Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Long-distance correlation between tectonic-controlled, isolated carbonate platforms by cyclostratigraphy and sequence stratigraphy in the Devonian of South China

During the early Middle Devonian in South China, an extensive carbonate platform was broken up through extension to create a complex pattern of platforms, and interplatform basins. In Givetian and Frasnian carbonate successions, five depositional facies, including peritidal, restricted shallow subtidal, semi‐restricted subtidal, intermediate subtidal and deep subtidal facies, and 18 lithofacies units are recognized from measured sections on three isolated platforms. These deposits are arranged into metre‐scale, upward‐shallowing peritidal and subtidal cycles. Nine third‐order sequences are identified from changes in cycle stacking patterns, vertical facies changes and the stratigraphic distribution of subaerial exposure indicators. These sequences mostly consist of a lower transgressive part and an upper regressive part. Transgressive packages are dominated by thicker‐than‐average subtidal cycles, and regressive packages by thinner‐than‐average peritidal cycles. Sequence boundaries are transitional zones composed of stacked, high‐frequency, thinner‐than‐average cycles with upward‐increasing intensity of subaerial exposure, rather than individual, laterally traceable surfaces. These sequences can be further grouped into catch‐up and keep‐up sequence sets from the long‐term (second‐order) changes in accommodation and vertical facies changes. Catch‐up sequences are characterized by relatively thick cycle packages with a high percentage of intermediate to shallow subtidal facies, and even deep subtidal facies locally within some individual sequences, recording long‐term accommodation gain. Keep‐up sequences are characterized by relatively thin cycle packages with a high percentage of peritidal facies within sequences, recording long‐term accommodation loss. Correlation of long‐term accommodation changes expressed by Fischer plots reveals that during the late Givetian to early Frasnian increased accommodation loss on platforms coincided with increased accommodation gain in interplatform basins. This suggests that movement on faults resulted in the relative uplift of platforms and subsidence of interplatform basins. In the early Frasnian, extensive siliceous deposits in most interplatform basins and megabreccias at basin margins correspond to exposure disconformities on platforms.     

Shear-zone controlled basins in the Blouberg area, Northern Province, South Africa: syn- and post-tectonic sedimentation relating to ca. 2.0 Ga reactivation of the Limpopo Belt

The extent of the deposition and of the preservation of the Blouberg Formation and Waterberg Group was at least partially controlled by brittle reactivation along the Palala Shear Zone. The Palala Shear Zone in the Blouberg area (Northern Province, South Africa) is characterised by granulite-grade gneiss, and formed by sinistral transpressional collision between the Southern Marginal Zone (Kaapvaal Craton) and the Central Zone of the Limpopo Belt. The Limpopo collision is thought to have occurred either at 2.0 Ga or at 2.7 Ga with reactivation at 2.0 Ga. Deposition of the Blouberg Formation was characterised by syn-sedimentary tectonism, which is reflected by a sudden upward coarsening in sedimentary rocks, and by the presence of a strongly folded and thrusted lower member. Bedding orientations and slickenside lineation orientations suggest that vergence was towards the south, and such a tectonism can be inferred to have produced a highland area to the north, bound on the southern margin by the southern strand of the Melinda Fault. The presence of an inferred northerly upland area is supported by palaeocurrent directions and the preservational extent of the Setlaole and Makgabeng Formations of the Waterberg Group (post-Blouberg Formation). The extent and stratigraphy of the overlying Mogalakwena Formation suggests that these strata onlapped northwards over the denuding highlands. Younger Sibasa basalts of the Soutpansberg Group have been dated at ca. 1.85 Ga. Blouberg and Waterberg strata can therefore be interpreted as syn- and post-tectonic sedimentary rocks, respectively, following a ca. 2.0 reactivation event along the Palala Shear Zone. It is difficult to reconcile the succession of geological events at Blouberg with a ca. 2.0 Ga Limpopo orogeny, and thus sedimentary strata in the study area support a 2.7 Ga date for Limpopo collision, with syn-Blouberg tectonism relating to ca. 2.0 reactivation within the previously assembled Limpopo Belt.     

Efficacy of Selected Compounds on Thermocyclops oblongatus,one of the Main Intermediate Hosts of Guinea Worm in Africa

Ten selected compounds were tested on Thermocyclops oblongatus to determine their ability to be used for treatment of drinking water sources. None were shown to be interesting for individual application in household water tanks. Tested compounds, such as potassium permanganate or chlorine-releasing products, were ineffective or affected dramatically the taste or colour of the water. For collective application in water sources, temephos appeared to be the most valuable pesticide because it was effective against cyclops and harmless for environment. Other pesticides should be proposed as substitutes in case of cyclops resistance to temephos.     

陕南膨胀土及其滑坡灾害研究

膨胀土在陕南汉江流域的汉中盆地、西乡盆地及安康盆地分布广泛，其面积约达1300km2，占汉江流域中3个盆地面积的1/2以上. 由于膨胀土土体的胀缩变形和土体结构变异，导致滑坡灾害广泛发育，致使工程建筑和农田破坏，给国家和人民造成了巨大的经济损失，因此，研究陕南膨胀土及其滑坡灾害，不论在理论和实践等方面，对陕南的经济建设都具有十分重要的意义.     

南海双船地震勘探介绍

双船地震法包括ESP和SAP法是研究地壳深部结构和构造的有效方法.本文介绍了这两种方法资料处理的主要问题和步骤.预处理工作主要是解决在海洋动态环境下,两船和两套系统同时工作带来的一系列与定位、计时和地震系统有关的问题.着重介绍了用ESP的τ-p记录及x-t域记录进行速度分析的各种方法,它们大都不受反射波时距曲线是双曲线假设的限制.各种方法有各自的特点和限制,用户可根据实际工作的条件和需要选用.SAP的资料处理按四个子系统分别进行,处理方法与一般水平叠加剖面的常规处理相同,获得高质量剖面的关键是求准各层速度得到符合实际情况的叠加速度文件.仔细对比四个子剖面,反复进行处理,最后再有条件地将四个子剖面合成浅、中、深都清晰的合成排列剖面.在资料处理和解释过程中,两种方法相互配合、互为补充.     

白龙江沿岸垂直气候与花椒立体栽植

通过对白龙江沿岸垂直气候分析和花椒生长的实地调查以及栽植试验，将该地花椒的立体种植划分出四个层次。每个层次有其适宜的品种，以期每个层次栽植的花椒尽可能充分利用该层次的气候资源，获得较好的收益。     

Tectono-Sedimentary History of Southeastern Coast Region,China:a Synthesis

According to the ideas and concepts of systems dynamic of continent structure, using previous information related to the study area, combining analyses on orogenic belt, basin and magmatic rock, the present paper synthesizes the tectono-sedimentary development of southeastern coast region, China, with special emphasis on the mountain making, basining and magmafc activity. The tectonic evolution after Late Caledonian orogeny was dominated by alternating rifting and converging, subsiding and uplifting, mountain making and basining in central and southern parts of southeastern China and the adjacent regions to the east and west. Seventeen geologic events, nine events of plate or terrain convergence , and continental crust accretion, as well as eight events of intracontinental rifting and basin faulting , are closely related to the tectonic and sedimentary evolution of the study area. The accompanied intense and frequent sedimentation , folding , faulting , magmatism and ore-forming process allowed huge coal     

华南金矿二元混合成矿模式

根据华南六个有代表性金矿的成矿时代、断裂构造、围岩、侵入岩、中基性岩墙、成矿类型、成矿阶段，矿石组成、成矿温度、包裹体成分以及稳定同位素等多方面研究，发现华南大部分金矿具有共同特征；主要成矿时代为燕山期，远落后于围岩时代；是沿地壳级大断裂形成的后生矿床，六个金矿的铅同位素组成可分出高值区（组）和低值区（组），表明成矿物质有深浅两个不同来源；不同金矿氢、氧同位素指示成矿热液水为深源岩浆水与古大气降水     

南海南部地洼区新构造运动及其动力学机制

本文根据南海南部地洼区的岩石圈动力学环境，把本区新构造运动类型划分为拉张型、挤压型、平移剪切型和旋动型，并对其构造演化与动力学模式进行了初步分析。