Modelling net erosion responses to enviroclimatic changes recorded upon multisecular timescales

Land use change has been recognized throughout the Earth as one of the most important factors influencing the occurrence of rainfall-driven geomorphological processes. However, relating the occurrence of historical soil erosion rates is difficult because of the lack of long-term research projects in river basins. Also, complex models are not adequate to reconstruct erosion rate changes because they require significant input data not always available on long timescales. Given the problems with assessing sediment yield using complex erosion models, the objective of this study is to explore a parsimonious scale-adapted erosion model (ADT) from the original Thornes and Douglas algorithms, which aims at reconstruction of annual net erosion (ANE) upon multisecular timescales. As a test site, the Calore River basin (3015 km² in southern Italy) provides a peculiar and unique opportunity for modelling erosion responses to climate and land cover changes, where input-data generation and interpretation results were also supported by documented hydrogeomorphological events that occurred before and after land deforestation. In this way, ANE_ADT-values were reconstructed for the period 1675–2004 by using precipitation indexes, complemented by recent instrumental records, and by using land cover statistics from documented agrarian sources. Pulses of natural sedimentation in the predeforestation period have been related to Vesuvius volcanic activity and changes in rainstorm frequency. After deforestation, the basin system became unstable with sudden fluctuations in the hydrogeomorphological regime contributing significantly to increased erosion and, in turn, sediment transport sequences via river drainage towards the Tyrrhenian coast.     

Modeling of rainfall-triggered shallow landslide

By integrating hydrological modeling with the infinite slope stability analysis, a rainfall-triggered shallow landslide model was developed by Iverson (Water Resour Res 36:1897-1910, 2000). In Iverson’s model, the infiltration capacity is assumed to be equivalent to the saturated hydraulic conductivity for finding pressure heads analytically. However, for general infiltration process, the infiltration capacity should vary with time during the period of rain, and the infiltration rate is significantly related to the variable infiltration capacity. To avoid the unrealistically high pressure heads, Iverson employed the beta-line correction by specifying that the simulated pressure heads cannot exceed those given by the beta line. In this study, the suitability of constant infiltration capacity together with the beta-line correction for hydrological modeling and landslide modeling of hillslope subjected to a rainfall is examined. By amending the boundary condition at ground surface of hillslope in Iverson’s model, the modified Iverson’s model with considering general infiltration process is developed to conduct this examination. The results show that the unrealistically high pressure heads from Iverson’s model occur due to the overestimation of infiltration rate induced from the assumption that the infiltration capacity is identical to the saturated hydraulic conductivity. Considering with the general infiltration process, the modified Iverson’s model gives acceptable results. In addition, even though the beta-line correction is applied, the Iverson’s model still produces greater simulated pressure heads and overestimates soil failure potential as compared with the modified Iverson’s model. Therefore, for assessing rainfall-triggered shallow landslide, the use of constant infiltration capacity together with the beta-line correction needs to be replaced by the consideration of general infiltration process.     

热带地区100 hPa东风气流的气候效应(Ⅱ): 与华北夏季降水的关系

利用1954-1998年NCAR／NCEP再分析资料及同期我国160个测站月降水资料，分析了热带地区100hPa东风与华北夏季降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）从春季到夏季，东风强度与华北夏季降水具有显著而稳定的正相关关系。（2）弱东风年夏季，印度洋及印度次大陆表面温度均为正异常，然而赤道印度洋地区的正异常明显强于其南北两侧。海温异常的这一分布特征，一方面使得100hPa东风减弱；另一方面使得南亚地区海陆热力对比减弱，导致南亚夏季风偏弱，进而造成由该季风区向华北地区的水汽输送减少，华北地区干旱。     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.     

Identifying and quantifying urban recharge: a review

The sources of and pathways for groundwater recharge in urban areas are more numerous and complex than in rural environments. Buildings, roads, and other surface infrastructure combine with man-made drainage networks to change the pathways for precipitation. Some direct recharge is lost, but additional recharge can occur from storm drainage systems. Large amounts of water are imported into most cities for supply, distributed through underground pipes, and collected again in sewers or septic tanks. The leaks from these pipe networks often provide substantial recharge. Sources of recharge in urban areas are identified through piezometry, chemical signatures, and water balances. All three approaches have problems. Recharge is quantified either by individual components (direct recharge, water-mains leakage, septic tanks, etc.) or holistically. Working with individual components requires large amounts of data, much of which is uncertain and is likely to lead to large uncertainties in the final result. Recommended holistic approaches include the use of groundwater modelling and solute balances, where various types of data are integrated. Urban recharge remains an under-researched topic, with few high-quality case studies reported in the literature. Electronic Publication     

利用卫星云图估算黄河中游地区平均面雨量

介绍了利用卫星云图资料估算黄河中游面雨量的基本方法：将GMS卫星1h间隔的可风和红外云图作为判别的两个特性进行分类，确定红外光线资料的所有最小值点作为对流核；多参照Negri-Adler的方法，应用斜率参数消除卷云；应用－维云模式确定红外线图上对流核的降水率，层状云降水通过一个温度阈值给出。另外，通过2001年7月26日至28日黄河流域出现的一次较强降雨过程进行应用分析，得出结论－－利用卫星云图估算黄河中游地区平均雨量的方法具有很好的实用价值。     

驻马店市春播期降水分析与趋势预报

利用1959－2001年春播期（3－4月）驻马店月降水资料，分析了春播期降水气候规律。找出与3－4月降水相关性好的因子，建立3，4月降水趋势预报方程。     

干旱半干旱地区农田土壤NO3-N深层积累及其影响因素

以长期试验资料为基础,着重分析了干旱半干旱地区农田系统中施肥、作物、降水、耕作措施以及土壤类型和特性对产生土壤NO3-N深层积累的影响.分析发现,氮肥的过量施用和400～800 mm降水量偏低是导致干旱半干旱地区土壤NO3-N积累在100～300 cm土层的主要因素.随着氮肥用量的增加,NO3-N深层积累显著增加;氮磷配施有助于降低其积累量.不同作物对氮素的吸收利用效率也是影响NO3-N深层积累的因素,作物之间的轮作方式会有效降低NO3-N深层积累;休闲期种植合理植物可有效降低NO3-N深层积累.NO3-N深层积累主要产生在质地较重的土壤上,带正电荷粘土矿物对NO3-N吸附是导致热带土壤中NO3-N积累的主要因素.深入研究深层积累NO3-N的生物有效性、迁移变化机理、与作物根系之间的关系以及对土壤性状和环境的影响具有重要意义.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGING PESTICIDE LOSSES IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

1 INTRODUCTION Agricultural use of pesticides has been recognized as one of the important non-point pollution sources in the world, and the pesticide application to agricultural lands has led to large amounts of residues discharged into surface water through runoff (Leonard, 1990). There have been growing concerns about the fate and transport of pesticides in agricultural lands, due to the associated adverse impacts on water environment and human health (Agassi et al., 1995; Ng and Clegg…     

Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr⁻¹ average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.