北印度洋气候对冬夏季航线选择的影响

文章介绍了海洋气象导航发展的必然性及其气象航线选择的原理和影响因素。结合中央气象台海洋气象导航中心近10年来的实船导航业务,分析了北印度洋气候对冬、夏季航线选择的影响因素,指出应结合北印度洋的冬、夏季气候变化及地形特点选择不同的气象航线。该文为在实际工作中根据不同的季节及船型情况选择不同的航线、规避大风和巨浪出现频率高的区域,以及保持良好的航行条件提供了依据。     

Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.     

The role and limits of strategic framing for promoting sustainable consumption and policy

Strategic issue framing is widely regarded as an effective communication strategy to alter public opinion and citizens’ policy support. However, it is unclear to what extent strategic framing can increase support for ambitious demand-side actions and policies that make the cost of mitigation perceptible in citizens’ everyday lives. Taking an exploratory approach, we conducted qualitative interviews and a comparative framing experiment with 9,750 survey respondents from China, Germany, and the United States. We analyzed strategic issue framing effects in two areas known to be key for increasing the sustainability of consumption: meat/fish consumption, and fossil-fuel car usage. Employing both classical linear regressions and advanced Bayesian sparse estimations, we show that in all three countries widespread arguments in favor of reduced meat/fish consumption and car use are unlikely to substantially alter citizens’ concern, willingness to pay, behavioral intentions and policy support for demand-side action. Our findings suggest that in the absence of a broader behavioral change campaign, strategic issue framing alone is unlikely to be effective in changing entrenched attitudes and behaviors. On its own, it is also unlikely to substantially increase public support for demand-side policies to reduce consumption. More careful research is needed to help policymakers understand the role and limits of different strategic framing techniques.     

Modeling endogenous learning and imperfect competition effects in climate change economics

In this two-part paper we evaluate the effect of “endogenizing” technological learning and strategic behavior of agents in economic models used to assess climate change policies. In the first part we show the potential impact of R&D policies or demonstration and deployment (D&D) programs in the context of stringent stabilization scenarios. In the second part we show how game-theoretic methods can be implemented in climate change economic models to take into account three types of strategic interactions: (i) the market power of the countries benefiting from very low abatement costs on international markets for CO₂ emissions, (ii) the strategic behavior of governments in the domestic allocation of CO₂ emissions quotas, and (iii) the non-cooperative behavior of countries and regions in the burden sharing of CO₂ concentration stabilization. The two topics of endogenous learning and game-theoretic approach to economic modeling are two manifestations of the need to take into account the strategic behavior of agents in the evaluation of climate change policies. In the first case an R&D policy or a demonstration and deployment (D&D) program are put in place in order to attain a cost reduction through the learning effect; in the second case the agents (countries) reply optimally to the actions decided by the other agents by exploiting their strategic advantages. Simulations based on integrated assessment models illustrate the approaches. These studies have been conducted under the Swiss NCCR-Climate program.     

找矿突破战略行动十年胶东金矿成矿理论与深部勘查进展

2011年原国土资源部组织实施找矿突破战略行动以来,胶东金矿深部找矿取得了重大成绩,新增金资源量约2958 t,勘查评价了12个大型及以上金矿床,发现了2个超巨型金矿床。胶东地区累计探明金资源量逾5000 t,占全国的1/3。这些成果的取得得益于对成矿构造背景、成矿规律、矿床成因等成矿理论认识的不断深化和勘查技术方法的不断进步。胶东金矿成矿作用及相关研究是国内地学研究的热点之一,总结了近10年胶东金矿成矿背景、矿床分布、成矿时代、矿床地球化学、成矿模式、矿床成因等方面的研究进展或突破,尤其是对深部成矿模式、大规模成矿机制等研究取得的原创性成果。研究表明,胶东金矿形成于埃达克性质花岗岩转化为弧花岗岩的岩浆活动背景,岩浆岩和岩石圈地幔地球化学性状转化为金成矿提供了物质来源,早白垩世热隆-伸展构造为大规模金成矿提供了有利条件,断裂倾角变化控制了流体聚集和富矿柱的形成,成矿物质和流体来源有幔源因素,胶东型金矿是与经典造山型金矿和其他已知金矿类型不同的新的金矿成因类型。胶东金矿勘查综合应用了成矿规律、大探测深度地球物理方法、构造叠加晕地球化学方法、三维地质建模、深孔钻探等技术方法,以赋矿构造位置为目标、以频率域电磁探测为主要技术手段的深部金矿阶梯找矿方法发挥了重要作用。深部勘查发现,新探明的金资源量集中于1000~2000 m深度,绝大部分为破碎带蚀变岩型矿化,三山岛地区和焦家地区的多个浅部矿体向深部连为一体,构成资源量大于1000 t的超巨型金矿床。探明了中国首个海域金矿床,在胶东东部发现黄铁矿碳酸盐脉型新的金矿化类型。综合分析指出,晚中生代构造体制转换对大规模成矿的影响、断裂控矿机理、成矿流体和物质来源、金矿资源潜力及精细高效的找矿技术等是今后的重点研究方向。     

我国地质学基础研究人才队伍建设存在的突出问题与原因剖析

地学人才是我国实现从地学大国走向地学强国的关键。近年来我国部署加强地质工作,对地质人才的需求更为紧迫。对我国地质学基础研究领域人才队伍的现状进行了调研,同时对该领域国家杰出青年科学基金项目获得者和青年基金项目负责人开展问卷调查,运用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,探讨我国地质学领域人才队伍建设的突出问题,创新地提出了一些战略对策。     

v-SVC算法在地震与爆破识别及窗长度选取中的应用

对天然地震与人工爆破的波形记录,本文用v—SVC支持向量分类机对由波形记录获取的香农熵特征进行了分类识别,效果较好;并对波形记录选取不同的信号窗长度,用v—SVC支持向量分类机分别进行了识别检验。结果表明:窗长度对识别效果有影响,以窗长度为2000点的识别效果最好,识别率达98%。这也表明,在地震与爆破的识别中,合理地选取波形记录的信号窗长度也是重要的。     

战略性关键矿产相关问题探讨

“战略性关键矿产”尚无统一的定义,本文解释为“在节能环保、新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料、新能源汽车等战略性新兴产业领域中必需的或者能够发挥关键性作用的矿产,包括稀土、稀有金属和稀散金属以及铂族元素、稀有气体和小部分有色金属及非金属。用量一般不大(全球年需求量一般不超过20万t),但具有资源本身的稀缺性、空间分布的局域性和原材料领域的不可替代性。对于一个国家的产业转型、科技创新、经济提升、国家安全、人类健康乃至于在社会发展的方方面面都能够发挥四两拨千斤的作用”。包括新能源领域中所必需的锂以及将来可能取代锂的铷,医学领域中的镓,军事与民用领域都不可或缺的铀、锂、铍等。石油、煤、铁、铜等大宗矿产也具有战略性意义,但一般作为基础性矿产资源而不纳入战略性关键矿产。     

An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.