集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...     

Analytical Solution of Coupled Perturbation of Tesseral Harmonic Terms of Mars's Non-Spherical Gravitational Potential

The non-spherical gravitational potential of the planet Mars is sig- nificantly different from that of the Earth. The magnitudes of Mars’ tesseral harmonic coefficients are basically ten times larger than the corresponding val- ues of the Earth. Especially, the magnitude of its second degree and order tesseral harmonic coefficient J_2,2 is nearly 40 times that of the Earth, and approaches to the one tenth of its second zonal harmonic coefficient J₂. For a low-orbit Mars probe, if the required accuracy of orbit prediction of 1-day arc length is within 500 m (equivalent to the order of magnitude of 10−4 standard unit), then the coupled terms of J2 with the tesseral harmonics, and even those of the tesseral harmonics themselves, which are negligible for the Earth satellites, should be considered when the analytical perturbation solution of its orbit is built. In this paper, the analytical solutions of the coupled terms are presented. The anal- ysis and numerical verification indicate that the effect of the above-mentioned coupled perturbation on the orbit may exceed 10⁻⁴ in the along-track direc- tion. The conclusion is that the solutions of Earth satellites cannot be simply used without any modification when dealing with the analytical perturbation solutions of Mars-orbiting satellites, and that the effect of the coupled terms of Mars's non-spherical gravitational potential discussed in this paper should be taken into consideration.     

中国春季沙尘暴的趋势变化及年代际变化

利用奇异谱分析等方法,对北疆等7个区春季1960—2000年的沙尘暴日数的趋势和周期进行了初步分析,结果表明：除北疆区未表现出明显的趋势外,南疆区等其它6个区春季沙尘暴日数变化总的趋势是减少的,都是在20世纪60年代和70年代偏多,80年代沙尘暴开始减少,90年代最少;其中南疆区、河西区和东北区的年代际变化最为明显,大约是80年代初开始沙尘暴明显减少,其它几个区的年代际变化不是很明显。南疆等大部分地区春季的沙尘暴日数在70年代末和80年代初发生了由多到少的转变,基本上与北半球大气环流的调整同步,这可能是对大气环流调整的响应;除西藏区有7．7年的周期外,其它6个区的周期基本上都集中在准2年和5～6年两个周期段。     

Position and velocity perturbations for the determination of geopotential from space geodetic measurements

Although space geodetic observing systems have been advanced recently to such a revolutionary level that low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites can now be tracked almost continuously and at the unprecedented high accuracy, none of the three basic methods for mapping the Earth’s gravity field, namely, Kaula linear perturbation, the numerical integration method and the orbit energy-based method, could meet the demand of these challenging data. Some theoretical effort has been made in order to establish comparable mathematical modellings for these measurements, notably by Mayer-Gürr et al. (J Geod 78:462–480, 2005). Although the numerical integration method has been routinely used to produce models of the Earth’s gravity field, for example, from recent satellite gravity missions CHAMP and GRACE, the modelling error of the method increases with the increase of the length of an arc. In order to best exploit the almost continuity and unprecedented high accuracy provided by modern space observing technology for the determination of the Earth’s gravity field, we propose using measured orbits as approximate values and derive the corresponding coordinate and velocity perturbations. The perturbations derived are quasi-linear, linear and of second-order approximation. Unlike conventional perturbation techniques which are only valid in the vicinity of reference mean values, our coordinate and velocity perturbations are mathematically valid uniformly through a whole orbital arc of any length. In particular, the derived coordinate and velocity perturbations are free of singularity due to the critical inclination and resonance inherent in the solution of artificial satellite motion by using various types of orbital elements. We then transform the coordinate and velocity perturbations into those of the six Keplerian orbital elements. For completeness, we also briefly outline how to use the derived coordinate and velocity perturbations to establish observation equations of space geodetic measurements for the determination of geopotential.     

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

无旋转倾角的NAV/CNAV型GEO广播星历拟合

目前北斗GEO的星历拟合算法和用户卫星位置算法均引进了人为设置的5°倾角旋转,此外,少数星历参数还有超限现象。取消GEO的旋转倾角和抑制参数超限能够统一北斗混合星座的用户算法。基于第一类无奇点根数,分析了无旋转倾角的GEO两步法星历参数拟合算法。讨论了GEO的参数超限原因,提出采用固定1至2个超限参数取值的缩减参数拟合法。北斗GEO卫星在非地影期和地影期的拟合试验表明,拟合成功率和拟合精度能够保证,拟合用户距离误差(URE)的平均值优于3mm;缩减参数拟合法能够抑制特定时段下的参数超限问题,但是拟合URE放大到2cm。     

基于动力降尺度的区域集合预报初值扰动构建方法研究

利用全球集合预报系统资料(Global Ensemble Forecast System,GEFS),基于WRF中尺度模式构建了区域集合预报系统,区域集合初值的构建采用两种方案,一种是GEFS全球集合预报初值场直接动力降尺度(称为DOWN集合),另一种是提取GEFS全球集合降尺度后的扰动场,并叠加到区域数值预报系统(北京快速更新循环数值预报系统:Beijing Rapid Update Cycle System,BJ-RUC)分析场上构建集合初值场(称为D-RUC集合)。进行了批量试验,通过对比发现D-RUC集合的中小尺度扰动增长优于DOWN集合,而大尺度扰动分量的增长两者相当,说明与高分辨率分析场叠加可以促进动力降尺度扰动的中小尺度扰动分量的增长。集合预报扰动准确性检验结果显示,短预报时效内DOWN集合扰动明显低估了预报误差,在预报误差较大的位置扰动较小,而D-RUC集合能够更好地识别预报场中哪些位置预报误差较大,而哪些位置预报误差较小。集合预报检验结果表明,D-RUC方法能显著改善短时效预报效果,集合离散度有所增加、均方根误差有所减少,概率预报评分显示D-RUC集合比DOWN集合在短预报时效占优。降水个例分析结果表明D-RUC方法能显著改善短时效内的降水概率预报效果。     

局部地形校正的精密算法

对局部地形校正中的中央区奇异积分部分进行非奇变换,使用Simpson公式和Cotes公式推导出两种中央区的数值计算方法。试算结果表明,新方法可有效地提高地形校正的精度。     

The application of a shift theorem analysis technique to multipoint measurements

A Fourier domain technique has been proposed previously which, in principle, quantifies the extent to which multipoint in-situ measurements can identify whether or not an observed structure is time stationary in its rest frame. Once a structure, sampled for example by four spacecraft, is shown to be quasi-stationary in its rest frame, the structure’s velocity vector can be determined with respect to the sampling spacecraft. We investigate the properties of this technique, which we will refer to as a stationarity test, by applying it to two point measurements of a simulated boundary layer. The boundary layer was evolved using a PIC (particle in cell) electromagnetic code. Initial and boundary conditions were chosen such, that two cases could be considered, i.e. a spacecraft pair moving through (1) a time stationary boundary structure and (2) a boundary structure which is evolving (expanding) in time. The code also introduces noise in the simulated data time series which is uncorrelated between the two spacecraft. We demonstrate that, provided that the time series is Hanning windowed, the test is effective in determining the relative velocity between the boundary layer and spacecraft and in determining the range of frequencies over which the data can be treated as time stationary or time evolving. This work presents a first step towards understanding the effectiveness of this technique, as required in order for it to be applied to multispacecraft data.