市场相似性与中国制造业出口市场的空间演化路径

基于扩展引力模型和演化经济地理理论,利用2002-2011年中国海关数据库,采用核密度分布和计量经济模型等方法,考察中国城市出口市场的空间演化路径及其微观机制。基于共存分析方法测算的国家间市场相似度在方法上有所创新,将演化经济地理研究中的“路径”成功量化。全国样本的研究结果表明：城市和企业两个层面的演化路径证明了扩展引力模型的基本结论,说明与过去出口市场相似度越高的国家,被城市和企业扩展为新市场的概率越大,证实了中国出口市场的空间演化是遵循路径依赖的。此外,还发现城市与企业之间的协同演化过程：东部城市表现出路径突破,而企业层面的能力可能是城市路径突破的重要来源;同时,城市层面的知识溢出对企业市场演化有显著的正向影响。总之,城市与企业之间相互影响、协同演化是中国出口市场空间演化的重要机制。     

空间加密探空观测资料对西南低涡暴雨天气过程数值模拟的影响

本文基于AREM（Advanced Regional Eta Model）模式,结合中国气象局成都高原气象研究所西南低涡加密观测科学试验得到的探空观测第一手资料,通过对2012年7月3～4日四川区域性暴雨天气过程（20120703过程）进行数值模拟分析,结果表明:（1）降水雨带的分布主要取决于西南低涡移动路径,不同初值会使得低涡路径在磨合协调期产生强摆动,稳定后则在此基础上,随着环境流场继续移动发展。（2）引入4个加密探空站点资料会对整个大气物理量场造成一定影响,最大差值分布在这些站点附近,热力和动力物理量场最大偏差中心并不重合。时间演变直观地说明了初值对局地大气状态的影响时段有限,主要集中在前期,与模式自身调整期相重叠。（3）初始的大气状态必然会随着模式的磨合过程进行调整,不同初值在调整期能对中小尺度低涡系统的位置及强度产生影响,形成各自稳定的低涡系统初态。（4）低涡中心所对应的散度、涡度、垂直速度关系非常密切,但三者强度和发展高度的演变并非完全一致。     

Structural control of geothermal reservoirs in extensional tectonic settings: An example from the Upper Rhine Graben

In extensional tectonic settings major structural elements such as graben boundary faults are typically oriented subparallel to the maximum horizontal stress component S_Hmax. They are often structurally accompanied by transfer zones that trend subparallel to the extension direction. In the Upper Rhine Graben, such transfer faults are typically characterized by strike-slip or oblique-slip kinematics. A major re-orientation of the regional stress field by up to 90° of the Upper Rhine Graben in the Early Miocene led to the present-day normal and strike-slip faulting regimes in the North and South of the Upper Rhine Graben, respectively, and a transition zone in-between. Consequently, conditions for fault frictional failure changed significantly. Moreover, it has been observed during tracer and stimulation experiments that such transfer faults may be of major importance for the hydraulic field of geothermal reservoirs under the present stress condition, especially, when located between production and injection well.In this context we have investigated slip and dilation tendencies (T_S and T_D) of major structural elements at reservoir scale for two representative geothermal sites, Bruchsal (Germany) and Riehen (Switzerland), located close to the Eastern Main Boundary Fault of the Upper Rhine Graben. We have evaluated the quality and uncertainty range of both tendencies with respect to potential variation in S_Hmax orientation. Despite significant differences in orientation of the structures and the stress regimes, the resulting variation of T_S and T_D reveal major similarities concerning the reactivation potential of both, the graben-parallel structures and the transfer faults. The conditions of criticality for tensile failure and non-criticality for shear failure suggest that transfer faults are most likely naturally permeable structures with low stimulation potential. This is in agreement with the absence of both immediate tracer recovery and seismicity in the studied geothermal sites.     

基于蚁群算法在实际动态路网中搜索最佳路径的应用

最佳路径是实际动态路网中备受关注的话题之一,为了提高出行的效率、缓解交通拥堵的状况,本文对动态路网进行分析研究。通过分析实际动态路网的可通行性及影响因素,针对在理论研究中未结合实际路网中的影响因素而得出的最佳路线不符实际路线中的最优情况,在蚁群算法的基础上,结合实际路况,笔者对其进行改进,该算法可实现计算出一条从起始点到终点的最佳路径,并在Visual Studio 2010中用C#语言设计并验证了该算法,证明了它的正确性和有效性。     

乌鲁木齐河流域积雪面积变化及其对径流的影响

积雪面积是干旱区分布式水文模型的重要输入因子,为了研究其与径流间的关系,基于MODIS数据提取乌鲁木齐河流域英雄桥站以上积雪面积,分析了流域近年来积雪面积变化特征,采用偏相关分析法阐明了降水和气温变化对积雪面积的影响,并利用多元逐步回归与通径分析研究了径流同积雪面积、降水、气温间的关系。结果表明:(1)流域积雪面积12月份达到最大,7月份达到最小,多年积雪面积变化呈不明显下降趋势;(2)气温对积雪面积的变化较降水更加敏感;(3)流域内各因素间的相互影响促进了径流的产生。     

西藏日喀则蛇绿岩中石榴角闪岩的矿物、岩石地球化学特征

西藏雅鲁藏布蛇绿岩带中段日喀则地区的白朗蛇绿混杂岩中,存在作为变质底板的石榴角闪岩。本文对其进行了矿物学、变质温压条件和岩石地球化学研究。根据岩相学和矿物化学研究,日喀则石榴角闪岩经历了四个变质阶段,矿物组合分别为:Am_1+Pl_1+Ep_1+Ttn(M1);Grt-c+Cpx-e+Ep_2+Pl_2+Rt(M2);Grt-r+Ep_3/Czo_3+Cpx-l+Am_3+Pl_3+Ttn(M3)和Prh+Ab+Czo+Chl+Cal(M4)。根据SAFMCNHO体系矿物组合演化的视剖面图,结合传统的地质温压计,估算出峰期前的温压条件为560~620℃/9.1~9.8kbar;峰值为830~870℃/18.0~22.0kbar,退变质阶段保留了640~680℃/10.7~14.9kbar的温压条件,最终止于葡萄石-绿纤石的前绿片岩相变质条件;得出一条逆时针的P-T轨迹。白朗变质底板的岩性可分为三类,即石榴角闪岩、角闪辉石岩和单辉角闪岩。三种岩性具有相似的地球化学性质:主量元素具有低钛(0.92%~1.29%)、低钾(0.26%)、低钠(0.24%~2.46%)的特征。稀土元素和微量元素特征与N-MROB相似,富集大离子亲石元素(Rb、Ba、U),亏损部分高场强元素(Nb、Ti、Zr、Hf),表现出白朗蛇绿混杂岩中的石榴角闪岩等与洋中脊玄武岩有亲缘性,且叠加有俯冲上板片SSZ环境特征。白朗石榴角闪岩的存在表明日喀则蛇绿岩在形成后不久就发生了构造就位,体现了大洋内部俯冲/侵位事件。     

不同养殖海域栉孔扇贝(Chlamys farreri)混合家系的通径分析

为了深入认识栉孔扇贝(Chlamys farreri)壳尺寸性状和体重之间的关系,达到通过直观可见形状判断非直观性状,在栉孔扇贝苗种培育中指导种贝挑选工作的目的,本实验将600余只扇贝分别于三个不同纬度养殖环境(山东青岛、山东荣成和辽宁大连)下养殖一年后测量其性状数据,包括壳长、壳高、壳宽、体重,进行壳尺寸性状对体重性状的通径分析。偏回归系数统计表明,除大连海域壳长对体重的偏回归系数为0.266,差异不显著(P0.05)外,其它参数对体重均极显著(P0.01),表明大多数自变量和因变量之间都有极显著的共线性关系。对各个海域建立以壳尺寸为自变量,体重为因变量的回归方程,得出通径系数、各性状间的相关性指数以及各参数对体重的决定系数,计算出了不同养殖地点的栉孔扇贝壳尺寸性状和体重之间关系的回归方程。通径分析显示,对青岛海域栉孔扇贝体重直接作用最大的是壳高,对荣成海域栉孔扇贝体重直接作用最大的是壳长,而对大连海域栉孔扇贝体重直接作用最大的是壳宽。因此,以体重为目标挑选青岛海域的种贝时,应以壳高为优先选择指标;挑选荣成海域的种贝时,优先选择壳长;挑选大连海域的种贝时,优先选择壳宽。不同养殖海域栉孔扇贝的通径分析为栉孔扇贝亲贝的挑选提供了理论支持。     

Thermomechanical evolution of the high‐grade core in the nappe zone of Variscan Sardinia,Italy: the role of shear deformation and granite emplacement

In the nappe zone of the Sardinian Variscan chain, the deformation and metamorphic grade increase throughout the tectonic nappe stack from lower greenschist to upper amphibolite facies conditions in the deepest nappe, the Monte Grighini Unit. A synthesis of petrological, structural and radiometric data is presented that allows us to constrain the thermal and mechanical evolution of this unit. Carboniferous subduction under a low geothermal gradient (~490–570 °C GPa^?1) was followed by exhumation accompanied by heating and Late Carboniferous magma emplacement at a high apparent geothermal gradient (~1200–1450 °C GPa^?1). Exhumation coeval with nappe stacking was closely followed by activity on a ductile strike‐slip shear zone that accommodated magma intrusion and enabled the final exhumation of the Monte Grighini Unit to upper crustal levels. The reconstructed thermo‐mechanical evolution allows a more complete understanding of the Variscan orogenic wedge in central Sardinia. As a result we are able to confirm a diachronous evolution of metamorphic and tectonic events from the inner axial zone to the outer nappe zone, with the Late Variscan low‐P/high‐T metamorphism and crustal anatexis as a common feature across the Sardinian portion of the Variscan orogen.     

Carboniferous palaeomagnetism of the Rocky Creek Block,northern Tamworth Belt,and the New England pole path

Palaeomagnetic, rock magnetic and magnetic fabric results are presented for a Carboniferous (Visean to Westphalian) succession of felsic, mainly ignimbritic, volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks from the Rocky Creek Block of the northern Tamworth Belt, southern New England Orogen. Detailed thermal demagnetisation of 734 samples from 64 sites show three groups of magnetic components with low (<300°C), intermediate (300–600°C) and high (500–680°C) unblocking temperature ranges. Well‐defined primary magnetisations have been determined for 28 sites with evidence of four overprint phases. The overprints arise from a mid‐Tertiary weathering event (or possibly recent viscous origin), and from fluid movements associated with the Late Cretaceous opening of the Tasman Sea, thrusting during the Middle Triassic main phase of the Hunter‐Bowen Orogeny, and latest Carboniferous — Early Permian formation of the Bowen‐Gunnedah‐Sydney Basin system. Rock magnetic tests establish that the primary magnetisation carriers in the volcanic rocks are mainly magnetite (predominantly single domain, or pseudo‐single domain, and little or no multidomain) and hematite. Optimal magnetic cleaning is achieved at high to very high temperatures, with subtle, but systematic, directional and statistical differences between primary components derived from the mainly hematite fraction and pseudo‐components derived from the mainly magnetite fraction. The 28 primary magnetisation results are presented as six mean‐site results, summarised below and representing 25 sites, and three single‐site results. Fold tests could be applied to five mean‐site results. These are all positive, but one of these results may represent a secondary magnetisation. The primary magnetisation results define a Visean to Westphalian pole path. This long pole path indi cates extensive latitudinal and rotational movement for the Rocky Creek Block, and potentially for the New England Orogen, as follows: (i) Yuendoo Rhyolite Member (Caroda Formation, Visean) pole 235.8°E, 27.7°S, ED₉₅ = 9.0°, n = 3; (ii) Peri Rhyolite Member/Boomi Rhyolite Member (Clifden Formation, Namurian, 318.0 ± 3.4 Ma) pole 177.4°E, 63.4°S, ED₉₅ = 5.2°, n = 3; (iii) tuffaceous beds above Boomi Rhyolite Member (Clifden Formation?, Namurian) pole 162.2°E, 59.1°S, ED₉₅ = 10.2°, n = 3; ((iv) upper Clifden Formation/lower Rocky Creek Conglomerate (Namurian/Westphalian) pole 95.3°E, 49.6°S, ED₉₅ = 8.1°, n = 3 (possible overprint)); (v) Rocky Creek Conglomerate (Westphalian) pole 136.5°E, 57.6°S, ED₉₅ = 5.3°, n = 5; (vi) Lark Hill Formation (Westphalian) pole 127.0°E, 50.4°S, ED₉₅ = 4.8°, n = 8.     

支持城市多种交通方式的最佳路径分析

分析了影响出行者路径选择的因素,研究了不同交通方式即出行时间、出行距离、拥挤程度、通行费用和服务水平上的差别,把通行费用和服务水平作为重要区别因素,实现了城市公交车和的士两种交通方式下的最优路径。