20世纪80～90年代我国气候增暖进程的统计事实

运用统计诊断方法分析了近50年来我国年平均及四季的气温变化特征，重点研究了20世纪90年代和80年代气温变化的主要差异及其增暖进程。结果表明，我国年平均气温是呈上升趋势的，但80年代以前年代际变化并不明显, 升温幅度不大。我国气候增暖始于20世纪80年代后期，90年代增暖加速，急剧增暖的主要原因是长江流域以南地区经历了由偏冷向偏暖的趋势转变。我国四季气温变化趋势在80～90年代增暖的进程中存在明显差异:其中冬季增暖开始时间最早、幅度最大、持续时间最长；90年代我国气候增暖急剧加速，其原因除了冬季气温持续攀升作用外，春、夏、秋季气温上升, 特别是春、夏季增暖幅度的加大增暖区域的显著扩展也起到很重要的作用。     

河南降水及最长连续无降水日数时空特征

利用河南省均匀分布的50个台站自建站至1997年近50年的定时降水资料，分析了河南省日小雨、日中雨、日大雨降水过程出现次数和最长连续无降水日数，结果显示，河南省日小雨、日中雨降水过程一年四季均可出现，日大而过程主要出现在3～11月份，冬季仅在豫南一些台站出现，各级降水过程出现次数季节性变化明显，冬季出现最少，夏季出现最多，其地理分布随测站纬度、拔海高度、地形地貌不同有较大差异；最长连续无降水日数也有明显的季节性变化特点，其最大值多出现在冬季，春秋次之，夏季最小，地理位置差异也较明显。     

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.     

地表非均匀性对区域平均水分通量参数化的影响

次网格尺度地表非均匀性对于网格区平均通量具有重要影响。若将网格区视为均一地表 ,并不能真实描述地 气通量交换过程 ,且可造成很大误差。文中从理论上证明 ,区域平均水分通量的变化率可分解为两部分 :第一部分为区域水分通量的算术平均变化率 ;第二部分为非均匀性所引起的水分通量变化率扰动 ,它与区域内土壤水分空间分布的变差系数有关。数值试验表明 ,地表土壤水分的水平空间变差系数集中反映了区域内土壤水分分布的非均匀程度 ,不同土壤对同样的非均匀程度其敏感性是不同的。变差系数愈大 ,非均匀性愈强 ,在相同的土壤水分平均值下 ,不同土壤类型对地表非均匀程度的敏感性并不相同。例如沙土和粘土受非均匀性的影响就可相差数十倍。     

用几何光学模型对方向变化和直方图建模(英文)

森林和林地的图象二向性反射函数是一个统计函数，较之小尺度的树冠，它更多地用于大尺度的均匀覆盖的地块。用航空象片和高空间分辨率扫描仪数据作的图象热点影响研究在小尺度下显示出很大方差，而且，太阳和观测角度的交互变化进一步增加了这种反射各向异性变化的方差并有规律地继续呈现在分辨率低的图象中，这被称作ＢＲＶＦ或二向性反射方差函数。近年来，作为一种解释结构的手段，高分辨率图象的方向性方差和直方图结构越来越受到重视，这方面的数据也越来越多。这项工作是利用图象方差来解释结构问题（Ｓｔｒａｈｌｅｒ和李小文倡导）的一种延伸，并在过去１５年中由众多人员作了大量工作。在树冠尺度下，森林的直方图和二向反射方差函数可以计算出来，这里利用了近似迭代函数来处理这些数据并和数值积分模拟进行了对比，结果显示可对二向性反射方差函数的测量和引入直方图的各向异性进行准确建模。     

几何光学冠层反射建模中的光谱分量特征的参数化(英文)

该文用几何光学与辐射传输混合模型研究不连续植被冠层的几何光学反射模型的四分量（承照树冠、承照地面、阴影树冠、阴影地面）的参数化。用一个修正的均匀介质层路径散射（反射与传输）参数的解析算法估计路径散射参数（反射与传输），其中也考虑了冠层间隙的影响。光谱分量特征是不连续植被冠层的传输与反射，背景反照率，以直射光通量与天空漫射光通量比例的函数。光谱分量特征的模型与在美国缅因州Ｈｏｌａｎｄ采集的针叶林数据吻合。基于ＬｉＳｔｒａｈｌｅｒ几何光学相互遮蔽模型，用参数化的光谱分量特征对老松林和老云杉林的方向反射进行估计，其结果与在不同太阳与观测方向上的ＰＡＲＡＢＯＬＡ测量值匹配得很好。     

东半球500hPa闭合低压系统的统计分析

通过分析５００ｈＰａ东半球闭合低压系统，研究其气候规律。低压活动次数有年际、月际、季际变化。低压活动于中高纬度带，主要集中于两大地区，第一区是西太平洋及大陆东岸，第二区是东欧地区。第一区中心夏季向西移到大陆上，强度增大，对中国气候有重要作用。低压中心高度值的频数分布是双峰型。低压生命期比阻塞高压还长些。强低压主要出现在大陆高纬地带和西太平洋。强发展的低压多数出现在西太平洋。亚洲低压移动路径有两条，一条从西西伯利亚北部到库页岛，一条从咸海东移到库页岛     

DOES WIND STRESS DEPEND ON SEA-STATE OR NOT? – A STATISTICAL ERROR ANALYSIS OF HEXMAX DATA

There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up.     

UNIVERSALITY OF THE LAGRANGIAN VELOCITY STRUCTURE FUNCTION CONSTANT (C0) ACROSS DIFFERENT KINDS OF TURBULENCE

In this paper, we evaluate the Lagrangian velocity structure function constant, C0, in the inertial subrange by comparing experimental diffusion data and simulation results obtained with applicable Lagrangian stochastic models. We find in several different flows (grid turbulence, laboratory boundary-layer flow and the atmospheric surface layer under neutral stratification) the value for C0 is 3.0 ± 0.5. We also identify the reasons responsible for earlier studies having not reached the present result.