随机方法模拟地震动的应用研究

对随机方法模拟地震动的实际应用进行了研究。通过实际模拟验证,此方法简单有效,可为结构抗震设计提供验算依据,同时为设计反应谱的拟合提供参照数据,有一定的实用性,但仍存在一定的不足。     

气候变暖对中国水稻生产可能影响的研究

利用随机天气模型,将大气环流模式预测的气候情景与水稻模式相链接,研究了气候变暖对中国水稻生产的可能影响。结果表明,大气中ＣＯ２浓度加倍,中国水稻主产区适宜水稻生长的日数将延长６～１１ｄ,积温增加２２０～３３０℃·ｄ。积温的相对增长率由南向北呈增长趋势。水稻产量形成期低温天气出现频率将减少,而高温天气出现的频率增加。若品种与播种、移栽期不变,水稻产量将下降;而若通过改变品种使作物生育期基本保持目前的状况,减产幅度将比品种不变时明显偏小,部分地区还有可能增产。     

Effect of Conditioning Randomly Heterogeneous Transmissivity on Temporal Hydraulic Head Measurements in Transient Two-Dimensional Aquifer Flow

We investigated the effect of conditioning transient, two-dimensional groundwater flow simulations, where the transmissivity was a spatial random field, on time dependent head data. The random fields, representing perturbations in log transmissivity, were generated using a known covariance function and then conditioned to match head data by iteratively cokriging and solving the flow model numerically. A new approximation to the cross-covariance of log transmissivity perturbations with time dependent head data and head data at different times, that greatly increased the computational efficiency, was introduced. The most noticeable effect of head data on the estimation of head and log transmissivity perturbations occurred from conditioning only on spatially distributed head measurements during steady flow. The additional improvement in the estimation of the log transmissivity and head perturbations obtained by conditioning on time dependent head data was fairly small. On the other hand, conditioning on temporal head data had a significant effect on particle tracks and reduced the lateral spreading around the center of the paths.     

Effect of Conditioning Randomly Heterogeneous Transmissivity on Temporal Hydraulic Head Measurements in Transient Two-Dimensional Aquifer Flow

We investigated the effect of conditioning transient, two-dimensional groundwater flow simulations, where the transmissivity was a spatial random field, on time dependent head data. The random fields, representing perturbations in log transmissivity, were generated using a known covariance function and then conditioned to match head data by iteratively cokriging and solving the flow model numerically. A new approximation to the cross-covariance of log transmissivity perturbations with time dependent head data and head data at different times, that greatly increased the computational efficiency, was introduced. The most noticeable effect of head data on the estimation of head and log transmissivity perturbations occurred from conditioning only on spatially distributed head measurements during steady flow. The additional improvement in the estimation of the log transmissivity and head perturbations obtained by conditioning on time dependent head data was fairly small. On the other hand, conditioning on temporal head data had a significant effect on particle tracks and reduced the lateral spreading around the center of the paths.     

On the sensitivity of the location, size and shape of the GPS ambiguity search space to certain changes in the stochastic model

In this contribution we analyse in a qualitative sense for the geometry-free model the dependency of the location, the size and the shape of the ambiguity search space on different factors of the stochastic model. For this purpose a rather general stochastic model is used. It includes time-correlation, cross-correlation, satellite elevation dependency and the use of an a priori weighted ionospheric model, having the ionosphere-fixed model and the ionosphere-float model as special cases. It is shown that the location is invariant for changes in the cofactor matrix of the phase observables. This also holds true for the cofactor matrix of the code observables in the ionosphere-float case. As for time-correlation and satellite elevation dependency, it is shown that they only affect the size of the search space, but not its shape and orientation. It is also shown that the least-squares ambiguities, their variance matrix and its determinant, for, respectively, the ionosphere-fixed model, the ionosphere-float model and the ionosphere-weighted model, are all related through the same scalar weighted mean, the weight of which is governed by the variance ratio of the ionospheric delays and the code observables. A closed-form expression is given for the area of the search space in which all contributing factors are easily recognized. From it one can infer by how much the area gets blown up when the ionospheric spatial decorrelation increases. This multiplication factor is largest when one switches from the ionosphere-fixed model to the ionosphere-float model, in which case it is approximately equal to the ratio of the standard deviation of phase with that of code. The area gives an indication of the number of grid points inside the search space. Received: 11 November 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997     

An evaluation method of hydrocarbon generating potential of highly mature and over-mature marine carbonate

How to restore the residual organic carbon and residual hydrocarbon-generating potential is discussed based on the hydrocarbon degradability of source rock. The results indicate there is linear function relationship between the restoring coefficient of residual organic carbon (K_c) and the vitrinite reflectance (R _o%) of various kinds of source rock, but the relationship is secondary functional between the restoring coefficient of residual hydrocarbon-generating potential (K_s) and the vitrinite reflectance (R _o%). It is pointed out thatKc = (1 -Dresidual)/(1 -D _primary),Ks= Kc (D _primary/D _residual). The restoration of residual organic carbon and hydrocarbon-generating potential of the Cambrian and Ordovician highly mature marine carbonate in the Tarim Basin and North China region shows that the lower limit value of hydrocarbon generating potential and the organic matter abundance of carbonate source rock are basically the same as that of clastic rock. The technical difficulty in hydrocarbon generating evaluation of highly mature and overmature carbonate is solved.     

The role of moisture fluctuations in unsaturated transport

Within the framework of stochastic theory and the spectral perturbation techniques, three-dimensional dispersion in partially saturated soils with a finite correlation scale of log-hydraulic conductivity is analyzed. The effects of spatial variability of the moisture distribution parameter on the asymptotic spreading behavior of a unsaturated solute plume are assessed. This is accomplished by comparing two asymptotic macrodispersivities and two variance of solute concentration, obtained for a constant moisture content and spatially varied moisture, respectively.     

General solution to random advective-dispersive equation in porous media

This series of articles present general applications of functional-analytic theory to the solution of the partial differential equation describing solid transport in aquifers, when either the evolution of the system, the sources, the parameters and/or the boundary conditions are prescribed as stochastic processes in time or in space. This procedure does not require the restricting assumptions placed upon the current particular solutions on which today's stochastic transport theory is based, such as small randomness assumptions (perturbation techniques), Montecarlo simulations, restriction to small spatial stochasticity in the hydraulic conductivity, use of spectral analysis techniques, restriction to asymptotic steady state conditions, and restriction to variance of the concentration as the only model output among others. Functional analysis provides a rigorous tool in which the concentration stochastic properties can be predicted in a natural way based upon the known stochastic properties of the sources, the parameters and/or the boundary conditions. Thus the theory satisfies a more general modeling need by providing, if desired, a systematic global information on the sample functions, the mean, the variance, correlation functions or higher-order moments based on similar information of any size, anywhere, of the input functions. Part I of this series of articles presents the main relevant results of functional-analytic theory and individual cases of applications to the solution of distributed sources problems, with time as well as spatial stochasticity, and the solution subject to stochastic boundary conditions. It was found that the stochastically-forced equation may be a promising model for a variety of random source problems. When the differential equation is perturbed by a time and space stochastic process, the output is also a time and space stochastic process, in contrast with most of the existing solutions which ignore the temporal component. Stochastic boundary conditions seems to quickly dissipate as time increases.     

A survey of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations

The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.     

Semigroup solutions to stochastic unsteady groundwater flow subject to random parameters

Two methods for the solution of partial differential equations (PDE) for the general case of random in time physical parameters are presented and their application to the solution of unsteady regional groundwater flow equations are illustrated. The first method is the semigroup approach which directly offers a solution without resorting to closure approximations (hierarchy techniques), perturbation techniques, or Montecarlo simulation techniques. The semigroup approach can also handle the general stochastic problem when randomness also appears as initial conditions, boundary conditions or forcing terms. The second method is an approximation scheme to obtain the semigroup solution in complex cases and permits the solution of equations with more than one random coefficient.