Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

华北南部地区——古生界构造演化及其油气远景

华北南部地区的地质演化与华北其他地区一样，经历了结晶基底形成，中一晚元古代台内裂谷发育、古生代稳定地台沉积和中一新生代活化等发展过程。但本区受秦岭褶皱带构造活动的强列影响。因而具有相对独特的构造演化特征和油气控制条件。早寒武世中期，古秦岭海槽伸展扩张，沉积了一套全区广泛分布的以碳酸盐岩为主夹泥页岩的地层；晚寒武世开始，古秦岭海槽向北俯冲挤压，在本区南部出现一个平行于海槽的大陆边缘隆起；中奥陶世发生     

试论层序地层学在1∶5万区调工作中的应用—以浑江地区为例

通过在吉南浑江地区开展的白山市等三幅１∶５万区调工作，尝试性地运用层序地层学的理论，初步总结了不同特征的不整合面（层序界面）及凝缩段的识别标志；分析了地层序列中矿产分布特征；探讨了层序分析中以剖面岩石（岩性、组构）、相转换界面的基础研究方法。进而将浑江地区新元古代—早古生代地层划分为三个Ⅱ级沉积序列（超层序）、七个Ⅲ级沉积序列（层序）。     

利用GPS资料浅析华北地区块体运动及与地震活动的关系

为了研究华北地区近年地壳水平运动的状态与演化．利用10a来华北地区网络工程、山西断裂带GPS观测成果．结合该区地质构造背景．分析了华北地区各块体运动的方向、速率变化及其与区内所发生地震的关系．初步得出以下结论：在区域应力场相对稳定时，表现为区域内GPS观测点整体趋势性运动不明显；而在区域应力场相对变化时．表现为影响区域内GPS观测点出现明显的整体趋势性运动。     

国家级气象资料存储检索系统的建立

对国家级气象资料存储检索系统的需求进行了分析，进而对系统进行了功能设计，并在技术调研和分析的基础上确定了功能实现的技术路线:在数据管理方面采用数据库和文件系统相结合的方式；在存储管理方面采用分级存储管理模式，并解决了数据库的分级存储管理技术；在检索应用方面提供了程序调用式检索方式，并通过采用中间件技术实现了基于B/S结构的程序调用式检索；通过选用HPSS技术解决了由异种机型构成的高性能计算机群存储池问题；通过分别建立实时数据库和综合数据库解决了气象资料的规范化存储和实时业务使用需求之间的矛盾；在应用软件开发方面严格按照有关规范进行。     

Influence of tectonic structures on the Hope Slide, British Columbia, Canada

The Hope Slide, which occurred on January 9, 1965, involved an estimated 47-Mm³ of meta-volcanics and intrusive rocks. Previous workers reported the presence of tectonic structures (faults and shear zones) along the failure surface at the Hope Slide. These tectonic features were investigated in detail to assess their effects on rock-mass quality and the related implications for slope stability. This paper integrates basic field and laboratory concepts from structural and engineering geology. Subdividing the failure area into structural domains allowed distinct discontinuity sets to be associated with specific tectonic structures. The Geological Strength Index (GSI) was used to estimate the rock-mass damage related to the tectonic structures. Low GSI values were seen to outline tectonic damage zones. Point-load tests were used to characterise the compressive strength of rocks adjacent to the tectonic structures. Strength anisotropy, tentatively attributed to damage caused by a large shear zone, was observed in greenstone samples. Seepage zones along the failure surface were observed preferentially along shallow discontinuities that dipped downslope and in rock masses of good quality (GSI > 40). An alternative morphology of the slope failure is proposed by distinguishing between the extent of the surficial damage due to the rock-slope failure and the zone of failed material (depletion zone). For the first time, a kinematic mechanism for the Hope Slide is proposed, based on a preliminary 3-dimensional block model. A pre-1965 DEM was produced from estimates of material lost and gained as reported by previous workers. The pre-1965 DEM revealed that the tectonic structures recognised during fieldwork bounded the material that failed in the 1965 event.     

9: Processes of tectonism, magmatism and mineralization: Lessons from Europe

Metallogenic provinces in Europe range in age from the Archaean to the Neogene. Deposit types include porphyry copper and epithermal Cu–Au, volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (VMS), orogenic gold, Fe-oxide–Cu–Au, anorthosite Fe–Ti-oxide and sediment-hosted base-metal deposits. Most of them formed during short-lived magmatic events in a wide range of tectonic settings; many can be related to specific tectonic processes such as subduction, hinge retreat, accretion of island arcs, continental collision, lithosphere delamination or slab tear. In contrast, most sediment-hosted deposits in Europe evolved in extensional, continental settings over significant periods of time. In Europe, as elsewhere, ore formation is an integral part of the geodynamic evolution of the Earth's crust and mantle. Many tectonic settings create conditions conducive to the generation of water-rich magma, but the generation of ore deposits appears to be restricted to locations and short periods of change in temperature and stress, imposed by transitory plate motions. Crustal influence is evident in the strong structural controls on the location and morphology of many ore deposits in Europe. Crustal-scale fault–fracture systems, many involving strike-slip elements, have provided the fabric for major plumbing systems. Rapid uplift, as in metamorphic core complexes, and hydraulic fracturing can generate or focus magmatic–hydrothermal fluid flow that may be active for time spans significantly less than a million years. Once a hydrologically stable flow is established, ore formation is strongly dependent on the steep temperature and pressure gradients experienced by the fluid, particularly within the upper crust. In Europe, significant fracture porosity deep in the crystalline basement (1%) is not only important for magmatic–hydrothermal systems, but allows brines to circulate down through sedimentary basins and then episodically upward, expelled seismically to produce sediment-hosted base-metal deposits and Kupferschiefer copper deposits. Emerging research, stimulated by GEODE, can improve the predicting power of numerical simulations of ore-forming processes and help discover the presence of orebodies beneath barren overburden.     

The internal deformation of the Peridotite Nappe of New Caledonia: A structural study of serpentine-bearing faults and shear zones in the Koniambo Massif

We present a structural analysis of serpentine-bearing faults and shear zones in the Koniambo Massif, one of the klippes of the Peridotite Nappe of New Caledonia. Three structural levels are recognized. The upper level is characterized by a dense network of fractures. Antigorite and polygonal serpentine form slickenfibers along fault planes with distinct kinematics. As a result, the upper level keeps the record of at least two deformation events, the first associated with the growth of antigorite (WNW-ESE extension), the second with the growth of polygonal serpentine (NW–SE compression). The lower level coincides with the ‘serpentine sole’ of the nappe, which consists of massive tectonic breccias overlying a layer of mylonitic serpentinites. The sole records pervasive tangential shear with top-to-SW kinematics and represents a décollement at the base of the nappe. The intermediate level is characterized by the presence of several meters-thick conjugate shear zones accommodating NE–SW shortening. Like the sole, these shear zones involve polygonal serpentine and magnesite as the main syn-kinematic mineral phases. The shear zones likely root into the basal décollement, either along its roof or, occasionally, around its base. Compared to top-to-SW shearing along the sole, the two deformation events recorded in the upper level are older.The three structural levels correlate well with previously recognized spatial variations in the degree of serpentinization. It is therefore tempting to consider that the intensity of serpentinization played a major role in the way deformation has been distributed across the Peridotite Nappe. However, even the least altered peridotites, in the upper level, contain so much serpentine that, according to theoretical and experimental work, they should be nearly as weak as pure serpentinite. Hence, no strong vertical gradient in strength due to variations in the degree of serpentinization is expected within the exposed part of the nappe. Our proposal is that strain localization along the serpentine sole results from the juxtaposition of the nappe, made of weak serpentinized peridotites, against the strong mafic rocks of its substratum. This interpretation is at odds with the intuitive view that would consider the nappe, made of peridotites, as stronger than its basement.     

加强矿业供给侧结构性改革的初步思考

当前我国正处经济增速减缓的新常态,供给侧结构性改革应运而生。我国乃至世界的矿业更是处于发展的严冬之季,产能严重过剩,大宗商品价格持续走低。在当前形势下,我们要用新常态眼光看待矿业未来发展之路,因地制宜,着力加强供给侧改革,刻不容缓。     

Sequestration of molybdate during transformation of 2-line ferrihydrite under alkaline conditions

Hematite is a thermodynamically stable iron oxide under the aerobic conditions present in most natural surface soils and sediments. Most studies to date have focused on the capacity of hematite to adsorb trace metals and metalloids, but structural incorporation of trace metals within hematite is less recognized. This study assessed the incorporation of molybdenum within the structure of hematite during the phase transformation of 2-line ferrihydrite under alkaline conditions (pH ∼10). Extended X-ray absorption fine structure analyses show molybdenum incorporated into hematite, with two Mo-O shells having a coordination number (CN) of 3 and average bond distances of 1.78 ± 0.01 and 2.08 ± 0.02 Å, respectively, as well as two Mo-Fe shells with a CN of 3 and average bond distances of 3.10 ± 0.02 Å and 3.44 ± 0.02 Å, respectively. This observation suggests the tetrahedrally-coordinated Mo in the molybdate that adsorbs onto the 2-line ferrihydrite changes to an octahedrally-coordinated Mo within the hematite with Mo possibly substituting for Fe in the hematite structure. Our findings suggest that molybdenum partitioning (low concentrations) to iron oxides in the environment can occur due to structural incorporation as well as adsorption.