The Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOPs of Three Typhoon Events

In this paper, several sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were designed for three typhoon cases to determine whether or not the additional observation data in the sensitive regions identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) could improve the short-range forecast of typhoons. The results show that the CNOPs capture the sensitive regions for typhoon forecasts, which implies that conducting additional observation in these specific regions and eliminating initial errors could reduce forecast errors. It is inferred from the results that dropping sondes in the CNOP sensitive regions could lead to improvements in typhoon forecasts.     

Measurement of the Dielectric Properties of Volcanic Scoria and Basalt at 9370 MHz

Dielectric data for volcanic scoria and basalt on the earth at microwave frequency are extremely sparse, and also crucial for volcanic terrains imaging, and development. In consideration of their similarity to lunar regolith (soils and rocks) in chemical and mineral composition, the dielectric data is significative for passive and active microwave remote sensing on the Moon. This study provides the data about the dielectric properties of three kinds of scoria and two kinds of basalt in China. The method put forward in this paper is also applicable for measuring the dielectric properties of dry rocks and other granular ground materials with low complex dielectric constants. Firstly, the authors measured the ε‘ and tanδ values of strip specimens prepared from the mixture of scoria or basalt powder and polythene with the resonant cavity perturbation method at 9370 MHz. Secondly, from the ε‘ and tang values of the mixture, the ε‘s and tanδs values of sofid scoria and basalt were calculated using Lichtenecker‘s mixture formulae. Finally, the effective complex dielectric constants, ε‘e and tanδs, of scoria at different bulk densities were calculated. The results have shown that the ε‘s and tang svalues of all solid basaltic materials measured (both solid basaltic scoria or basalt) are approximately 7 and 0.05,respectively. With increasing bulk density of scoria, the ε‘s and tanδs values of scoria increase significantly.     

On the Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Predictability Problems Involving "On-Off" Switches

The lower bound of maximum predictable time can be formulated into a constrained nonlinear opti- mization problem, and the traditional solutions to this problem are the filtering method and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. Usually, the CNOP method is implemented with the help of a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint method, which is named the ADJ-CNOP. However, with the increasing improvement of actual prediction models, more and more physical processes are taken into consideration in models in the form of parameterization, thus giving rise to the on-off switch problem, which tremendously affects the effectiveness of the conventional gradient descent algorithm based on the ad- joint method. In this study, we attempted to apply a genetic algorithm (GA) to the CNOP method, named GA-CNOP, to solve the predictability problems involving on-off switches. As the precision of the filtering method depends uniquely on the division of the constraint region, its results were taken as benchmarks, and a series of comparisons between the ADJ-CNOP and the GA-CNOP were performed for the modified Lorenz equation. Results show that the GA-CNOP can always determine the accurate lower bound of maximum predictable time, even in non-smooth cases, while the ADJ-CNOP, owing to the effect of on-off switches, often yields the incorrect lower bound of maximum predictable time. Therefore, in non-smooth cases, using GAs to solve predictability problems is more effective than using the conventional optimization algorithm based on gradients, as long as genetic operators in GAs are properly configured.     

Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander

A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations.The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations.We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method.Because of their relatively large uncertainties,three model parameters were considered:the interfacial friction coefficient,the wind-stress amplitude,and the lateral friction coefficient.We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently,and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 (SPG2) algorithm.Similarly,the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation (CNOP-I) method.Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days.But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P.The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored.Hence,to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model,the initial conditions should first be improved,the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.     

纵向数据混合效应模型的Bayes局部影响

基于分层先验思想,研究了适应于纵向数据的混合效应模型的Bayes局部影响,并根据纵向数据既包含个体又包含个体不同状态的特点,提出了两种便于合理分析数据的扰动方案,导出模型在上述各种扰动下效应参数的Bayes局部影响度量,最后给出实例。     

甘肃北山晚古生代花岗岩体内基性岩墙群弧形展布的成因及其构造意义

在甘肃北山一个东西向展布、椭圆状的晚古生代花岗岩体内主要发育着3期岩墙群,其中中期基性岩墙群最密集,呈现出弧形展布的特征,在该侵入体北部呈北北东向趋势,向南逐渐偏转为北北西向。关于中期岩墙群弧形展布的原因有两种可能的解释,即：纵弯褶皱和应力场扰动。野外观察不支持第一种解释,因为在岩墙或围岩内都没有观察到与褶皱有关的变形构造。本文利用Poly3D软件模拟了近东西向隐伏断层活动对上覆应力场的扰动。计算结果表明,当北北西-南南东向的区域性拉张叠加上沿着隐伏断层发生不协调的右行走滑时,水平大主压应力迹线在隐伏断层上方出现类似的弧形展布。这意味着稍早的花岗岩侵入体冷凝冷却并没有完全焊接地壳内一些大尺度断层,地壳断块的相对独立活动可以造成沿着这些断层发生与区域变形场不协调的右行走向滑动,进而形成岩墙群弧形展布所需要的地应力场。     

摩擦和非线性对斜压初始扰动发展的影响

通过一个二维非线性斜压Eady波模式,讨论了斜压系统中初始扰动快速发展的动力学机制.由于斜压切变气流存在,其对扰动位涡的平流作用可引起初始扰动位涡的"位涡非屏蔽"(potential vorticity unshielding),导致线性系统初始扰动的快速增长.摩擦作用主要通过耗散局地扰动位涡,改变扰动位涡异常结构,特别是水平方向的位涡异常分布,从而减弱初始扰动位涡的"位涡非屏蔽"作用,抑制系统初始扰动动能的快速增长.非线性作用可以抑制较大振幅扰动的增长,同时引起扰动位涡异常丰富的垂直结构产生,导致初始扰动位涡的"位涡非屏蔽"的减弱,从而抑制初始扰动的快速增长.不同的初始扰动结构,可以产生不同的扰动位涡异常结构,相应存在不同的"位涡非屏蔽"作用,导致初始扰动的快速增长过程不同.位涡异常水平结构为"正负正"或"负正负"分布时,有利于初始扰动的快速增长,而上下层异号的扰动位涡异常在垂直方向间隔的距离越大,越有利于初始扰动的快速发展,这些结果进一步深化了对"位涡非屏蔽"的理解.     

基于物理约束扰动的EnSRF雷达资料同化

在完善WRF集合均方根滤波同化系统的双向嵌套预报方案、雷达资料质量控制方案和多微物理过程积分方案的基础上,引入了一种扰动势函数、流函数的尺度较小、物理意义更明显的集合初始扰动新方案.通过台风“桑美”登陆过程中的多普勒雷达资料直接同化试验,对比新扰动方案与目前应用较多的背景误差协方差随机扰动和全场随机扰动方案,对集合滤波同化效果的影响.试验结果表明,3种初始扰动方案都有效改善了台风内部结构,但新方案由于尺度更小、结构更为合理,其同化效果也更为显著,提高了对台风路径、中心最低气压、最大风速及降水的预报质量.     

Dynamic response of double beam rested on stochastic foundation under harmonic moving load

This paper deals with the dynamic response of infinite double Euler–Bernoulli beam supported by elastic foundation with stochastic stiffness subjected to an oscillating moving load, which is the first research in relevant literature review. In this matter, equations of motion for double beam are formulated in a moving frame of reference. Moreover, by employing the first order perturbation theory and calculating contour integration, the response of double beam is obtained analytically and validated by a stochastic finite element model. Sensitivity analyses on the various parameters of closed form solution such as velocity, load frequency, coefficient of variation of soil foundation and rail and slab bending stiffness show the significant effect of load frequency on the dynamic response of the doubled beam. From practical point of view, the obtained results of the present study can be utilized efficiently in analysis and design of slab track systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.