常与6个月前的DMI指数达到最大正相关,与20个月前的北太平洋(20°N以北)SST呈现明显的负相关,与PDO指数达到最大负相关。这表明,PDO、DMI指数对淮河流域5~6月降水异常的年代际、年际变化具有明显的指示作用。     

Modulation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Intraseasonal Oscillation of the ITCZ: A Statistical Analysis

The present study investigates modulation of western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclone(TC) genesis in relation to different phases of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of ITCZ convection during May to October in the period 1979-2008.The phases of the ITCZ ISO were determined based on 30-80-day filtered OLR anomalies averaged over the region(5-20 N,120-150 E).The number of TCs during the active phases was nearly three times more than during the inactive phases.The active(inactive) phases of ISO were characterized by low-level cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation anomalies,higher(lower) midlevel relative humidity anomalies,and larger(smaller) vertical gradient anomalies of relative vorticity associated with enhanced(weakened) ITCZ convection anomalies.During the active phases,TCs tended to form in the center of the ITCZ region.Barotropic conversion from the low-level mean flow is suggested to be the major energy source for TC formation.The energy conversion mainly depended on the zonal and meridional gradients of the zonal flow during the active phases.However,barotropic conversion weakened greatly during the inactive phases.The relationship between the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity and low-level zonal flow indicates that the sign of the absolute vorticity gradient tends to be reversed during the two phases,whereas the same sign between zonal flow and the absolute vorticity gradient is more easily satisfied in the active phases.Thus,the barotropic instability of low-level zonal flow might be an important mechanism for TC formation over the WNP during the active phases of ISO.     

东北冷涡活动的季节内振荡特征及其影响

东北冷涡是造成我国东北地区低温冷害、持续性阴雨和突发性强对流的重要天气系统.利用1979～2009年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和中国气象科学研究院提供的中国区域高分辨率格点降水资料,定义了一个客观描述东北冷涡活动的指数 (NECVI),并基于该指数分析了东北冷涡活动的低频特征及其与相关环流和降水的关系.结果表明,东北冷涡活动具有显著的10～30天振荡周期.与东北冷涡活动相关的大气环流的10～30天振荡和我国东部夏季降水异常具有明显的锁相关系,对雨带的位置起着重要的调制作用,在东北冷涡及其相关低频环流由西北向东南的移动过程中,我国东部也经历一次由北至南的降水过程.本文还进一步讨论了东北冷涡的低频活动与中高纬大气环流遥相关型的关系.与东北冷涡相联系的低频环流是夏季低频欧亚 (EU) 型遥相关波列的一部分,低频欧亚型 (EU型) 与东亚/太平型 (EAP型) 遥相关波列在东亚地区交汇,并通过波列之间的相互作用影响东北冷涡低频系统的移向和移速,进而影响中国东部降水的位置与维持时间.因而前期EU型和EAP型低频波列的发展情况可能预示着后期中国东部各个区域降水的演变.本文研究结果将为提高我国东部强降水的1～2周延伸期天气预报提供参考.     

西北太平洋低频振荡对热带气旋生成的动力作用及其物理机制

利用全球再分析资料以及美国联合台风预报中心的热带气旋(TC)数据, 从动力和能量转换方面深入分析了西北太平洋上空30～60天大气低频振荡(MJO)对西北太平洋区域TC生成的调制作用。研究结果表明, 当西北太平洋西侧为MJO的西风位相所控制时, MJO通过纬向风的辐合作用使得在辐合区传播的波动发生波数增加, 波长减短的结构改变, 从而触发较大尺度波动向天气尺度波动的演变; 西风位相期间纬向风的纬向辐合与经向切变可以使得低频波动动能向高频波动的转换得到加强, 从而使得在此区域TC生成的数量明显偏多。相反, 当西北太平洋西侧为MJO的东风位相时, TC生成的数量得到抑制。此外, 随着西风位相中西风的加强(东风位相中东风的加强), TC的生成概率将得到增加 (减少)。但是, 在西北太平洋东侧海域, MJO对TC活动的调制作用要减弱许多。对MJO活动年际变化的研究表明, 在西太暖池处于暖状态年时, 西北太平洋西侧的MJO活动频繁, 西风位相活跃, 从而有利于此区域TC的生成, 而冷年的情况正好相反。     

2007年淮河强降水时期低频环流特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及中国气象台站降水资料,研究了2007年夏季淮河流域强降水的低频振荡及其环流特征。结果表明,2007年夏季淮河流域强降水低频振荡的主要周期是10 25天。淮河流域降水强弱与对应低频周期存在联系,降水主要发生在低频周期的正位相时期,而在负位相时期结束或明显减弱。降水的低频变化一方面与副热带高压和南亚高压的低频变化有关,另一方面还受到中高纬度冷空气低频变化的影响。在低频周期的峰值位相,对流层高层出现的低频反气旋使南亚高压偏东,脊线偏北,并有利于西太平洋副热带高压向更西、更北的方向发展,整个对流层垂直方向上有低频的上升运动。中高纬地区出现大片正位势涡度,冷空气的低频活动显著偏强,南下侵入到中国淮河流域的冷空气较多,形成有利于淮河流域强降水的环流场。相反,在低频周期的谷值位相,对流层高层出现的低频气旋使南亚高压偏西,脊线偏南,不利于西太平洋副热带高压向更西、更北的方向发展,整个对流层垂直方向上有低频的下沉运动。高纬度冷空气的低频活动偏弱,南下侵入到中国淮河流域的冷空气也较少,最终形成不利于淮河流域强降水的环流场。